[FRIAM] A billion agents

[David Breecker]

One is tempted to say that the arbitragers are effective(ly) modelers ;-)
  ----- Original Message ----- 
  From: Robert Holmes 
  To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
  Sent: Tuesday, October 10, 2006 10:09 AM
  Subject: Re: [FRIAM] A billion agents




  On 10/9/06, Douglas Roberts <doug at parrot-farm.net> wrote:
    Interesting, Ray.  A number of years ago a couple of LANL program managers and I went back to Washington to try to interest DOE in an ABM that was intended to do exactly what you describe blow.  In addition, the simulation would have allowed market gaming scenarios to be run for analyzing how the power arbitragers (remember CalPine?) could game the market (remember all those windfall profits the power companies were making in California a few years back?). 

  <snip>

  It's also interesting to note that many power arbitragers successfully gamed the system without the benefit of massive simulations. It suggests to me that we often get tied up in our own simulation/modeling expertise and forget that there's a lot of practitioners out there with valuable domain expertise. Give an arbitrager a solid financial incentive for finding opportunities to game a system and s/he will find them a whole load faster than a modeler :-) 

  R







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