[FRIAM] Climate Change

Fri Dec 29 16:24:04 EST 2017

Marcus,

I totally agree with you. I don't put any value on what Donald Trump has to
say about climate change either.

Independent of Trump I'm still asking "Show me the climate models that are
consistent with the roman warm period, the medieval warm period, the mini
ice age and the modern warm period, then we talk again."  The IPCC models
do not comply; they use the time period where a warming would probably have
happened in any case.

I'm in Johannesburg, South Africa. It's 11pm Friday here and tomorrow
morning 8am I participate in 5km walk/run event, so I'm off to bed now.
I'll check in tomorrow again.

In the meantime, thanks for the very civil exchange of opinions.

On 29 December 2017 at 22:55, Marcus Daniels <marcus at snoutfarm.com> wrote:

> "Show me the climate models that are consistent with the roman warm
> period, the medieval warm period, the mini ice age and the modern warm
> period, then we talk again."
>
>
> I guess we can count on Trump's administration to fund these very advanced
> multi-scale, multi-epoch models and the planet-sized supercomputers that
> will be needed to run them.  Or maybe we should just rely on his common
> sense and his buddies in industry to tell us what to do.
>
>
> Marcus
>
>
> ------------------------------
> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> on behalf of Pieter Steenekamp <
> pieters at randcontrols.co.za>
> *Sent:* Friday, December 29, 2017 1:37:32 PM
>
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Climate Change
>
> Climate change is very interesting. There is evidence (as per the graphs
> in the 1990 IPCC report) that the climate has changed significantly in the
> past. We had a mini ice age that ended about 1850 and since then we had the
> industrial revolution with the accomponing rise in CO2.
>
> Show me the climate models that are consistent with the roman warm period,
> the medieval warm period, the mini ice age and the modern warm period, then
> we talk again.
>
> The IPCC model takes the temperatures since the end of the mini ice age
> (1850) till now where the natural climate change would probably have
> resulted in an increase in temperatures in any case? (Maybe not, but it's
> definitely not inconsistent with previous temperatures).
>
> Now they develop models to prove that the increase in temperatures since
> 1850 was caused by an increase in CO2 levels? And they admit that the
> increase the 15 years prior to the latest report has flattened out
> significantly.
>
> I don't disagree with the basic science that CO2 equilibrium climate
> sensitivity is about 1 degree centigrade per doubling of atmospheric CO2
> levels. But that is probably insignificant compared to natural climate
> variability? I don't know? (But neither has the IPCC convinced me that they
> have a clue)
>
> On 29 December 2017 at 22:11, Marcus Daniels <marcus at snoutfarm.com> wrote:
>
> "My problem is that I fear that we have passed the point of no possible
> remedy.  There was a meme which was a graph of global mean temperature for
> the last several centuries.  There was a sharp transient to the high side
> in recent decades."
>
>
> Hippopatumus in Cologne could be fun.
>
>
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eemian
> ------------------------------
> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> on behalf of Frank Wimberly <
> wimberly3 at gmail.com>
> *Sent:* Friday, December 29, 2017 1:04:39 PM
>
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Climate Change
>
> My problem is that I fear that we have passed the point of no possible
> remedy.  There was a meme which was a graph of global mean temperature for
> the last several centuries.  There was a sharp transient to the high side
> in recent decades.
>
> Frank
>
> ----
> Frank Wimberly
> https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Frank_Wimberly2
> Phone (505) 670-9918
>
> On Dec 29, 2017 12:59 PM, "Marcus Daniels" <marcus at snoutfarm.com> wrote:
>
> And of course, the errors can be in either direction.  Large organizations
> tend to avoid controversy, not seek it out.
>
> Other alternative views can be quite terrifying...
>
>
> http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/15/20059/2015/acpd-15
> -20059-2015.pdf
>
>
> How about boulders like below being tossed around in storms near Miami,
> Shanghai, etc.
>
>
> http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0033589497919268
>
>
> <http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0033589497919268>
> ------------------------------
> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> on behalf of Marcus Daniels <
> marcus at snoutfarm.com>
> *Sent:* Friday, December 29, 2017 12:46:13 PM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Climate Change
>
>
> "In 1990 the IPCC predicted a temperature increase of 0.3
> degrees centigrade per decade. In 2014 they reported an actual increase of
> 0.05 degrees centigrade for the previous 15 years."
>
>
> The second plot gives an idea of how these estimates, based on
> observation, could go wrong.  However, the first plot in the first image
> shows a trend over a larger interval, which is consistent with matching the
> observational & simulation outputs for longer periods.
>
>
>
>
> ------------------------------
> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> on behalf of Pieter Steenekamp <
> pieters at randcontrols.co.za>
> *Sent:* Friday, December 29, 2017 12:16:38 PM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Climate Change
>
> Thank you, I do appreciate.
>
> Let me start with my background. I have done modeling for predictions in
> engineering applications as a major part of my professional career of 40
> years. I am now doing deep learning for making predictions. (Not
> necessarily relevant to this discussion, but I do combine ABM to get the
> emerging properties of the system as part of the deep learning exercise - a
> very exciting endeavor).
>
> In my career, I have made many technical mistakes. I guess this is part of
> making predictions based on models. I do not have any climate modeling
> expertise, but I do measure their success in the accuracy of the model's
> predictions.
>
> In 1990 the IPCC predicted a temperature increase of 0.3
> degrees centigrade per decade. In 2014 they reported an actual increase of
> 0.05 degrees centigrade for the previous 15 years.
>
> Maybe they are right in their new disaster predictions? IMO it would give
> them some credibility if they admit the uncertainties.
>
> On 29 December 2017 at 20:44, uǝlƃ ☣ <gepropella at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> Yes, I think so.  The trick, I think, is to demonstrate respect for those
> with whom we disagree.  If someone posts, without rancor, an argument
> (preferably with data) arguing that the models are wrong in a crucial way,
> I know *I* would be interested.
>
> I've posted tons of contrarian and stubborn, perhaps even stupid, opinions
> and have been treated with respect.
>
>
> On 12/29/2017 10:34 AM, Pieter Steenekamp wrote:
> > Is it possible to have, in this group, a civil discussion where the
> accepted view of the IPCC that unless we reduce CO2 emissions we are
> heading for disaster is challenged?
>
>
> --
> ☣ uǝlƃ
>
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> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
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> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
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>
> ============================================================
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
>
>
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> ============================================================
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
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