[FRIAM] The apocalypse

Wed Aug 9 23:34:56 EDT 2017

I'm not following the public debate/discussion on this, but I think we 
discussed this here a few months ago?

Even though I lived and worked in the belly of the (Nuclear Weapons 
Complex) beast for decades, I admit to not knowing with any degree of 
certainty how direct the "Launch Codes" and mechanisms in the various 
command centers (white house situation, Cheyenne Mtn, ???) or via the 
"Nuclear Football"  are connected to the actual launching mechanisms.

I understand that the Nuclear Football is carried by an aide-de-camp 
(who is this for Trump, someone different every day/week?) and can 
imagine that person wrestling it away from him when he is in a fit of 
pique, as might the Sec'y of Defense or one of the Joint Chiefs 
body-check him as he reaches for the "FIRE!" button (is there actually a 
lock-out switch or something involved?).    According to Wikipedia, the 
President's identity must be verified (the purpose of the launch code?) 
which the Sec'y of Defense is burdened with authenticating?   In 
principle, he does not have veto power, but in practice I like to 
visualize "Mad Dog" Madis decking "The Donald" when he tries to launch 
agains NK (or anyone), then politely reaching out to help him up off the 
floor and asking him "are you OK?  are you having a siezure?"  and then 
decking him again, eventually getting some help to haul him off to a 
hospital bed (with restraints) in a padded room in a coma.

I also understand that every "launch site" implements a two-man rule for 
the actual mechanism for arming/launching which I believe means that at 
each launch site we have two more people with "practical" (if not legal) 
veto power.   Meanwhile a (small) host of maintenance and operational 
staff in the subs/silos/bombers have some practical opportunity to at 
least disable (or fail to enable) the warheads or launch capabiities as 
well.

With that model, I would say there are a "few" fuses in the circuit that 
*might* prevent an other-than-sane President from actually effectively 
launching any missiles.   I'm waiting for the "Presidential Order" to 
come down directing that the launch mechanisms be connected directly to 
a twitter feed so that he can launch with nothing more than a clever 
hashtag "#nukemYooge  @NK" or somesuch?!

With the various leaky leaks and the leaking leakers who leak them afoot 
in spite of the AG's "don't do it!" admonition afoot, I would not be 
surprised if there aren't many Silo/Sub/Bomber operations people 
discussing among themselves in 2's and 3's or entire teams "what we do 
if he pulls the trigger??!!!"

I think I'm more worried for Japan than SK or US protectorates or the US 
west coast... seems like an easier target might be Japan (Okinawa is 
fat, but there are several other US Military targets as well).

If Putin was the friend Trump seems to want him to be, HE would take 
care of any retaliation for us I would think?  Let one bully's 
bully-friend smack down the little bully-wanna-be for the first bully?  
Trump is a whackadoodle loose cannon, but Putin is more of a Junkyard 
Dog, probably more intimidating to Kim Jong-Un than the Donald is?   But 
then that probably wouldn't play well with the third nuclear Super Power.

It probably doesn't matter which side of the equator you live in in 
Ecuador, but "back in the day" nuclear winter (and less outrageous 
alternatives) models were more gentle in the southern Hemisphere.

I hate to realize that I am even spending cycles thinking about this!?!

- Steve

On 8/9/17 5:05 PM, Gary Schiltz wrote:
> It's bad enough that he's "out of his friggin' mind", but a CNN piece 
> today asks, "Could Congress stop Trump from bombing North Korea?" The 
> reporter's conclusion is basically that no, it couldn't. I think we 
> all should scared witless that Trump may well pull the trigger. My 
> only hope is that enough high-level generals would risk court martial 
> and refuse to follow his orders. If the USA did launch a pre-emptive 
> nuclear strike, the consequences for S Korea (and Japan?) would be 
> horrific. And then there is the question of what China and Russia 
> would do in response. This is really, really serious crap.
>
> On Wed, Aug 9, 2017 at 5:05 PM, Nick Thompson 
> <nickthompson at earthlink.net <mailto:nickthompson at earthlink.net>> wrote:
>
>     Jochen,
>
>     He’s out of his friggin mind.  There are those who feel that the
>     risk arising from the stultification of our political system was
>     so bad that it justified taking this sort of existential risk
>     (Hey, Dave!), but I am not one of them.  Small interesting things
>     ARE starting to happen, (meetings amongst scared non-crazy people
>     in congress) and I am grateful for those, but whether they will
>     develop in time to rescue us, is by no means certain.
>
>     People keep offering me as comfort the fact that the South Koreans
>     aren’t worried …. 30 million people on the edge of obliteration
>     from conventional shells full of sarin.  Why does that not comfort
>     me?
>
>     No, we are back to the Cuban Missile Crisis.
>
>     Nick
>
>     Nicholas S. Thompson
>
>     Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology
>
>     Clark University
>
>     http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/
>     <http://home.earthlink.net/%7Enickthompson/naturaldesigns/>
>
>     *From:*Friam [mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com
>     <mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com>] *On Behalf Of *Jochen Fromm
>     *Sent:* Wednesday, August 09, 2017 3:34 PM
>     *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
>     <friam at redfish.com <mailto:friam at redfish.com>>
>     *Subject:* [FRIAM] The apocalypse
>
>     What's the matter with your president? I am worried we are heading
>     to the apocalypse. The "fire and fury" threat feels like the Cuban
>     missile crisis or worse.
>
>     http://blog.cas-group.net/2017/08/the-apocalypse/
>     <http://blog.cas-group.net/2017/08/the-apocalypse/>
>
>     And then there is the issue of global warming which the Trump
>     administration ignores now. This is not just one apocalypse, it is
>     two.
>
>     -J.
>
>
>     ============================================================
>     FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
>     Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
>     to unsubscribe
>     http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
>     <http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com>
>     FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
>     <http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/> by Dr. Strangelove
>
>
>
>
> ============================================================
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/attachments/20170809/2d7b339c/attachment-0001.html>