[FRIAM] Local News not so good

Wed Apr 22 23:47:48 EDT 2020

With all that we don't know about this disease that is probably unknowable for months, there are a gazillion useful things that we could know which would be great to know:  Like, what is the relation between rapidity of onset and outcome?

Nick 

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

-----Original Message-----
From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> On Behalf Of u?l? ?
Sent: Wednesday, April 22, 2020 6:34 PM
To: FriAM <friam at redfish.com>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Local News not so good

Also, you can see that many states in the rt.live data show a bump around the 16th, some later toward the 19th. I grok the point about feeling symptoms then coming in, then wait for the test results. But we also have to factor in that many people who are infected won't come in and get tested at all. There's still a huge set of us who won't bother to go to the doctor with cold-like symptoms. And, all we're feeling are cold like symptoms, then it's possible the test bump you're seeing here are for people who get sick quicker, and get sicker. If 80% of us are asymptomatic and/or only get mild symptoms, it might *shorten* the time between Easter and the Easter bump in cases because it's only that 20% who get sick quicker and get sicker that populate the bump.

In any case, you're right to *wait*. Speculation can only be wild. I'm just offering some equally unfounded speculation to counter yours. >8^D

On 4/22/20 5:25 PM, thompnickson2 at gmail.com wrote:
> Well, how long does it take a case to incubate, "come in",  and be tested.  I was thinking that was around ten days.  I will check with the DHS data when it comes out on Thursday.  Remember most cases start (and often remain) pretty cold-like.  Still, there are more tests around, now, so the lag should be decreasing. 

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☣ uǝlƃ

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