[FRIAM] Bayes Rules and Base Rates Count

[Tom Johnson]

Good explanation.  But it always comes back to the basic question: What are
the methods and data informing our assumptions about prevalence, at this
moment, in a population?  Or am I wrong?
Tom


============================================
Tom Johnson - tom at jtjohnson.com
Institute for Analytic Journalism   --     Santa Fe, NM USA
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On Wed, Apr 29, 2020 at 4:03 PM George Duncan <gtduncan at gmail.com> wrote:

> Here's an easy numerical example of why conditional probabilities as
> employed in Bayes Rule are important:
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x5FfTjJtV3E&feature=share
> <https://nam05.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3Dx5FfTjJtV3E%26feature%3Dshare&data=02%7C01%7Ckelsey%40edc.pitt.edu%7Cd4539c648e544adc9a3608d7ec422ca0%7C9ef9f489e0a04eeb87cc3a526112fd0d%7C1%7C1%7C637237641268432573&sdata=sSVCqTqIkvlnbjX%2BoUoUxdPdt%2FolTIHHw%2FZiJzCgCMk%3D&reserved=0>
>
>
> George Duncan
> Emeritus Professor of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University
> georgeduncanart.com
> See posts on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram
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> My art theme: Dynamic exposition of the tension between matrix order and
> luminous chaos.
>
> "Attempt what is not certain. Certainty may or may not come later. It may
> then be a valuable delusion."
> From "Notes to myself on beginning a painting" by Richard Diebenkorn.
>
> "It's that knife-edge of uncertainty where we come alive to our truest
> power." Joanna Macy.
>
>
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