[FRIAM] Judea Pearl: Book of Why

[Frank Wimberly]

You want to do an agent-based simulation of, say, consumer behavior where
the relevant properties of the agents have the joint distribution of a
sample.  You want it to be in a context that or for a period of time not
realizable with actual subjects...

On Sun, Apr 19, 2020 at 9:30 AM Marcus Daniels <marcus at snoutfarm.com> wrote:

> I have a hard time with this as a way to extend data.   If it is
> high-dimensional it will be under-sampled.  Seems better to me to  measure
> or simulate more so that the joint distribution can be realistic.  And if
> you can do that there is no reason to infer the joint distribution because
> you *have* it.
>
> On Apr 19, 2020, at 8:18 AM, Frank Wimberly <wimberly3 at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> 
> Going back and forth:  If you infer the causal graph from observational
> data you can use that graph to simulate data with the same joint
> distribution as the original data.
>
>
> Frank
>
> On Sun, Apr 19, 2020 at 9:11 AM uǝlƃ ☣ <gepropella at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> The *ensemble* point is the primary reason I regret not being able to
>> parse your response to my Necker cube summarization of EricS' TLDR. It goes
>> back to the original question of how/whether distributional conceptions
>> better catch the unknown unknowns left dangling in the ambience. Pearl's
>> attempts to burst "causality" into graphs, away from chains (though helping
>> to identify chains when they do exist) is along the same line.
>>
>> To boot, it evokes both Gödel's interpretation of von Neumann's
>> interpretation of Gödel's work (that it takes an infinite expression to
>> describe a thing) and Rosen's definition of complexity (basically anything
>> that requires an infinite number of models to describe).
>>
>> And, although I can't get my hands on the Rota paper EricS posted, I'm
>> leery of relying on any phenomenology. Heidegger I trust a bit. Husserl not
>> so much. Regardless, I don't think it's *necessary* to go that deep to grok
>> the main point, which is that the transformation should be invertible. We
>> should be able to flip back and forth from goo to thing such that the
>> flipping doesn't change it. The goo we get after flipping from the things
>> should be the same goo we had to start with.
>>
>> On 4/19/20 6:25 AM, Steven A Smith wrote:
>> > My work of late (other than SimTable) has been in the realm of trying
>> to analyze ensembles of predictive simulations.   This is a logical next
>> step (forward and backward propogating data and constraints as they are
>> recorded/discovered/postulated) across space (populations) and time.
>>
>>
>> --
>> ☣ uǝlƃ
>>
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>
>
> --
> Frank Wimberly
> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz
> Santa Fe, NM 87505
> 505 670-9918
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-- 
Frank Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz
Santa Fe, NM 87505
505 670-9918
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