[FRIAM] Murdoch and Trump

Tue Jan 21 14:33:05 EST 2020

1.  That's why learning how to store food is just as important as learning
how to grow food.

2.  You are right to be worried about seed.  Seed banks around the world
are at risk.

3.  You didn't mention insect extinctions.  Big big problem.

On Tue, Jan 21, 2020 at 12:28 PM doug carmichael <doug at dougcarmichael.com>
wrote:

> the problem with the small plot of land  approach
>
> 1. what to do in the winter?
> 2. given the number Of people who will try it, what about the supplier
> seeds? Are there enough?
>
> doug
>
> On Jan 21, 2020, at 11:20 AM, Merle Lefkoff <merlelefkoff at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
> 
> Thank you, Jochen.  Excellent.  Pieter:  We can't predict what will happen
> or when or how fast.  We only have probability analysis.  But it's
> happening now.  The future is here.
>
> My advice when I give talks on climate emergency is make sure you have a
> small piece of empty land, fix the topsoil, learn how to grow food, learn
> how to store food, meditate, and try to enjoy an altered planet.
>
> On Tue, Jan 21, 2020 at 1:23 AM Pieter Steenekamp <
> pieters at randcontrols.co.za> wrote:
>
>> Jochen,
>>
>> How confident are you about the predictions the climate scientists make?
>>
>> When I delve into the details of the IPCC reports I find that there are
>> significant uncertainties. But when popular media report the facts I get
>> the impression that "the science is settled" . Sure, I agree that there are
>> aspects of the science that I would argue "is settled", but there are very
>> crucial aspects with significant uncertainties. For example, the latest
>> available figures from the IPCC reports give the climate sensitivity as
>> within the range of 1.5 to 4.5 (that is the expected increase in global
>> temperatures per doubling of CO2. This is according to the
>> models. Empirical data studies show it to be close to the lower end. If
>> this is true, then the IPCC figures are correct and we don't have to be
>> concerned about CO2 causing serious harm.
>>
>> Is it good enough to say that because CO2 causes the temperature to
>> increase, the temperature has increased the last 100 years or so, the CO2
>> is increasing because of humans burning fossil fuels, therefore if we don't
>> stop burning fossil fuels we are going to have huge disasters? Is it not
>> good practice to ask how much and what other factors contribute?
>>
>> By the way, I also don't have a high opinion of Trump.
>>
>> Pieter
>>
>> On Tue, 21 Jan 2020 at 01:21, Jochen Fromm <jofr at cas-group.net> wrote:
>>
>>> 10 years ago we had 10 degrees below zero in Berlin and several days of
>>> snow. This winter we had not a single day of snow. Not a single one. The
>>> arctic is melting, Australia and California are burning like never before
>>> and Brasil is destroying the last pieces of its precious rain forest.
>>>
>>> And the worst thing is that it will be every year like this one, only
>>> worse. Billions of people are burning in a few decades the fossil fuels
>>> produced over millions of years. You don't need to be an expert to see that
>>> this really can not be reversed in a few months.
>>>
>>> I could even imagine that we burn so much fossil fuels that there will
>>> be regions where we have a lack of Oxygen. Earth was like this many million
>>> years ago.
>>>
>>> And the most powerful country of the world has a president who ignores
>>> all of it and considers himself a very stable genius. Sean Hannity gets 36
>>> Million Dollar (!) a year from Fox News to praise him. Isn't it depressing?
>>>
>>> -Jochen
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> -------- Original message --------
>>> From: Pieter Steenekamp <pieters at randcontrols.co.za>
>>> Date: 1/20/20 22:59 (GMT+01:00)
>>> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
>>> friam at redfish.com>
>>> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Murdoch and Trump
>>>
>>> Eric asked for someone with a comprehensive knowledge of climate science
>>> and I do not put my name in the hat. But I do have some comprehension of
>>> the basic science and the big picture.
>>> But like all humans I have biases and very far from having a
>>> comprehensive knowledge of the literature nor the science. In my
>>> professional career as an engineer I have done a lot of engineering
>>> modeling and in my private time I am enthusiastic about emergence and have
>>> played with agent based models to simulate complex systems.
>>>
>>> So, on the topic under discussion, there are issues that I reckon should
>>> not be questioned (“the science is settled”):
>>> a) On decades time scales the earth has warmed, the average sea level
>>> has increased and the average CO2 in the atmosphere increased
>>> b) There are direct and indirect causal links between CO2 and temperature
>>> c) The direct causal link is not sufficiently strong to be worried about
>>> d) It’s the indirect link that’s the source of the concerns. CO2 causes
>>> the temperature to rise a little. This causes more evaporation and
>>> subsequently more clouds. Some clouds cause cooling (negative feedback) and
>>> some warming (positive feedback).
>>> e) There are other factors than CO2 also affecting the temperature.
>>>
>>> Then there are issues that IMO are not settled.:
>>> I argue an issue that cuts to the very heart of the current climate
>>> change debate is the strength of feedbacks. If the positive feedback is
>>> strong and the negative feedback weak then Houston we have a problem we
>>> should listen to Greta. If not, Trump was probably right in withdrawing
>>> from Paris.
>>>
>>> Pieter
>>>
>>> On Sun, 19 Jan 2020 at 23:13, David Eric Smith <desmith at santafe.edu>
>>> wrote:
>>>
>>>> Sorry…
>>>>
>>>> My own typos are bad enough, but usually comprehensible.  But when the
>>>> damned computer helpfully comes in and substitutes the word it thinks I
>>>> must have meant, the result is a true obscurity:
>>>>
>>>> > One also wants to take into account arctic se ice, which if I really
>>>> is on a faster melting schedule then some models predicted, though I don’t
>>>> have even a good impressionistic memory of what I have heard on that.
>>>>
>>>> One also wants to take into account arctic _sea_ ice, which if I
>>>> _remember_ is on ….
>>>>
>>>> Eric
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> ============================================================
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>>>> http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
>>>>
>>> ============================================================
>>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
>>> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
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>>>
>> ============================================================
>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
>> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
>> to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
>> archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
>> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
>>
>
>
> --
> Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
> President, Center for Emergent Diplomacy
> emergentdiplomacy.org
> Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA
> merlelefkoff at gmail.com <merlelefoff at gmail.com>
> mobile:  (303) 859-5609
> skype:  merle.lelfkoff2
> twitter: @Merle_Lefkoff
> ============================================================
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
> archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
>
> ============================================================
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
> archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
>

-- 
Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
President, Center for Emergent Diplomacy
emergentdiplomacy.org
Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA
merlelefkoff at gmail.com <merlelefoff at gmail.com>
mobile:  (303) 859-5609
skype:  merle.lelfkoff2
twitter: @Merle_Lefkoff
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