[FRIAM] The Origin of Wealth and The God Delusion

[Robert Cordingley]

Justin,

I reviewed and enjoyed your PPT presentation and I must confess got a 
little lost in the economics jargon, but felt impelled to share an 
observation and pose some questions...

At one point you complain of not being able to get the message out to 
the business world and provided a number of good reasons.  However, 
competent businesses are forced to justify their decisions (at least 
internally) while balancing risk.  In any application of computer 
modeling, regardless of the underlying technology (from well established 
engineering principles to system dynamics), for it to be useful it has 
to have predictive capabilities or characteristics.  No one, or at least 
very few in your field, gets specific about predictability.   (In some 
fields there may be a good reason:  If I knew of an accurate way to 
predict stock market behavior and told the world it would probably be 
self defeating.  The presence of the model defeats the model.)  
Competent business people will seek assurances of predictability.

You point to the need to pursue the "Brand Experience Cycle" when 
promoting the discipline of SD/ABM/etc.  Have you applied your own 
technological approach to modeling your own success?  Did you estimate 
the numbers game sales professional insist on knowing:  from x contacts 
y% move to the next stage, z% to the next and so on?  Did you back 
calculate the effort needed to meet your two year goal and what did it 
look like?

In the spectrum of effective computer models, that can vary from 100% 
totally inaccurate to 100% totally accurate, I suspect No Model At All 
is slap bang in the middle.  Convincing managers that your model lies 
firmly on the (predictably) accurate side seems all that is needed to 
close a deal.  I've been there and done that  (but not always.)

As a model (sic) for your discipline (ABM/SD/etc)  have you looked at 
the field of Process Control that uses Model Predictive Control to 
manage difficult manufacturing control problems 
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Model_predictive_control).  It is now, I 
believe, a well established engineering sub-discipline.

Robert C

Justin Lyon wrote:
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> As promised, here is the URL for the Brazil talk I gave.
>
> http://s158641480.onlinehome.us/public/Justin_Lyon__Future_of_Simulation_Brazil_Conference_2006v2.ppt
>
> Download the PPT so you can read the notes on some of the slides.
>
> Any mistakes are mine.
>
> Any surprising insights are the work of other people smarter than me.
>
> :-P
>
> Please point out mistakes to me so I can fix them.
>
> - --
> Best regards,
>
> Justin Lyon
>
> M: +423 663 168892 (Worldwide)
> M: +44 781 480 2797 (London, UK)
>
> O: +1 210 787-3498 (San Antonio, USA)
> O: +44 20 8144 4072  (London, UK)
>
> E: justin at simudyne.com
> W: http://www.simudyne.com
>
> Justin Lyon wrote:
>   
>> Owen and Phil,
>>
>> Traditional economics borrowed ideas from equilibrium physics and tried
>> to force-fit reality to make the math tractable prior to the emergence
>> of computers sufficient to solve the math. No need to do that now.
>>
>> Also, Pareto optimitality is a sacred cow that must be slaughtered.
>>
>> And, the myth of rational humans....hah...that is a good one.
>>
>> I'll find the PPT for the Brazil conference, type up my notes and post
>> it to the web for the group's reading pleasure. The conference
>> organizers recorded the speech and I'll try to hunt down the URL.
>>
>> I will be giving a workshop on simulation in London for a Gartner Group
>> conference where I will elaborate in more detail.
>>
>> http://www.europe.gartner.com/bpm
>>
>>     
>
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> ============================================================
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
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