[FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

Thu May 7 00:22:02 EDT 2020

Statistics + pathogenesis would be ideal but the latter is still not fully
understood?

---
Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
Santa Fe, NM 87505

505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM

On Wed, May 6, 2020, 10:16 PM Marcus Daniels <marcus at snoutfarm.com> wrote:

> If there was ever a time statistical inference could work, it is when
> there are millions of infected people, hundreds of thousands of deaths, and
> a database that tracks biological and behavioral things about them.
>
>
>
> *From: *Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> on behalf of Joe Spinden <
> js at qri.us>
> *Reply-To: *The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
> friam at redfish.com>
> *Date: *Wednesday, May 6, 2020 at 8:02 PM
> *To: *"friam at redfish.com" <friam at redfish.com>
> *Subject: *Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? -
> The New York Times
>
>
>
> This endless parsing of the data strikes me as too difficult to accurately
> assess.
>
> A simpler approach might be to compare overall death rates from a
> comparable period, tentatively attributing at least a large part of the
> numerical differences to the main changed variable: COVID-19.
>
>
>
>
>
> On 5/6/20 8:44 PM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
>
> I think that is a little pessimistic.   If you look at, say, the UK
> Biobank, they have interviews with each subject characterizing things like
> work history, cognitive function, mental health, noise pollution and so
> on.    But they also have details on mortality and genomic sequences.
>
>
>
> *From: *Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> <friam-bounces at redfish.com> on
> behalf of Prof David West <profwest at fastmail.fm> <profwest at fastmail.fm>
> *Reply-To: *The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
> <friam at redfish.com> <friam at redfish.com>
> *Date: *Wednesday, May 6, 2020 at 7:40 PM
> *To: *"friam at redfish.com" <friam at redfish.com> <friam at redfish.com>
> <friam at redfish.com>
> *Subject: *Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? -
> The New York Times
>
>
>
> When we have comprehensive data — say a year from now — there will be
> hundreds of unexplained anomalies. All of the models and all of the
> formulas will be made more and more complex to try to account for those
> anomalies, the epidemiological and statistical equivalent of astronomical
> epicycles.
>
>
>
> And no one will look at variations in individual and group (10-100
> individuals) behavior and how they differ as a "function" of culture. And
> they will thereby miss the "explanation" for those anomalies.
>
>
>
> No grocery store in the Utah counties of Kane and Garfield, had had empty
> toilet paper, flour, or sanitizer shelves. Not fully stocked, absent the
> usual variety, but never empty. A statistical / economic / "scientific"
> study of these two counties and any other two counties in the US with
> similar populations and population density/distributions will never reveal
> the "reason" for this phenomenon. A cultural investigation will expose the
> "reason" almost immediately.
>
>
>
> I predict similar anomalies with regard spread of the disease and most
> importantly variations in death rates among those infected. And, the
> "reason" will again be cultural/behavioral.
>
>
>
> davew
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> On Wed, May 6, 2020, at 3:49 PM, thompnickson2 at gmail.com wrote:
>
> Doesn’t doubling time handle that problem?
>
>
>
> N
>
>
>
> Nicholas Thompson
>
> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
>
> Clark University
>
> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> <friam-bounces at redfish.com> *On
> Behalf Of *Steven A Smith
>
> *Sent:* Wednesday, May 6, 2020 2:00 PM
>
> *To:* friam at redfish.com
>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? -
> The New York Times
>
>
>
>
>
> On 5/6/20 1:54 PM, Frank Wimberly wrote:
>
> My  brother lives in Dahlonega, Lumpkin County, Georgia.  The map Georgia
> map surprises me Atlanta is not a hotspot.  Atlanta dominates the
> population of the State.  Southwest Georgia has a much higher
> concentration.  Georgia, unlike Pennsylvania, has a large population of
> rural African Americans.
>
> This just underscores how hard it is to make sense out of absolute
> numbers, or more to the point, numerators without denominators.    At least
> some of the charts of absolute numbers (as long as they are not
> renormalized from situation to situation) provide a visual estimation of
> "slope".
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> On Wed, May 6, 2020 at 1:43 PM Roger Critchlow <rec at elf.org> wrote:
>
> Hall County is a county located in the north central portion of the U.S.
> state of Georgia. As of the 2010 census, the population was 179,684. The
> county seat is Gainesville.
>
>
>
>
>
>
> https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/ provides
> maps of deaths and cases per county, raw numbers and per 100000 population.
>
>
>
> -- rec --
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> On Wed, May 6, 2020 at 3:18 PM uǝlƃ ☣ <gepropella at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> Hall: 20,441
>
> DeKalb: 759,297
>
>
>
> On 5/6/20 12:08 PM, thompnickson2 at gmail.com wrote:
>
> > Glen, those Hall/King comparisons are pretty dramatic.  Go Kemp! What is
> the population of the two counties?
>
>
>
> --
>
> ☣ uǝlƃ
>
>
>
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> --
>
> Frank Wimberly
>
> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz
>
> Santa Fe, NM 87505
>
> 505 670-9918
>
>
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> --
>
> Joe
>
>
>
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