[FRIAM] Fwd: climate change questions

[Steven A Smith]

Merle -

Thanks for introducing the Complexity and Climate meeting you organized
last month to the Friam contingent.   The meeting was a transformative
experience for me.   While I was already highly attuned to the
challenges addressed at the meeting both personally and professionally,
meeting our European (and specifically the Swedish core of the
contingent) and seeing how positively and progressively they (and the
broader culture of northern Europe or at least Scandinavia) are
approaching these problems was very heartening.   Most of those we met
were already systems thinkers and many were already familiar with some
of the more esoteric aspects of Complexity Science such as scale free
networks and bifurcation points in dynamical systems and seemed highly
receptive to new and potentially more subtle/complex ways of thinking
about the problems they are grappling with.

The most notable takeaway for me perhaps, was realizing how much more
"humanist" the Scandinavian Scientists (Europeans in general?) are and
how much our current problems  are fundamentally ONLY addressable
through significant and sweeping paradigm changes at many levels, from
the individual to the global, across politics, economics, and
socio-cultural domains.   Stephen and I have been discussing these
observations and following up with some of the folks we met there on
more specific ideas and possible projects to advance this thoughtfully
but without delay. 

 - Steve



-------- Forwarded Message --------
Subject: 	Re: [FRIAM] climate change questions
Date: 	Wed, 1 Jan 2020 22:06:33 -0800
From: 	Merle Lefkoff <merlelefkoff at gmail.com>
Reply-To: 	The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
<friam at redfish.com>
To: 	The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam at redfish.com>



Steven Smith and Stephen Guerin were two of the complex systems
scientists our organization (The Center for Emergent Diplomacy) invited
to join a conference we organized in Stockholm a few weeks
ago--combining our guys with our Swedish network of scientists and
policy wonks working seriously on climate emergency.  My idea was that
the deep dialogue on global warming that I experience (and sometimes
facilitate) happening around the world everywhere but here in the
U.S--could really benefit from a Complexity spin. Steve and Stephen are
somewhat up-to-date, and you might get some interesting replies from them. 

By the way--all the major government reports, including the UN IPCC
reports, are heavily censored because of how the research is funded. 
There is tremendous pressure to present only best-case scenarios-- for
obvious corporate reasons.  Also, if any of you think the disaster
scenarios are "over-hyped", you really don't have a clue.  Yes, the
future is unprestateable, but many parts of the world are already
experiencing the future of global warming in the present, like a good
science fiction story.  And there is a rapidly growing scientific
consensus about how quickly the window is closing on any attempts to
contain the risk to human survival on a much-altered planet.

On Wed, Jan 1, 2020 at 8:45 AM Prof David West <profwest at fastmail.fm
<mailto:profwest at fastmail.fm>> wrote:

    Questions,  that do NOT, in any manner or form deny the reality of
    climate change.

    In 1990, citing the "best scientific models available" stated that
    because of carbon dioxide emissions, the Earth would warm by an
    average of 3 degrees Fahrenheit and the U.S. as the largest
    producer, by an average of 6 degrees Fahrenheit by 2020.

    The UN IPCC report of the same year predicted a range of temperature
    increases ranging from 1-5 degrees F, with the most likely
    expectations being 3-5 by the year 2020.

    The current report predicts a rise of 2-5 degrees by 2100.

    The New York Times, CNN, and the President of Exxon USA predicted
    the end of domestic oil and gas reserves by 2020.

    The undisputed rise in Earth (and US) temperature as of 2020 is 1
    degree.

    Exactly how does one go about constructing a reasoned, and accurate,
    argument for the need to address climate change in the context of
    badly incorrect predictions, grounded in the best available
    scientific models, and over-hyped "disaster scenarios" promulgated
    by those with political or simply "circulation" motives.

    In light of this context of "error" and "hype," is it fair to tar
    everyone expressing questions or doubts with the same "deny-er" brush?

    Is it possible to constructively criticize either the models or the
    proposed "solutions" without being dismissed as a troglodyte "deny-er?"

    Is there a way to evaluate a spectrum of means (eliminating coal to
    carbon scrubbers to ...) along with analyses of cost/benefit ratios,
    human socio-economic impact, etc. and compare them?

    Is there more than one strategy for getting out of this mess; and if
    so, how do we decide (and/or construct a blend) on one that will
    optimize our chances?

    davew

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-- 
Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
Center for Emergent Diplomacy
emergentdiplomacy.org <http://emergentdiplomacy.org>
Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA
merlelefkoff at gmail.com <mailto:merlelefoff at gmail.com>
mobile:  (303) 859-5609
skype:  merle.lelfkoff2
twitter: @Merle_Lefkoff
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FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
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