[FRIAM] Agent-Based Modelling

[Jochen Fromm]

I am not sure if agent-based modelling offers better insight
than the knowledge of history combined with common sense,
but it is probably much better than Game Theory and pure
mathematical analysis. One problem is the myriad ways in which 
actors in societies can interact with each other: if seventy 
agents were lining up to enter a gate, there are 70! different 
ways how this could be arranged ( which equals roughly 10^100, see
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Googol )

Another factor that makes modeling of real societies difficult 
is the intractable individual behavior (which depends on 
prejudices, preferences, personal experiences, etc.).
Jared Diamond writes in his No.1 bestseller "Collapse"
in chapter 9 "Opposite Paths to Success/Other Successes"
that even "...people with long-term stakes don't always
act wisely. Often they still prefer short-term goals, and
often again they do things that are foolish in both the
short term and the long term. That's what makes biography
and history infinitely more complicated and less predictable
than the courses of chemical reactions..."

-J.
________________________________

From: Robert Cordingley
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Agent-Based Modelling of a Blowback - How Terrorists
are made

[...]

The question has to be answered: does the process work in this 
domain?  Do the ethnographic studies, the incorporation of the 
best political advisors, etc., perhaps with the use of all the 
computing power you can dream of, along with the latest and 
sharpest computing tools produce a system that has measurable 
performance against the real world.  What is the probability 
that when X is tested, Y will occur?  When does chaos takeover?  
Is it meaningful in the time it takes to implement policy?   
Having performance based results are key to success and probably 
not readily shared.