[FRIAM] covid19.healthdata.org

Thu Apr 9 18:34:30 EDT 2020

>From what I've read, it seems to me that if the only way for the virus to
be stopped is for enough people to become immune that it runs out of hosts
in which to reproduce. Immunity could develop in at least three ways: a) be
vaccinated (probably 2+ years off); b) have natural immunity (probably a
low percentage, besides who wants to risk it?); or c) be infected and
recover (thus *presumably* making them immune).The only purpose of
flattening the curve is to try to reduce mortality (and maybe even reduce
the permanent damage done to the body) by keeping the medical systems from
becoming overwhelmed. Given how few people have been infected and then
either died or recovered (fewer than 2 million infected out of 7.5 billion,
i.e. 0.026%), we could repeat this curve flattening exercise a thousand
times before it would burn itself out.

Seems to me we have to either wait for a vaccine, or resign ourselves to
the fact that we are going to get infected. Or just stay out in the cloud
forest like I'm doing and never see anyone face to face again. Am I missing
something?

On Thu, Apr 9, 2020 at 4:49 PM <thompnickson2 at gmail.com> wrote:

> Hi, Glen,
>
> Perhaps they seem optimistic to me only because mine have been so
> pessimistic.  I have assumed that I am immobilized here in Santa Fe for the
> next year.  I even put up a list on my wall of 365 days and have been
> crossing them off, one by one.  What I see on that site suggests to me that
> I might actually get  to  my garden in Massachusetts by early June.  I just
> heard an interview with Daniel Kahneman (who is in my age range) who says
> essentially that he expects to stay home for the rest of his life because
> of the disease.  I just heard from Dave West (He's fine!) who decided to
> make a run for home from Amsterdam and essentially had a 747 to himself.
> Perhaps now is exactly the time to make a run for MA.
>
> So, you see, my thinking about all of this is deranged and intensified by
> its personal implications.  So perhaps I ought to be keeping my thoughts to
> myself.  I have my favorite dog in this fight; too much skin in this game.
>
> My pessimistic  view is that until we are back to contact tracing levels
> everybody should stay home.  Others seem to imagine essentially eliminating
> the disease from the population by social distancing in the next month. and
> then going back pretty much to business as usual.  I WANT those "others" to
> be right, but I am having a hard time selling it to myself.  At the
> minimum, any restarting would require public health departments to have the
> power to snatch contacts off the street, throw them in sterilized vans, and
> cart them off to motels to watch Fox News for two weeks.  Apparently,
> people boarding airplanes in Wuhan, are doing so in hazmat gear.  I just
> don't see that happening, here.  Even at the current "peak", SW airlines is
> not screening passengers or taking temps at the gate.
>
> I read some where that Trump is losing a Billion dollars (a month? from
> the crisis.  Hey, every cloud has a silver lining.
>
> Definitely deranged,
>
>
> Nick
>
>
>
> Nicholas Thompson
> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
> Clark University
> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> On Behalf Of u?l? ?
> Sent: Thursday, April 9, 2020 2:48 PM
> To: FriAM <friam at redfish.com>
> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] covid19.healthdata.org
>
>
> Can you explain why you think estimates are optimistic? Their uncertainty
> shading gives them quite a bit of leeway.
>
> On 4/9/20 11:18 AM, thompnickson2 at gmail.com wrote:
> > Sorry, I have never been much good at this screen capture thang.
> > Below are fragments of two pages from the IHME website,
> >
> >
> >
> > https://covid19.healthdata.org
> >
> >
> >
> > the same website from which I sent you a bit of cheerful FAQ, last
> night.   You can get to any state and several countries, by clicking on the
> down arrow beside the heading, United States of America.
> >
> >
> >
> > The first screen shot shows how they understand what is going on in
> > NM,  where they say that we have no “stay at home order” implemented.
> And indeed, there seems to be more “bustle” on the streets than I would
> have expected.
> >
> >
> >
> > The second shows their prediction of resource demand for the US
> generally, which they claim will reach it’s peak in a few days.  This just
> seems howlingly optimistic.   I suppose they are thinking that the high
> population centers are peaking now, and whatever happens in the South won’t
> push us to a higher peak if those blue-state numbers are falling.  Still ….
> >
> >
> >
> > The FAQ seems to suggest that this will be a nightmare in the rear view
> mirror as we all  gather for the 4^th of July Celebration on the Mall, with
> Trump soliciting adulation for his terrific response to the virus.  This
> HAS to be nuts.  What am I missing, here?
>
> --
> ☣ uǝlƃ
>
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