[FRIAM] ill-conceived question
Steven A Smith
sasmyth at swcp.com
Sun May 3 19:09:46 EDT 2020
Eric -
> I would put up this one as a constructive reply to your link below,
> not to counter but to add alongside:
> https://www.filmsforaction.org/watch/the-power-of-community-how-cuba-survived-peak-oil-2006/
> I am pretty sure I have posted this to the list in the past, but it
> remains a strong reference for me.
I was (only vaguely) aware of the Cuban "special period" and think the
description of the Cuban people's response in the movie was very
inspirational. It helps a great deal that Cuba has a very good climate
for year round agriculture and that it's people were not terribly
addicted to personal-conveniences as provided by our idea of modern
technology. I have not really paid attention to what has evolved there
more recently.
I have friends/colleagues in Ukraine who are old enough to have
remembered both Chernobyl, the fall of the Soviet Union, and the
Ukranian independence. They went through some similar experiences to
Cuba, suddenly not having direct access to the huge false-economies of
the Soviet Empire and having to try to keep a system running on
nominally only what could be produced regionally.
I wondered when Puerto Rico got hit so hard by the hurricane a few years
go if THEY might not follow a pattern closer to Cuba's as described in
the movie.
> Six weeks or two months into a shutdown, with pictures of glittering
> skyscrapers in NYC with nobody maintaining them, and yoga people
> sitting on posh porches overlooking the forest, I get the impression
> that something is being overlooked. If I saw the same video made by a
> Panamanian immigrant in Brooklyn, living with 6 family members in a
> small apartment, I would feel safer abducting from the anecdotal point
> of view to a generalization.
I agree that Gary's video leaves me waiting for "the other shoe to fall"
when I know the beast in question is more like a centipede than a biped.
>
> I don’t say that to disagree with the intent of the short video you
> circulated, which expresses preferences that I also hold. But all the
> ways we create damage, from climate to farmland management to
> ecosystem destruction happen partly because it is hard to understand
> long-term trajectories from the early stages of transients, and we are
> particularly bad at recognizing that transients are that. This little
> bit of inertia, while people consume stocks that were in inventory
> already, does not look to me like a model for an alternative steady
> state in barely any respects (though still a few). I don’t doubt that
> the maker of the video understands this and would agree, but he
> probably sees the end of making the point as justifying the means of
> omitting these things.
Yes, in spite of our just-in-time logistics system, there has been quite
a bit of product in the pipeline and it is not like *every* factory and
*every* packing plant, etc. shut down immediately or entirely *IF
EVER*. Your reference to the style of glossing in the movie is
well-taken and I think I agree it was deliberate and aspirational more
than pretending that (as you point out) that 2 months in we can *know*
that everything is going to be OK even (especially?) if we cut our manic
hypercapitalism by a factor of 2 or 10.
>
> I like the Cuban case because it starts to get into the weeds of just
> how much _work_ is needed, and how many and how diverse are the
> problems that require invention to solve, to significantly re-arrange
> a social system. I think the documentary makes the case that the move
> they made was entirely in the right direction.
The improvements in health and nutrition they report is a good indicator.
> The thing that makes it feel real to me is that it was a lot of work
> for a modest and very incomplete improvement. To make a good world
> will require that kind of work-for-change as a way of life to which we
> remain committed over generational timescales. It also required that
> the center of mass of the society be going in that direction, and not
> just a committed fringe swimming against a current that is all going
> the wrong way. The latter nut is one that is seeming particularly
> hard to crack.
But I would claim/suggest that a "catastrophe" like the one we are on
the crest (of the beginning?) of is a good opportunity, not unlike the
"Special Period" of Cuba, for that center of mass to shift perhaps.
And there are directions to lean that will help that or alternatively
hurt (return to normal) that.
Good video and good thoughts,
- Steve
>
> Many thanks,
>
> Eric
>
>
>> On May 3, 2020, at 10:05 PM, Gary Schiltz <gary at naturesvisualarts.com
>> <mailto:gary at naturesvisualarts.com>> wrote:
>>
>> Great rant/stream of consciousness as usual, Steve! Has anyone
>> watched this five minute video yet? A bit utopian, but maybe not...
>> https://vimeo.com/411278238
>>
>> On Sun, May 3, 2020 at 7:23 AM David Eric Smith <desmith at santafe.edu
>> <mailto:desmith at santafe.edu>> wrote:
>>
>> I can’t weave a grand diorama that has the meaning of everything
>> in it, and anything I try will come out a mess. So let me try
>> for Less is More.
>>
>> I think part of this is habit and commitments. Somehow the
>> society has to sort out a predictable way to arrive at who has a
>> right to consume how much of what. A surprising amount of
>> structure goes into that, and it has enormous inertia. Part of
>> what we are trying to “restart” is a set of systems that happen
>> to be doing an allocation that we don’t have other systems in
>> place to do as an alternative.
>>
>> Take food production. Fine, what people need to eat is
>> relatively inelastic, and not wildly different from one human to
>> another, compared to dollar-wealth. But over the past 80 years,
>> nearly all food calories are produced by very few decision makers
>> and enormous capital outlays, levered to the hilt with credit, on
>> really bad (regular, fast, and inflexible) turnaround times.
>> (This means Corn, Beans, lesser Wheat, to some extent commodity
>> meats.). The story is a little more diversified for the nutritive
>> value of food (fruits, vegetables, et al.), but different in
>> structure where near-slave labor takes the place of capital and a
>> different analysis is needed. For now I will just look at the
>> simple one.
>>
>> We can’t all suddenly move back to the farm and grow calorie
>> crops. We don’t own land, we don’t have skills, and besides
>> there is no easy angle to do that in a system that over-produces
>> already. So the production is there. But if we don’t have a way
>> to pay the “farmer” (really a grant/loan/lobby businessman more
>> than an expert in soil health etc.), why should he give us
>> anything to eat? You could say “Ah, he only needs enough to
>> live, and he is only one man, so he could give the rest away
>> because people need it.” But he isn’t only one man. He is a
>> vastly debt-leveraged operation, with enormous capital
>> replacement and maintenance costs, huge loans for
>> fertilizer/seed/pesticide, and no way to pay that unless he turns
>> over the crop within certain price ranges (or lobbies hard to get
>> Dept of Ag to make up the difference; what happens is a lot of
>> both). So he has no choices if we don’t have money, and we have
>> no choices if we have no money. But then what should anyone pay
>> any of us for if the US operates on 1000 farmers, but there are
>> 378M mouths that want to be fed? Some system has to work that out.
>>
>> During the near-century of technological increases in output
>> optimization, the rhetoric was that with less labor used to
>> produce consumables, people’s efforts would be liberated to do
>> other good things. But to the extent that those things aren’t
>> “necessary” in the Maslov sense like food is (following Steve
>> S.), really all those other people are useless.
>>
>> One could try UBI, or have some utopian fantasy about centrally
>> managed communist economies, but apart from small-scale
>> experiments on UBI within much larger conventionally-run
>> countries, and Kibbutz-level communes, I don’t see evidence of
>> mechanisms to put behind those visions. So we are left with an
>> unsolved problem of distribution. Not least, just How do we
>> coordinate it? But also how do we do so stably enough that the
>> system is perceived as having some kind of legitimacy (close
>> enough to “fair”, to being individually negotiated and thus
>> allowing people to want different things, all the marginalist
>> Econ stuff).
>>
>> Take any other area. Gas-powered transportation. Well, maybe
>> you don’t “need” it in the sense that you can conjure a world
>> where you live and work close together and have support for
>> walk/bike/pubtrans etc. But where you are now, you and almost
>> everybody else in the US, has demographically committed to being
>> unable to do much of anything without plugging into that whole
>> “unnecessary” system. So some part of the economic inertia comes
>> just from the thick web of these commitments that people have
>> made, which leave them unable to withdraw from dependencies on
>> lots of complicated services.
>>
>> Easiest way to get 100,000V if you started with 100V? Coil some
>> wire to make an inductor, plug it into the wall, and then cut the
>> wire. Sudden shifts of anything have a dimension of problem just
>> from the timescale, in addition to whatever may have been
>> problems or virtues of the normal state of operation.
>>
>>
>> If one thinks that these kinds of “commitments” or “inertia” as
>> one principle, and the mechanics problem of negotiating a
>> widely-applicable and adequately stable set of permissions for
>> access to a wage as the second, are two broad “primary” drivers
>> of the restarting, then there is still a vast depth of
>> smaller-grained design choices that have accumulated since the
>> Industrial Age, in supply chains, transportation, management,
>> law, etc. It’s a hard web to change fast without a lot of chaos
>> that drowns a lot of people.
>>
>> However bad it was during the last depression, city people still
>> could go back to the farms, because there there was food, and
>> they could somehow chip in in exchange for eating, to get around
>> the coordination failure. Now, with all the permission massively
>> centralized, no people in the interior, and everything going
>> through bank credit, even that demographic shift no longer exists
>> as an option.
>>
>> There is a whole separate story about the fact that the predator
>> and parasite class are still there, and they aren’t going to
>> leave of their own accord, but I think that is more a story of
>> motive and how the mechanics gets steered and evolves, whereas
>> what I put above is just about what mechanics exists. I think
>> the mechanics will dominate in the immediate-short term.
>>
>> Very inadequate.
>>
>> Eric
>>
>>> On May 3, 2020, at 1:33 AM, <thompnickson2 at gmail.com
>>> <mailto:thompnickson2 at gmail.com>> <thompnickson2 at gmail.com
>>> <mailto:thompnickson2 at gmail.com>> wrote:
>>>
>>> Colleagues,
>>>
>>> I have asked this question before and nobody has responded (for
>>> clear and good reasons, no doubt) but I thought I would ask it
>>> again. What exactly is this economy we are bent on reviving?
>>> What exactly is the difference in human activity between our
>>> present state and a revived economy. We can go to bars and
>>> concerts and football games? Is that the economy we are
>>> reviving? It seems to me that the difference between a “healty”
>>> economy and our present status consists possibly in nothing more
>>> than a lot of people frantically rushing about doing things they
>>> don’t really need to do?
>>>
>>> You recall that I invoked as a model that experiment in which 24
>>> rats were put in a quarter acre enclosure in Baltimore and fed
>>> and watered and protected to see how the population would
>>> develop. They never got above two hundred. Infant mortality,
>>> etc., was appalling. Carnage. In the same space, a competent
>>> lab breeding organization could have kept a population of tens
>>> of thousands.
>>>
>>> Don’t yell at me. What fundamental proposition about economics
>>> do I not understand?
>>>
>>> Nick
>>>
>>> Nicholas Thompson
>>> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
>>> Clark University
>>> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com <mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com>
>>> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>>>
>>>
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