[FRIAM] ATTN: George Duncan

[thompnickson2 at gmail.com]

All, particularly, George-

 

In an earlier larding, I argued that Peirce's idea of truth is essentially a
statistical one.   So: 

 

Is it true that the coin I hold in my hand is a fair coin?  

 

Let the coin be flipped once, and it comes out heads, what do you think?  No
way of telling, right? OK.  Flip it again.  Heads again.  Two heads in a
row.  P=0.25.  Sure, I guess so.  It could be fair.  Flip it again. Hmmm.
Three heads in a row...Five heads in a row. P= 03125.  You know?  I think
that coin is probably not fair.  "Fair" in this formulation means the
infinite distribution of H and T coinflips is .5.  "Probably not" means, the
chances that this coin's flips are drawn from a .5 distribution is less than
0.0312 and my threshold of dis belief is 0.05.  Thus, when I  say that the
coin is not fair, that inference is in part a statement about me, and the
truth of the matter, the limit of the distribution of flips, is prospective.
But the notion that there can be some truths of some matters is absolutely
essential to science.  Why else would we flip the coin?  

 

Now George:  why am I bothering you about this.  Three questions:

1.	Is this valid statistical logic?  I ask because all psychologists
are only amateur statisticians, and many of us bugger up the logic. In
particular, we are known to confuse type I and type II error. 
2.	Is this Peirce's logic?  If not, what is Peirce's logic; and
3.	Is Peirce's logic the ORIGIN of the logic of statistical inference
that I was taught 60 years ago in graduate school**.  If so, which among the
famous statisticians, Pearson, Spearman, Fischer, etc., read Peirce?  

 

[signed]

 

TLOLTT*

 

* The Little Old Lady Tasting Tea

** RIP, Rheem Jarrett

 

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com <mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com> 

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

 

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