[FRIAM] Climate Change

Fri Dec 29 15:37:32 EST 2017

Climate change is very interesting. There is evidence (as per the graphs in
the 1990 IPCC report) that the climate has changed significantly in the
past. We had a mini ice age that ended about 1850 and since then we had the
industrial revolution with the accomponing rise in CO2.

Show me the climate models that are consistent with the roman warm period,
the medieval warm period, the mini ice age and the modern warm period, then
we talk again.

The IPCC model takes the temperatures since the end of the mini ice age
(1850) till now where the natural climate change would probably have
resulted in an increase in temperatures in any case? (Maybe not, but it's
definitely not inconsistent with previous temperatures).

Now they develop models to prove that the increase in temperatures since
1850 was caused by an increase in CO2 levels? And they admit that the
increase the 15 years prior to the latest report has flattened out
significantly.

I don't disagree with the basic science that CO2 equilibrium climate
sensitivity is about 1 degree centigrade per doubling of atmospheric CO2
levels. But that is probably insignificant compared to natural climate
variability? I don't know? (But neither has the IPCC convinced me that they
have a clue)

On 29 December 2017 at 22:11, Marcus Daniels <marcus at snoutfarm.com> wrote:

> "My problem is that I fear that we have passed the point of no possible
> remedy.  There was a meme which was a graph of global mean temperature for
> the last several centuries.  There was a sharp transient to the high side
> in recent decades."
>
>
> Hippopatumus in Cologne could be fun.
>
>
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eemian
> ------------------------------
> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> on behalf of Frank Wimberly <
> wimberly3 at gmail.com>
> *Sent:* Friday, December 29, 2017 1:04:39 PM
>
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Climate Change
>
> My problem is that I fear that we have passed the point of no possible
> remedy.  There was a meme which was a graph of global mean temperature for
> the last several centuries.  There was a sharp transient to the high side
> in recent decades.
>
> Frank
>
> ----
> Frank Wimberly
> https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Frank_Wimberly2
> Phone (505) 670-9918
>
> On Dec 29, 2017 12:59 PM, "Marcus Daniels" <marcus at snoutfarm.com> wrote:
>
> And of course, the errors can be in either direction.  Large organizations
> tend to avoid controversy, not seek it out.
>
> Other alternative views can be quite terrifying...
>
>
> http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/15/20059/2015/acpd-
> 15-20059-2015.pdf
>
>
> How about boulders like below being tossed around in storms near Miami,
> Shanghai, etc.
>
>
> http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0033589497919268
>
>
> <http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0033589497919268>
> ------------------------------
> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> on behalf of Marcus Daniels <
> marcus at snoutfarm.com>
> *Sent:* Friday, December 29, 2017 12:46:13 PM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Climate Change
>
>
> "In 1990 the IPCC predicted a temperature increase of 0.3
> degrees centigrade per decade. In 2014 they reported an actual increase of
> 0.05 degrees centigrade for the previous 15 years."
>
>
> The second plot gives an idea of how these estimates, based on
> observation, could go wrong.  However, the first plot in the first image
> shows a trend over a larger interval, which is consistent with matching the
> observational & simulation outputs for longer periods.
>
>
>
>
> ------------------------------
> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> on behalf of Pieter Steenekamp <
> pieters at randcontrols.co.za>
> *Sent:* Friday, December 29, 2017 12:16:38 PM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Climate Change
>
> Thank you, I do appreciate.
>
> Let me start with my background. I have done modeling for predictions in
> engineering applications as a major part of my professional career of 40
> years. I am now doing deep learning for making predictions. (Not
> necessarily relevant to this discussion, but I do combine ABM to get the
> emerging properties of the system as part of the deep learning exercise - a
> very exciting endeavor).
>
> In my career, I have made many technical mistakes. I guess this is part of
> making predictions based on models. I do not have any climate modeling
> expertise, but I do measure their success in the accuracy of the model's
> predictions.
>
> In 1990 the IPCC predicted a temperature increase of 0.3
> degrees centigrade per decade. In 2014 they reported an actual increase of
> 0.05 degrees centigrade for the previous 15 years.
>
> Maybe they are right in their new disaster predictions? IMO it would give
> them some credibility if they admit the uncertainties.
>
> On 29 December 2017 at 20:44, uǝlƃ ☣ <gepropella at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> Yes, I think so.  The trick, I think, is to demonstrate respect for those
> with whom we disagree.  If someone posts, without rancor, an argument
> (preferably with data) arguing that the models are wrong in a crucial way,
> I know *I* would be interested.
>
> I've posted tons of contrarian and stubborn, perhaps even stupid, opinions
> and have been treated with respect.
>
>
> On 12/29/2017 10:34 AM, Pieter Steenekamp wrote:
> > Is it possible to have, in this group, a civil discussion where the
> accepted view of the IPCC that unless we reduce CO2 emissions we are
> heading for disaster is challenged?
>
>
> --
> ☣ uǝlƃ
>
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>
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> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
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>
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> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
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