[FRIAM] Simulation and policy-making

[Douglas Roberts]

Re: simulation and policy-making, a project that my group is working on at
the request of the current Washington administration is helping to do just
that.  At the request of a consortium of representatives from the White
House, Dept of Treasury, DHS, Dept. of State, and a few other cabinet-level
political types, we have run numerous simulation experimental designs to
establish the bounds of the effectiveness of various intervention strategies
for containing an H5N1 pandemic, should it occur in the US.  We are using
three simulation codes: EpiSims, Epicast, and one from the Imperial College
in the UK. The name of the project is "Models of Infectious Disease Agent
Study" (MIDAS), and it is funded by NIH.  See

http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/press/releases/press02202006.html and
http://usinfo.state.gov/gi/Archive/2005/Aug/08-339612.html

or do a google search on "MIDAS bird flu policy" for more info.

--Doug

On 8/8/06, Robert Holmes <robert at holmesacosta.com> wrote:
>
> Oh I thank RAND are probably plenty ambitious in what they simulate for
> the US govt. Just check out their research areas:
> http://www.rand.org/research_areas/
>
> Robert
>
>
> On 8/8/06, mgd at santafe.edu <mgd at santafe.edu> wrote:
> >
> > Quoting Robert Holmes <robert at holmesacosta.com>:
> >
> > > So if 'valid' simulations are being used to give the 'wrong' answers,
> > what
> > > does that tell us about simulation? Is there ever any hope of
> > objectivity
> > > (I'll give away the answer to that: no) or do all social simulations -
> > > political or economic - inevitably reflect the prejudices of their
> > author or
> > > funder?
> >
> > Validated simulations, by definition, reproduce something that the
> > authors (or
> > funders) deem relevant as a performance metric.  But that's not a
> > problem with
> > models or simulations, assuming the metrics are documented.  If the
> > authors or
> > funders are prone to choosing easy, low dimensional things to fit, they
> > just
> > need to be more ambitious.
> >
> > ============================================================
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> >
>
>
> ============================================================
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
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>
>


-- 
Doug Roberts, RTI International
droberts at rti.org
doug at parrot-farm.net
505-455-7333 - Office
505-670-8195 - Cell
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