[FRIAM] basis for prediction — forked from the tail end of anthropological observtions

Sun Apr 19 00:10:59 EDT 2020

Tip the scales, Florida!

https://www.newsweek.com/florida-beaches-florida-moron-twitter-1498750
https://twitter.com/search?q=%23FloridaMorons&src=typed_query

On 4/18/20, 4:07 PM, "Friam on behalf of Prof David West" <friam-bounces at redfish.com on behalf of profwest at fastmail.fm> wrote:

    Consider three entities making 2016 political predictions and their predictions.

    1- "cognoscenti" those citing poll data, Nate Silver (albeit as everyone notes, the citation was more interpretation than citation), pundits, et. al. — Trump, at various times, has 1/1000 to 1/3 chance of winning the election.

    2- Scott Adams - Trump "very likely"  will win to "almost certain" he will win.

    3- davew - Trump will win.

    # 3 is a fool because he made no effort whatsoever to hedge his prediction.

    The first group used traditional polling, statistical modelling, etc. to come to their conclusions.

    Scott Adams used none of those methods/tools but, as described in his book — Win Bigly — the language and rhetoric analysis tools/techniques he did use.

    davew remains coy about how he came to his certainty.

    QUESTIONS:  Are there different approaches, different avenues, different means, for acquiring "knowledge?" I am being vague here because I do not know how to make the question precise.  But it would have something to do with different definitions of what is considered data and different techniques/tools for digesting that data to form conclusions — in this instance predictions.

    If there are different approaches, is a comparative analysis of them possible? desirable?

    Different approaches — useful in different contexts? How to determine appropriate contexts.

    Or, is there but one avenue to knowledge — Science — and all else is idiosyncratic opinion?

    Personally, I think there is use in pursuing this type of question and then using the answers / insights to makes sense of the multiple conversations concerning COVID and the response thereto.

    davew

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