[FRIAM] climate change questions

Wed Jan 1 14:16:04 EST 2020

We are stuck at the point where, to stay under 1.5 or 2,  it is clear that we must cut fossil fuel extraction and use and there is no existing politics todo it because it mans loss of jobs, failures of mortgages, collapse of banks - and starvation. And this  is  Implies that we must move toward powerful centralization and decentralization at the same time.

doug

> On Jan 1, 2020, at 10:55 AM, <thompnickson2 at gmail.com> <thompnickson2 at gmail.com> wrote:
> 
> Friammers:
>  
> Let’s constitute ourselves as the “climate change jury”.    The jury can have a conviction but only if we all agree.  Otherwise we remain a hung jury.  
>  
> So, does the Jury agree that with Dr. Kwok of JPL that “ … sea level rise, disappearing sea ice, melting ice sheets and other changes are happening”?
>  
> If, so, is the jury prepared to convict human activities for causing those changes?
>  
> I am polling the jury. 
>  
> Nick 
>  
> Nicholas Thompson
> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
> Clark University
> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com <mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ <https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/>
>  
>  
> From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com <mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com>> On Behalf Of Frank Wimberly
> Sent: Wednesday, January 1, 2020 11:27 AM
> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam at redfish.com <mailto:friam at redfish.com>>
> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] climate change questions
>  
> From NASA:
> https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/16/is-it-too-late-to-prevent-climate-change/ <https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/16/is-it-too-late-to-prevent-climate-change/>
>  
> 
> -----------------------------------
> Frank Wimberly
> 
> My memoir:
> https://www.amazon.com/author/frankwimberly <https://www.amazon.com/author/frankwimberly>
> 
> My scientific publications:
> https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Frank_Wimberly2 <https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Frank_Wimberly2>
> 
> Phone (505) 670-9918
>  
> On Wed, Jan 1, 2020, 11:24 AM Frank Wimberly <wimberly3 at gmail.com <mailto:wimberly3 at gmail.com>> wrote:
>> What scares me is recent assertions that we have passed the tipping point and there is nothing we can do about it.  I have no references.
>>  
>> Frank
>> 
>> -----------------------------------
>> Frank Wimberly
>> 
>> My memoir:
>> https://www.amazon.com/author/frankwimberly <https://www.amazon.com/author/frankwimberly>
>> 
>> My scientific publications:
>> https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Frank_Wimberly2 <https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Frank_Wimberly2>
>> 
>> Phone (505) 670-9918
>>  
>> On Wed, Jan 1, 2020, 11:09 AM <thompnickson2 at gmail.com <mailto:thompnickson2 at gmail.com>> wrote:
>>> Dave,
>>> 
>>> I like these questions, and I think The Congregation should take them as a
>>> challenge.
>>> 
>>> What can we-all, we who have long association, and a generalized (if
>>> somewhat guarded) respect, come to agree upon with respect to climate change
>>> and human activity?  By what process, with what attitudes, by what rules of
>>> engagement, are we likely to arrive at ANY truth of that matter.  Because,
>>> if we, here, cannot agree on some matters, agreement would seem to be beyond
>>> human reach. 
>>> 
>>> So, for starters, I find I am inclined to disagree with your facts as
>>> stated.  They seem to assert that Things (whatever Things are) are not as
>>> bad as they were predicted to be.  Yet, I find, I am inclined to believe
>>> that in fact Things are worse.  The only specific data I feel I have been
>>> exposed to recently is ocean surface rise and glacial melting.  But even
>>> there, I would be hard pressed to match your specific references to any of
>>> my own.  So, I guess the conclusion is, I disagree, but I don't know what I
>>> am talking about.  Ugh!
>>> 
>>> I could (after some labor) cite data to support the following concern:  what
>>> we should be watching out for, perhaps more than long term climate warming,
>>> is increases in year-to-year climate variability.  You can grow rape seed in
>>> Canada and maize in the US, and as the climate alters, the bands of climate
>>> supporting these two crops will move north.  But what happens if one year
>>> the climate demands one crop and the next the other?  And the switch from
>>> one to the other is entirely unpredictable.  Anybody who plants a garden
>>> knows that only two dates have a tremendous effect on the productivity of
>>> your garden: first frost and last frost.  The average frost free period in
>>> my garden in Ma 135 days or so, but only a few miles away, it is as short as
>>> 90.  And while we have never had a 90 day frost year, we have had last frost
>>> dates in June and first frost dates in early September.  It would take a
>>> very small year-to-year increase in variability to turn my garden from
>>> something that could support life for a year in New England into a 30 x 50
>>> wasteplot.  
>>> 
>>> I think I could show you that the period in which we live, the Holocene, is
>>> a period of remarkably low, year-to-year, variation in climate VARIABILITY.
>>> I think I could convince you that everything that has occurred in the last
>>> ten thousand years by way of civilization is entirely dependent  on that
>>> anomalous stability.  The neanderthals were not too stupid to do
>>> agriculture; the climate of the Pleistocene would not permit it.  The whole
>>> idea of nation states depends on the idea that one can make more or less the
>>> same kind of living by staying more or less in the same place and doing more
>>> or less the same thing.  A return to Pleistocene year-to-year variation
>>> would obliterate that possibility.  
>>> 
>>> If then, I could convince you, that --quite apart from Global Warming-- we
>>> are seeing an increase in climate variability, then, by God, I think I could
>>> scare the Living Crap out of you.  
>>> 
>>> The only question is whether we have the energy and sitzfleisch to do it,
>>> and some way to keep our correspondence is order so that it's value could be
>>> harvested for the long run. 
>>> 
>>> Happy New Year!
>>> 
>>> Nick 
>>> 
>>> Nicholas Thompson
>>> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
>>> Clark University
>>> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com <mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com>
>>> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ <https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/>
>>> 
>>> 
>>> 
>>> -----Original Message-----
>>> From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com <mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com>> On Behalf Of Prof David West
>>> Sent: Wednesday, January 1, 2020 9:45 AM
>>> To: friam at redfish.com <mailto:friam at redfish.com>
>>> Subject: [FRIAM] climate change questions
>>> 
>>> Questions,  that do NOT, in any manner or form deny the reality of climate
>>> change.
>>> 
>>> In 1990, citing the "best scientific models available" stated that because
>>> of carbon dioxide emissions, the Earth would warm by an average of 3 degrees
>>> Fahrenheit and the U.S. as the largest producer, by an average of 6 degrees
>>> Fahrenheit by 2020.
>>> 
>>> The UN IPCC report of the same year predicted a range of temperature
>>> increases ranging from 1-5 degrees F, with the most likely expectations
>>> being 3-5 by the year 2020.
>>> 
>>> The current report predicts a rise of 2-5 degrees by 2100.
>>> 
>>> The New York Times, CNN, and the President of Exxon USA predicted the end of
>>> domestic oil and gas reserves by 2020.
>>> 
>>> The undisputed rise in Earth (and US) temperature as of 2020 is 1 degree.
>>> 
>>> Exactly how does one go about constructing a reasoned, and accurate,
>>> argument for the need to address climate change in the context of badly
>>> incorrect predictions, grounded in the best available scientific models, and
>>> over-hyped "disaster scenarios" promulgated by those with political or
>>> simply "circulation" motives.
>>> 
>>> In light of this context of "error" and "hype," is it fair to tar everyone
>>> expressing questions or doubts with the same "deny-er" brush?
>>> 
>>> Is it possible to constructively criticize either the models or the proposed
>>> "solutions" without being dismissed as a troglodyte "deny-er?"
>>> 
>>> Is there a way to evaluate a spectrum of means (eliminating coal to carbon
>>> scrubbers to ...) along with analyses of cost/benefit ratios, human
>>> socio-economic impact, etc. and compare them?
>>> 
>>> Is there more than one strategy for getting out of this mess; and if so, how
>>> do we decide (and/or construct a blend) on one that will optimize our
>>> chances?
>>> 
>>> davew
>>> 
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