[FRIAM] Agent-Based Modelling of a Blowback - How Terrorists are made

Tue Aug 8 15:11:39 EDT 2006

Frank,

PREDICTION (Co., Inc.) already has a number of stock market simulations
which I believe they have found to be quite useful.

;-}

--Doug

On 8/8/06, Frank Wimberly <wimberly3 at earthlink.net> wrote:
>
> What about the following issue:  I suspect that a simulation
> (agent-based or otherwise) of the "stock market" (e.g. the DJIA) could
> be developed which is statistically indistinguishable from the real
> thing.  That is, the moments, fat tails, etc. would not serve to allow a
> statistician to distinguish between the simulated signal and some, as
> yet unobserved, actual data.  Yet, such a simulation would have no
> predictive value except on some set of measure zero.  However similar to
> the real world the simulation is, it won't tell you the level of the
> DJIA next Tuesday.  How is it possible to make simulations useful for
> PREDICTION?
>
> Frank
>
> ---
> Frank C. Wimberly
> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz(505) 995-8715 or (505) 670-9918 (cell)
> Santa Fe, NM 87505wimberly3 at earthlink.net
> -----Original Message-----
> From: friam-bounces at redfish.com [mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com] On
> Behalf Of Robert Cordingley
> Sent: Tuesday, August 08, 2006 12:53 PM
> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Agent-Based Modelling of a Blowback - How
> Terrorists are made
>
> The recent discussions on developing models for political analysis have
> been very interesting. I fully expect that to persuade folks
> (policymakers and business leaders) to part with their organization's
> time and money will require demonstrable results. Demonstrating one can
> build a model and show life-like performance is great, but proving it
> has value, matches reality and isn't just another SimCity seems to me to
> be what's missing. I know this is a bootstrap problem, if one could get
> the funding one would be sure it would prove itself.
>
> The question has to be answered: does the process work in this domain?
> Do the ethnographic studies, the incorporation of the best political
> advisors, etc., perhaps with the use of all the computing power you can
> dream of, along with the latest and sharpest computing tools produce a
> system that has measurable performance against the real world. What is
> the probability that when X is tested, Y will occur? When does chaos
> takeover? Is it meaningful in the time it takes to implement policy?
> Having performance based results are key to success and probably not
> readily shared. (For example, if someone has a functioning model of the
> stock market that works, I'd expect them to keep it a pretty closely
> guarded secret.)
>
> I'd recommend studies be done on a small scale perhaps to model the
> performance of island or tribal cultures. With solid performance data
> that proves the technology, one can build a case for larger
> implementations. Do such results exist?
>
> Robert
> (my 2c)
>
>
> Justin Lyon wrote:
> Jochen,
>
> 20/20 hindsight can only be turned into 20/20 foresight with simulation.
>
> Yet, for some reason, I have repeatedly failed to convince policymakers
> of this in numerous meetings.
>
> I did an analysis for one of my MIT classes using strategy dynamics
> (basically, a dumbed down version of system dynamics for non-math
> people) to look at the growth of islamists in Afghanistan during the
> 80s.
>
> I hypothesized that the use of strategy dynamics by intelligence
> agencies would make sense as a way of developing a framework for
> analyzing complex situations and providing clear insights into possible
> future issues, including possible blowback situations.
>
> I then worked with Dr. Warren (an LBS professor who was teaching system
> dynamics at MIT via distance learning) and some other colleagues to use
> strategy dynamics to look at the conflict in Sierra Leonne and we had
> the opportunity to present the findings to the director of the
> secretary-generals office of the UN in New York.
>
> In both cases, I tried to get more funding to explore using strategy
> dynamics and system dynamics to analyze terrorists issues, but failed to
>
> know the right people or how to navigate the paperwork to secure
> funding. Since it's easier selling work to corporations, that is where I
>
> focus.
>
> But, I still remain convinced that system dynamics, enhanced with agent
> based models, in a hybrid model using software like NetLogo or AnyLogic
> would be a powerful tool for intelligence purposes.
>
> The strategy dynamics process is well-suited to gathering data in a
> structured manner that can be easily fed to analysts back home. I call
> it developing a strategic simulation architecture (SSA). It can be
> taught to people in a few weeks.
>
> We even discussed training people at the UN and with the head of police
> in Sierra Leonne who got it but, once again, we were stymied by lack of
> funding.
>
> The key benefit of strategy dynamics, system dynamics and agent based
> models are their  ability to deal with intangibles, such as the
> accumulation of anger in a given population and then provide insights
> into plausible scenarios on how that anger impacts the inflow of new
> recruits into terrorist organizations.
>
> See my short paper here for more:
> http://s158641480.onlinehome.us/public/DS-004_SSA_Terrorism_V0-5_en.doc
>
> Would love to hear your thoughts as the paper has languished in
> obscurity since I wrote it in 2001.
>
> :-P
>
> Best,
> Justin
>
> Jochen Fromm wrote:
>
>
> If the USA delivers weapons and military knowledge to autonomous
> parties in instable countries like Israel, Afghanistan and the
> former Iraq and even trains people there to fight, it is of course
> not surprising at all (perhaps even unavoidable) that eventually
> these weapons will be used for an unintended purpose against the
> will of the US, especially if all these people can do and have
> learned is to fight.
>
> Although it is therefore obvious that a blowback can happen
> in this case, it would perhaps interesting to find out the
> circumstances when it happens exactly, for example by simulating
> the phenomenon with agent-based modelling in the way Marcus mentioned
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blowback_(intelligence)
>
> I guess one sequence how terrorists are made goes in
> a chain of events like this:
> 1. A superpower first delivers weapons and military knowledge
>   to autonomous parties or groups in instable countries
>   (according to the proverb "The enemy of my enemy is my friend")
> 2. The autonomous parties succeed in their conflict, fight or
>   resistance against something, e.g. an occupier or aggressor
>   (Bin Laden was successful against the Russian occupier)
> 3. The autonomous parties do something that is not intended
>   by the superpower (for example bombing embassies in their
>   home countries)
> 4. The superpower turns against the autonomous parties, threatens
>   them or tries to eliminate them (the Clinton administration for
>   example tried to eliminate Bin Laden with a Cruise missile attack)
> 5. The autonomous parties react: they are going mad (become terrorists)
>   and plan a terrorist attack on the superpower
>
> Terms are relative: the terrorist for one is a freedom fighter
> for the other and vice versa.
>
> -J.
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Marcus G. Daniels
> Sent: Tuesday, August 08, 2006 7:32 AM
> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Friam Digest, Vol 38, Issue 3
>
> [...]
>
> Zbigniew Brzezinski might have pondered "if we fund the Mujahideen to
> fight the Soviets, what's the likelihood these people will endure and
> extend their narcissistic rage toward the United States [as
> Al-Qaeda]".   Or the Mossad might have thought more carefully about how
> much rope they extended to the Hamas.   A computer simulation that
> tracked these organizations as existing and intermixing with the general
>
> population (trying to spread their message) could provide some risk
> profile for the kind of damage they could do.  It would at least remind
> elected officials in later years of the fact they exist at all.
>
> [...]
>
> I see such a model as sort of thermometer to answer questions like:
>
> Who is mad
> What are they doing now (as a group, relevant to the conflict)
> What could they do in the next week, month & year, if they achieve it
> What can't they do in the next week, month & year if they are stopped
> Where are they
> Who are they connected to as allies and as enemies
> What do they want
> What do they need
> What do they believe and how mutable is it
>
>
>
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>
>
>
>
>
> ============================================================
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
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>
>
>
>
>
> ============================================================
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
>

-- 
Doug Roberts, RTI International
droberts at rti.org
doug at parrot-farm.net
505-455-7333 - Office
505-670-8195 - Cell
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