[FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

[Steven A Smith]

Glen -

Very interesting view on these three counties...  numbers normalized to
population count and population density are a "good start"!

The question of what a good "mixing model" is for different geopolitical
demographics is fascinating.   It seems like McKinley/Gallup is on one
end of the spectrum (very low population density overall, but a strong
concentration in *one* location (or small set of service/shopping
locations IN Gallup)  serving the whole county population) vs Bernalillo
which has dozens of sub-communities where their sub-populations may stay
"close to home" if not always "at home", shopping at one or two of their
own neighborhood supermarkets/hardwares. 

Poverty (and rurality) may also correlate positively with delays in
diagnosis.   More people may be more used to just staying home and
weathering out an illness since going to the doc or urgent care can have
a significant hurdle financially and logistically (a tank of gas,
requiring the only reliable family vehicle, etc).   I'm assuming that
the "diagnosed case" date is not the presumed date of
exposure/contraction/onset-of-symptoms but rather the date of the return
of a test or of a declaration of a health-care worker.

- Steve

> Based on this discussion, I divided by population (per county, not a normalized amount like 100k) and land area (not including water area). The results are interesting. There was a report about a Gallup hospital having problems. So, I used McKinley county (NM) for comparison.
>
> The raw slopes still (I think) do the best to show what's happening. Dividing by population biases the data to magnify the low population county. Dividing by area magnifies the smaller counties (Bernalillo: 3k km^2, Santa Fe: 5k km^2, McKinley: 14k km^2). Dividing by both produces the same "phenotype" as the simple Δ's, but squashes out the profile shapes (e.g. the slight sigmoid in the Bernalillo slope).
>
> My standard mix with DeKalb, King, & Denver (and now Hall as well) shows even more interesting behavior, dividing out both population and area how Hall has caught up with Denver (a really bad sign since Denver County is very dense, mostly just the city of Denver and the airport, an order of magnitude denser than Hall). But i won't spam the list with this stuff anymore.
>
> On 5/6/20 3:13 PM, uǝlƃ ☣ wrote:
>> I think Δcases/m^2 would be interesting.
>
>
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