[FRIAM] Simulation and policy-making

[Robert Holmes]

Here's a quote from a letter in this week's Economist about how to use big
economic models:

The root of many problems lies not in the [economic] models themselves but
in the way in which they are used. Too often we ask "What will happen?",
trapping us into the mug's game of prediction, when the real question should
be: "Given that we cannot predict, what is our best move today?"...Instead
of determining the "best" model that solves optimal strategies we should
instead seek the most "robust" model that achieves a given level of
"goodness" across myriad models and uses assumptions consistent with known
facts. My colleagues and I use such methods to address intractable policy
issues fraught with arguments over which model is "right", what assumptions
are valid and what is the nature of the good? This method makes the decision
to be informed part of the analysis itself and the results are more readily
accepted by policymakers.

That was from a senior economist at RAND. So it looks as if at least some
members of the current military-industrial complex are using simulations in
a sensible and valid way (certainly with more sense and validity than a lot
of the academic papers I see).

So if 'valid' simulations are being used to give the 'wrong' answers, what
does that tell us about simulation? Is there ever any hope of objectivity
(I'll give away the answer to that: no) or do all social simulations -
political or economic - inevitably reflect the prejudices of their author or
funder?

Robert
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: /pipermail/friam_redfish.com/attachments/20060808/8319a729/attachment.html