[FRIAM] RedState/BlueState OneState/TwoState

[David Eric Smith]

> Has china actually eliminated the virus from the population and the are merely putting out sparks that have blown in from other places?  

I would bet very high odds that is not the case.

They have probably greatly reduced the caseload.  Friends there say they are rebuilding daily activities (up in Beijing, which was not by far the hardest hit) slowly, carefully, and incrementally.  But not by any stretch is life normal, or expected to revert to normal in any foreseeable future.

There was an NYT piece a few days ago saying that the intelligence dept. is trying to get accurate case numbers because they don’t believe the central government is reporting either honestly or accurately.  That seems a decent bet.  And to the extent that this info is not coming from trump stooges at the top, but being leaked from somewhere in the middle ranks, it is probably coming from committed professionals who are concerned with what is true.

My guess is that the forensics of what is going on in China will take a long time to perform, and probably important information will be suppressed until it can be lost forever.  So for some of it ignoramus et ignoramibus.

All that said, the clamp-down was impressive, and probably fairly effective.  Not a gold standard like Taiwan, but better than any of the major countries in the west, and with a much larger population.

Eric
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