[FRIAM] Our dilemma with global warming etc.

[Robert Cordingley]

Pimple, bumps on curves, pulse eruptions... I eventually found these 
charts that were part of a presentation given by an energy consultant at 
the 2006 Energy Technology Venture Capital Conference:





In the context of CO2 emissions, I guess the charts say we have already 
put half the carbon in the atmosphere from oil that we can.  The 
problems will be coal and then how to preserve the declining oil supply 
as a feedstock for chemicals, plastics, pharmaceuticals, textiles, etc., 
etc. that we use everyday.  (Imagine taking plastics out of the health 
care infrastructure and see what's left.)  We'll have to mine the city 
dump for feedstock - an energy intensive activity I'm sure.

I found too much uncertainty and vagaries in the IPCC report, by the 
way, to think it can be really useful - but I didn't study it in depth.  
The variation in population growth projections was inconclusive, too 
disparate and may be one of them looked like a "pulse eruption" - lots 
more work to be done.

I wonder how well oil production correlates with human population and 
what the time delay component is.

Robert Cordingley


Marcus G. Daniels wrote:
> Robert Cordingley wrote:
>   
>> Perhaps Phil Henshaw has been warning us that we humans are really in 
>> a 'pulse eruption' type of outbreak (cf his bump curve) as described here:
>>
>>     http://www.ento.vt.edu/~sharov/PopEcol/lec13/classif.html 
>> <http://www.ento.vt.edu/%7Esharov/PopEcol/lec13/classif.html>
>>
>> The job then is to determine when will the collapse come and what 
>> factors might mitigate our future?
>>     
> This is what the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has 
> done.  World economic scenarios are modeled per:
>
> http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission/092.htm
>
> ..yielding these estimates for temperature change.
>
> http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/slides/large/02.18.jpg
>
>
>
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