[FRIAM] Climate Change

Fri Dec 29 15:50:09 EST 2017

Well, I live at 7000 feet ASL so at least flooding won't be a problem.
Drought might be, however.

----
Frank Wimberly
https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Frank_Wimberly2
Phone (505) 670-9918

On Dec 29, 2017 1:11 PM, "Marcus Daniels" <marcus at snoutfarm.com> wrote:

> "My problem is that I fear that we have passed the point of no possible
> remedy.  There was a meme which was a graph of global mean temperature for
> the last several centuries.  There was a sharp transient to the high side
> in recent decades."
>
>
> Hippopatumus in Cologne could be fun.
>
>
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eemian
> ------------------------------
> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> on behalf of Frank Wimberly <
> wimberly3 at gmail.com>
> *Sent:* Friday, December 29, 2017 1:04:39 PM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Climate Change
>
> My problem is that I fear that we have passed the point of no possible
> remedy.  There was a meme which was a graph of global mean temperature for
> the last several centuries.  There was a sharp transient to the high side
> in recent decades.
>
> Frank
>
> ----
> Frank Wimberly
> https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Frank_Wimberly2
> Phone (505) 670-9918
>
> On Dec 29, 2017 12:59 PM, "Marcus Daniels" <marcus at snoutfarm.com> wrote:
>
> And of course, the errors can be in either direction.  Large organizations
> tend to avoid controversy, not seek it out.
>
> Other alternative views can be quite terrifying...
>
>
> http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/15/20059/2015/acpd-
> 15-20059-2015.pdf
>
>
> How about boulders like below being tossed around in storms near Miami,
> Shanghai, etc.
>
>
> http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0033589497919268
>
>
> <http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0033589497919268>
> ------------------------------
> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> on behalf of Marcus Daniels <
> marcus at snoutfarm.com>
> *Sent:* Friday, December 29, 2017 12:46:13 PM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Climate Change
>
>
> "In 1990 the IPCC predicted a temperature increase of 0.3
> degrees centigrade per decade. In 2014 they reported an actual increase of
> 0.05 degrees centigrade for the previous 15 years."
>
>
> The second plot gives an idea of how these estimates, based on
> observation, could go wrong.  However, the first plot in the first image
> shows a trend over a larger interval, which is consistent with matching the
> observational & simulation outputs for longer periods.
>
>
>
>
> ------------------------------
> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> on behalf of Pieter Steenekamp <
> pieters at randcontrols.co.za>
> *Sent:* Friday, December 29, 2017 12:16:38 PM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Climate Change
>
> Thank you, I do appreciate.
>
> Let me start with my background. I have done modeling for predictions in
> engineering applications as a major part of my professional career of 40
> years. I am now doing deep learning for making predictions. (Not
> necessarily relevant to this discussion, but I do combine ABM to get the
> emerging properties of the system as part of the deep learning exercise - a
> very exciting endeavor).
>
> In my career, I have made many technical mistakes. I guess this is part of
> making predictions based on models. I do not have any climate modeling
> expertise, but I do measure their success in the accuracy of the model's
> predictions.
>
> In 1990 the IPCC predicted a temperature increase of 0.3
> degrees centigrade per decade. In 2014 they reported an actual increase of
> 0.05 degrees centigrade for the previous 15 years.
>
> Maybe they are right in their new disaster predictions? IMO it would give
> them some credibility if they admit the uncertainties.
>
> On 29 December 2017 at 20:44, uǝlƃ ☣ <gepropella at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> Yes, I think so.  The trick, I think, is to demonstrate respect for those
> with whom we disagree.  If someone posts, without rancor, an argument
> (preferably with data) arguing that the models are wrong in a crucial way,
> I know *I* would be interested.
>
> I've posted tons of contrarian and stubborn, perhaps even stupid, opinions
> and have been treated with respect.
>
>
> On 12/29/2017 10:34 AM, Pieter Steenekamp wrote:
> > Is it possible to have, in this group, a civil discussion where the
> accepted view of the IPCC that unless we reduce CO2 emissions we are
> heading for disaster is challenged?
>
>
> --
> ☣ uǝlƃ
>
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>
>
> ============================================================
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
>
>
> ============================================================
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
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