[FRIAM] ATTN: George Duncan

[George Duncan]

You are correct, Frank.

On Sun, May 24, 2020 at 8:36 PM Frank Wimberly <wimberly3 at gmail.com> wrote:

> "The concept "fair", entails, in its entirety, that the coin will, in the
> long run, produce an equal number of heads and tails with no pattern."
>
> George will correct me and I defer to his greater knowledge of probability
> theory.  I believe a fair coin the distribution of heads/tosses will have
> an expected value of 1/2.  For a large number of tosses the probability of
> an equal number of heads and tails is vanishingly small.
>
> Frank
>
> On Sun, May 24, 2020 at 8:25 PM Eric Charles <
> eric.phillip.charles at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> Nick,
>> I feel like this fast-forwarded some how. The first and most important
>> thing Perice wants is for us to think clearly about our concepts, right?
>>
>> So, before we get going into this, the first thing we need to do is
>> figure out whether we agree on the following:
>>
>> The concept "fair", entails, in its entirety, that the coin will, in the
>> long run, produce an equal number of heads and tails with no pattern.
>>
>> That is, while we can hypothesize about whether the coin is fair based on
>> all sorts of things - studying how it was made, measuring it's symmetry,
>> etc. - we recognize that any such evidence would be irrelevant in the face
>> of results from a very large number of flips.
>>
>> Phrased the other way around: The claim that a given coin is "fair", if
>> we are thinking clearly, a claim about what result we will see if we flip
>> the coin a very large number of times. Nothing more, nothing less. Though
>> we expect the construction of a coin to impact whether or not it is "fair",
>> we are definitely *not *asserting that it has any
>> particular construction when we assert that it is fair.**
>>
>>
>>
>> ** Note the connection with our prior discussion of psychological terms
>> and human insides.
>>
>> -----------
>> Eric P. Charles, Ph.D.
>> Department of Justice - Personnel Psychologist
>> American University - Adjunct Instructor
>> <echarles at american.edu>
>>
>>
>> On Sun, May 24, 2020 at 2:56 PM <thompnickson2 at gmail.com> wrote:
>>
>>> All, particularly, George—
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> In an earlier larding, I argued that Peirce’s idea of truth is
>>> essentially a statistical one.   So:
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Is it true that the coin I hold in my hand is a fair coin?
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Let the coin be flipped once, and it comes out heads, what do you
>>> think?  No way of telling, right? OK.  Flip it again.  Heads again.  Two
>>> heads in a row.  P=0.25.  Sure, I guess so.  It could be fair.  Flip it
>>> again. Hmmm. Three heads in a row………*Five* heads in a row. P= 03125.
>>> You know?  I think that coin is probably not fair.  “Fair” in this
>>> formulation means the infinite distribution of H and T coinflips is .5.
>>> “Probably not” means, the chances that this coin’s flips are drawn from a
>>> .5 distribution is less than 0.0312 and my threshold of dis belief is
>>> 0.05.  Thus, when I  say that the coin is not fair, that inference is in
>>> part a statement about me, and the truth of the matter, the limit of the
>>> distribution of flips, is prospective.  But the notion that there can be
>>> some truths of some matters is absolutely essential to science.  Why else
>>> would we flip the coin?
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Now George:  why am I bothering you about this.  Three questions:
>>>
>>>    1. Is this valid statistical logic?  I ask because all psychologists
>>>    are only amateur statisticians, and many of us bugger up the logic. In
>>>    particular, we are known to confuse type I and type II error.
>>>    2. Is this Peirce’s logic?  If not, what is Peirce’s logic; and
>>>    3. Is Peirce’s logic the ORIGIN of the logic of statistical
>>>    inference that I was taught 60 years ago in graduate school**.  If so,
>>>    which among the famous statisticians, Pearson, Spearman, Fischer, etc.,
>>>    read Peirce?
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> [signed]
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> TLOLTT*
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> * The Little Old Lady Tasting Tea
>>>
>>> ** RIP, Rheem Jarrett
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Nicholas Thompson
>>>
>>> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
>>>
>>> Clark University
>>>
>>> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com
>>>
>>> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> -- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. - .... . -..-. .
>>> ... ... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ...
>>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
>>> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam
>>> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
>>> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
>>> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
>>>
>> -- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. - .... . -..-. .
>> ... ... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ...
>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
>> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam
>> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
>> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
>> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
>>
>
>
> --
> Frank Wimberly
> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz
> <https://www.google.com/maps/search/140+Calle+Ojo+Feliz+Santa+Fe,+NM+87505?entry=gmail&source=g>
> Santa Fe, NM 87505
> <https://www.google.com/maps/search/140+Calle+Ojo+Feliz+Santa+Fe,+NM+87505?entry=gmail&source=g>
> 505 670-9918
> -- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. - .... . -..-. .
> ... ... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ...
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam
> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
>
-- 
George Duncan
Emeritus Professor of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University
georgeduncanart.com
See posts on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram
Land: (505) 983-6895
Mobile: (505) 469-4671

My art theme: Dynamic exposition of the tension between matrix order and
luminous chaos.

"Attempt what is not certain. Certainty may or may not come later. It may
then be a valuable delusion."
>From "Notes to myself on beginning a painting" by Richard Diebenkorn.

"It's that knife-edge of uncertainty where we come alive to our truest
power." Joanna Macy.
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/attachments/20200524/fdb432ca/attachment.html>