[FRIAM] LIES, DAMN LIES, AND....

Bill Eldridge dcbill at volny.cz
Wed Sep 20 16:42:31 EDT 2006


Quite the long lasting bounce - reminds me of Phil's .sig.
To answer your question, the Rasmussen confidence level is on the middle 
frame down at the bottom, not too obvious:

    The national telephone survey of 1,500 Adults was conducted by
    Rasmussen Reports over the past three nights. Margin of sampling
    error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
    Methodology <http://www.rasmussenreports.com/methodology.htm>.


*Bush Job Approval*
/Sept 2005 - Current /
  	Approve 	Disapprove
Sep 20 	41 	56
Sep 19 	40 	58
Sep 18 	41 	58
Sep 17 	41 	57
Sep 16 	44 	54
Sep 15 	45 	53
Sep 14 	47 	50
Sep 13 	45 	52
Sep 12 	44 	54
Sep 11 	41 	57
Sep 10 	42 	56
Sep 9 	42 	56
Sep 8 	42 	55



Historical perspective at http://mediamatters.org/columns/200609190002   
via Atrios at Eschaton:

    Here then, is some much-needed historical perspective to put Bush's 
standing in context:

* According to Gallup, on the eve of President John F. Kennedy's 1963 
assassination, he was suffering the worst job-approval ratings of his 
presidency -- 58 percent.
* In 1968, when the war in Vietnam was claiming hundreds of U.S. 
casualties each week, President Lyndon Johnson was considered so 
unpopular that he didn't even run for re-election. Johnson's average 
Gallup approval rating for that year was 43 percent.
* When Reagan's second term was rocked by the Iran-Contra scandal, his 
ratings plummeted, all the way down to 43 percent.
* This year, according to the Gallup numbers, Bush has averaged an 
approval rating of 37 percent.

Joshua Thorp wrote:
> I know that I can easily reveal my statitics ignorance here,  but why 
> can a site like:
> http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Bush_Job_Approval.htm
>
> not have any mention of confidence intervals,  or standard error 
> numbers?  The headline is Bush up 1 point.  In a survey of 1500 
> people,  is that news or noise? 
>
>
> On Sep 20, 2006, at 10:42 AM, Douglas Roberts wrote:
>
>> It must be working for the Republicans.  Bush's approval rating 
>> popped back up to 44% recently.  I contend that if that many people 
>> actually approve of Bush, then America deserves him.
>>
>> On 9/20/06, *Joshua Thorp* <jthorp at redfish.com 
>> <mailto:jthorp at redfish.com>> wrote:
>>
>>     ...Statistics
>>
>>     Interesting blog piece on bias and data massaging in political
>>     science articles.
>>
>>     http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2006_09/009531.php
>>     <http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2006_09/009531.php>
>>
>>
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>>
>>
>>
>> -- 
>> Doug Roberts, RTI International
>> droberts at rti.org <mailto:droberts at rti.org>
>> doug at parrot-farm.net <mailto:doug at parrot-farm.net>
>> 505-455-7333 - Office
>> 505-670-8195 - Cell
>> ============================================================
>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
>> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
>> lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
>
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