[FRIAM] Covid and Politics

Tue May 26 16:10:53 EDT 2020

Yes.  The virus will evolve toward benignity, but only IF the transmission rate is slowed.  If allowed full freedom, the virus will first evolve toward virility (high mortality rate) and then, as herd immunity is achieved, become mild and endemic.  Think of the competition within each host between the different strains.  The benign strain is making fewer copies of itself, but has a greater chance of being passed between hosts;  the virulent strain is making more copies, but in that effort, is killing off it’s hosts quicker.  It’s a trait group selection problem.  Under high transmissibility, the virulent strain wins; under low transmissibility, the benign strain wins. 

I hope I got that right. 

Nick   

Nick 

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

 <mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com

 <https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> On Behalf Of Prof David West
Sent: Tuesday, May 26, 2020 1:57 PM
To: friam at redfish.com
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Covid and Politics

Does not Ewald suggest that a virus might evolve to be more benign vis-a-vis its hosts so as to maximize the number of potential hosts, i.e. avoid killing them off and reducing their will and actions in resistance?

Probably totally misread him as that is not at all my field of interest.

davew

On Tue, May 26, 2020, at 1:49 PM, thompnickson2 at gmail.com <mailto:thompnickson2 at gmail.com>  wrote:

It gets even MORE interesting if we consider the variable environment to which the virus is optimizing.  According to Ewald’s theory <https://www.amazon.com/s?k=evolution+of+infectious+disease+by+paul+ewald&i=stripbooks&crid=2M9WVN279ILHB&sprefix=Paul+Ewald+evolu%2Cstripbooks%2C271&ref=nb_sb_ss_i_1_16> , the virulence of the virus evolves in relation to its Ro, so a more transmissible virus will become more virulent, etc and vv.

n 

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

 <mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com

 <https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com <mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com> > On Behalf Of Marcus Daniels

Sent: Tuesday, May 26, 2020 1:36 PM

To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam at redfish.com <mailto:friam at redfish.com> >

Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Covid and Politics

Dave writes:

< 3.5 million deaths is perfectly acceptable. Mostly because that total will accumulate at a rate of 150-170,000 per year which puts COVID in the lower half of the top five causes of death in the US. >

It gets more interesting if SARS-Cov2 is optimizing itself. 

Marcus

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