[FRIAM] Tripping on the Rye: She's a Witch! How do you know? . (Re: basis for prediction — forked from the tail end of anthropological observtions)

[Stephen Guerin]

I was completely ignorant of the history/impacts of ergot
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ergot> before this thread. Fascinating!

In this context, we can think about Dave's different ways of knowing when
we show cause and evidence that someone is a witch.

   1. Science: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zrzMhU_4m-g
   2.  LSD: Ergo the Ergot: LSD, Causation and Evidence
   https://www.vox.com/2015/10/29/9620542/salem-witch-trials-ergotism





On Sun, Apr 19, 2020 at 7:47 AM Prof David West <profwest at fastmail.fm>
wrote:

> addendum:  I was interrupted mid-post
>
> Just as a new strain of ergot might pose a severe challenge to hybridized
> wheat, a new "strain" of problem might pose a severe challenge to a
> hybridized mode of thinking.
>
> I would posit that challenges like Covid-19, global warming, and even The
> Donald are akin to a new strain of ergot vis-a-vis wheat. Our ability to
> address or solve those challenges might be, I am certain it would be,
> enhanced if we could bring to bear some "heritage modes of thought."
>
> My expressed antipathy for Science derives from the tendency of scientists
> to simply dismiss any alternative ideas or arguments as anti-scientific and
> therefore invalid.
>
> The reason I said that you and I are in fundamental agreement, is that, I
> think, both of us would accept into our garden of thought" any sufficiently
> viable, and tasty, mode of thinking.
>
> davew
>
>
> On Sun, Apr 19, 2020, at 6:24 AM, Prof David West wrote:
> > Nick,
> >
> > There is truth in what you say, but only a bit.
> >
> > I have certainly spoken as if "Science was a bunch of nasty people with
> > vested interests acting in an exclusionary manner."
> >
> > Hyperbole.
> >
> > A better metaphor / analogy would be the way we have hybridized our
> > food supply; e.g. 90 percent of all dairy cows have one of two bulls in
> > their ancestry, there are one or two tomato hybrids, one or two strains
> > of rice, wheat, corn, etc.
> >
> > This creates a huge vulnerability — a novel pest or disease and presto,
> > no food supply.
> >
> > Now imagine that there are multiple species of investigation, thinking,
> > knowledge.
> >
> > Since the Age of Enlightenment, the western world has been hell bent on
> > hybridizing but one of them — Formalism (aka, roughly, Science).
> >
> > Yes, I believe that Formalism has attained such a privileged status
> > that it tolerates no criticism and critics are "excommunicated" with
> > prejudice.
> >
> > I would like to think of myself as someone interested in growing
> > heritage tomatoes in my garden and marveling at the differences in
> > taste and texture and finding very deep value from the use of them in
> > culinary creations.
> >
> > davew
> >
> >
> > On Sat, Apr 18, 2020, at 8:58 PM, thompnickson2 at gmail.com wrote:
> > > Dave,
> > >
> > > No, wait a minute!  Thou slenderest me!   For you, Science is a bunch
> > > of nasty people with vested interests. Science, on that understanding,
> > > has the power to exclude.  For me, Science is a set of practices that
> > > lead to understandings of experience that endure the test of time.  It
> > > is not the sort of thing that can exclude.   If pot smoking in bubble
> > > baths leads to understandings that endure the test of time, then it is
> > > a scientific method.  Something like that seemed to have worked for
> > > Archimedes.
> > >
> > > Nick
> > >
> > > Nicholas Thompson
> > > Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
> > > Clark University
> > > ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com
> > > https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > -----Original Message-----
> > > From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> On Behalf Of Prof David West
> > > Sent: Saturday, April 18, 2020 6:31 PM
> > > To: friam at redfish.com
> > > Subject: Re: [FRIAM] basis for prediction — forked from the tail end
> of
> > > anthropological observtions
> > >
> > > Nick,
> > >
> > > I won't lose the argument, because I pre-believe that, IF alternative
> > > means with some kind of criteria for falsifiability and repeatability
> > > THEN they should be incorporated into that which is deemed "Science" —
> > > ergo there is no argument to lose.
> > >
> > > If there is an argument — and there is clearly a difference of opinion
> > > — it centers on the the issue of why Hermetic Alchemy, Acid
> > > Epistemology, Anthropological Thick Description, Ayurvedic Medicine,
> > > Adams' "rhetorical analysis" et. al. are, at the moment and for the
> > > most part, excluded from Science.
> > >
> > > davew
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > On Sat, Apr 18, 2020, at 5:28 PM, thompnickson2 at gmail.com wrote:
> > > > Dave,
> > > >
> > > > You're going to lose this argument with me eventually, because any
> > > > investigatory practice that works in the long run I am going to
> > > > declare to be part of "the scientific method."  So if you declare
> that
> > > > discovery is enhanced by lying in a warm suds bath smoking pot, and
> > > > you can describe a repeatable practice  which includes that as a
> > > > method, and that method produces enduring intellectual and practical
> > > > structures such as the periodic table, then I will simply say,
> "That's science."
> > > >
> > > > I am not sure this works with my falsifiability schtik, but that
> must
> > > > have been at least 4 hours ago.  So "before lunch".
> > > >
> > > >  Nick
> > > >
> > > > Nicholas Thompson
> > > > Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology Clark University
> > > > ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > > From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> On Behalf Of Prof David West
> > > > Sent: Saturday, April 18, 2020 5:07 PM
> > > > To: friam at redfish.com
> > > > Subject: [FRIAM] basis for prediction — forked from the tail end of
> > > > anthropological observtions
> > > >
> > > > Consider three entities making 2016 political predictions and their
> predictions.
> > > >
> > > > 1- "cognoscenti" those citing poll data, Nate Silver (albeit as
> > > > everyone notes, the citation was more interpretation than citation),
> > > > pundits, et. al. — Trump, at various times, has 1/1000 to 1/3 chance
> of
> > > > winning the election.
> > > >
> > > > 2- Scott Adams - Trump "very likely"  will win to "almost certain"
> he will win.
> > > >
> > > > 3- davew - Trump will win.
> > > >
> > > > # 3 is a fool because he made no effort whatsoever to hedge his
> prediction.
> > > >
> > > > The first group used traditional polling, statistical modelling,
> etc.
> > > > to come to their conclusions.
> > > >
> > > > Scott Adams used none of those methods/tools but, as described in
> his
> > > > book — Win Bigly — the language and rhetoric analysis
> tools/techniques
> > > > he did use.
> > > >
> > > > davew remains coy about how he came to his certainty.
> > > >
> > > > QUESTIONS:  Are there different approaches, different avenues,
> > > > different means, for acquiring "knowledge?" I am being vague here
> > > > because I do not know how to make the question precise.  But it
> would
> > > > have something to do with different definitions of what is
> considered
> > > > data and different techniques/tools for digesting that data to form
> > > > conclusions — in this instance predictions.
> > > >
> > > > If there are different approaches, is a comparative analysis of them
> > > > possible? desirable?
> > > >
> > > > Different approaches — useful in different contexts? How to
> determine
> > > > appropriate contexts.
> > > >
> > > > Or, is there but one avenue to knowledge — Science — and all else is
> > > > idiosyncratic opinion?
> > > >
> > > > Personally, I think there is use in pursuing this type of question
> and
> > > > then using the answers / insights to makes sense of the multiple
> > > > conversations concerning COVID and the response thereto.
> > > >
> > > > davew
>
>
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/attachments/20200419/a080bfb3/attachment.html>