[FRIAM] Washington Coronavirus Map and Case Count - The New York Times

Tue Jun 23 13:16:57 EDT 2020

Glen, 

So, you don't sense that it's a blue/red county thing but a statewide decision to allow the disease to leak through?  Come to think of it, both CA and OR have similar curves. 

N

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

-----Original Message-----
From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> On Behalf Of ? u?l?
Sent: Tuesday, June 23, 2020 11:13 AM
To: FriAM <friam at redfish.com>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Washington Coronavirus Map and Case Count - The New York Times

Of course I can't provide a guaranteed true explanation. I can only provide my guesses. I think the primary cause is that it's a very infectious disease and the reopening, even a sedate one like here in Thurston county, is infecting more people. Renee's seen a steady uptick at her hospital, though nowhere near overwhelming it.

As I've argued before, the important aspect is to buttress the infrastructure so the cases can be *handled*, not to avoid infection entirely. So, a slight increase in cases and a zeroing out of deaths and intensive care, is what I want to see. So, it's possible that a low slope increase in cases is a demonstration of *competence*. A "spike" in cases is a demonstration of incompetence, in particular if the slope in the case curve outstrips the medical infrastructure, then that's incompetent.

As usual, merely looking at the number of cases (or any single measure) is inadequate to estimate the competence of the response.

On 6/23/20 10:03 AM, thompnickson2 at gmail.com wrote:
> https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/washington-coronavirus-cas
> es.html
> 
> What’s going on in Washington?  They got the message early, they learned the hardway, they’re not infected with (at least in the urban areas) with covid-denial, yet cases seem to be rising again?  I hate to have my stereotypes contradicted.  Can you please explain [away] these data?

--
☣ uǝlƃ

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