[FRIAM] Simulation and policy-making

[McNamara, Laura A]

Computational social science doesn't lend itself to V&V the way that physics-based mod-sim does, so creativity in V&V is required.  

But when it comes to policy making, then, the question is, "What does it mean to use modeling and simulation tools appropriately in producing knowledge that will feed into policy decisions?" The answer to this question is going to vary depending on the time scale for the decision (longer term planning vs. shorter term, highly tactical decision making).There are probably lots of other issues as well that I'm not thinking of because I really need another cup of coffee after a long night of lightning, thunder and terrified dogs.  That said, I think what Doug described below - experimental design, different modeling and simulation packages, expertise and care - is a great start.  

Those of you attending  FRIAM on the 18th of August...  I'll be there with my Sandia buddy, Tim Trucano, and we're thinking about models, V&V, uncertainty, and policy-making pretty carefully these days because of some work we're pursuing with the Department of Defense.   We'd love to engage in a good solid discussion about this topic with the FRIAM brain trust, so bring your ideas along. 

Laura


-----Original Message-----
From: friam-bounces at redfish.com on behalf of Douglas Roberts
Sent: Tue 8/8/2006 7:40 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Simulation and policy-making
 
Re: simulation and policy-making, a project that my group is working on at
the request of the current Washington administration is helping to do just
that.  At the request of a consortium of representatives from the White
House, Dept of Treasury, DHS, Dept. of State, and a few other cabinet-level
political types, we have run numerous simulation experimental designs to
establish the bounds of the effectiveness of various intervention strategies
for containing an H5N1 pandemic, should it occur in the US.  We are using
three simulation codes: EpiSims, Epicast, and one from the Imperial College
in the UK. The name of the project is "Models of Infectious Disease Agent
Study" (MIDAS), and it is funded by NIH.  See

http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/press/releases/press02202006.html and
http://usinfo.state.gov/gi/Archive/2005/Aug/08-339612.html

or do a google search on "MIDAS bird flu policy" for more info.

--Doug

On 8/8/06, Robert Holmes <robert at holmesacosta.com> wrote:
>
> Oh I thank RAND are probably plenty ambitious in what they simulate for
> the US govt. Just check out their research areas:
> http://www.rand.org/research_areas/
>
> Robert
>
>
> On 8/8/06, mgd at santafe.edu <mgd at santafe.edu> wrote:
> >
> > Quoting Robert Holmes <robert at holmesacosta.com>:
> >
> > > So if 'valid' simulations are being used to give the 'wrong' answers,
> > what
> > > does that tell us about simulation? Is there ever any hope of
> > objectivity
> > > (I'll give away the answer to that: no) or do all social simulations -
> > > political or economic - inevitably reflect the prejudices of their
> > author or
> > > funder?
> >
> > Validated simulations, by definition, reproduce something that the
> > authors (or
> > funders) deem relevant as a performance metric.  But that's not a
> > problem with
> > models or simulations, assuming the metrics are documented.  If the
> > authors or
> > funders are prone to choosing easy, low dimensional things to fit, they
> > just
> > need to be more ambitious.
> >
> > ============================================================
> > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> > lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
> >
>
>
> ============================================================
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
>
>


-- 
Doug Roberts, RTI International
droberts at rti.org
doug at parrot-farm.net
505-455-7333 - Office
505-670-8195 - Cell

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