[FRIAM] SFe not doing so well

[Steve Smith]

I have mixed feelings about the NM Governors messaging right now.  The
highway marquee signs I see say something like "hospitals full - 2 week
reset - stay home" but we also got a statewide txt message like an amber
alert with yet more dire warning... as if the dams upstream had broken
and a 50' wall of water was going to sweep us away just as we were
reading the text... or if we had a basement we should dive into it
because a tornado was already in the process of ripping our house off
its foundation.  The former worked for me, the latter just seemed
hysterical.  Maybe this is what it takes.   I was out and about myself
yesterday (finding internet from a cell tower since my home link was
down!) and saw a *lot* of traffic in Pojoaque and Espanola, both
automobile and foot and not nearly as many masks as during the April-May
hard shutdown.

I take it as a rough rule of thumb that if I cut my contacts in half
I've cut my (potential) Ro in half...  even if I have it
(asymptomatically) I am half as likely to pass it on.  Same for everyone
else, with bias of course against the gadflies and the irresponsibles
(no masks, etc.).   The lag time for results, both on tightening and
loosening makes it hard to "steer" this huge cruise-ship of fools that
we are.


> Actually I think the proper connection is that when /everyone/ gets
> scared, the virus eases (if not easing, it is finding it harder to
> find victims). Unfortunately, once it eases some, people get less
> scared and then get C-19.
>
> —Barry
>
> On 17 Nov 2020, at 10:56, thompnickson2 at gmail.com
> <mailto:thompnickson2 at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>     Anecdotal "evidence".  Two weeks ago, I hadn't known anybody  _who
>     knew anybody_  who had tested positive; today I know two.  No
>     connection between them.   It appears that only fear regulates the
>     distribution of the virus.  Myself, I am up to March fear level. 
>     Narcissistic Abduction: Now that I am scared, perhaps the virus
>     will ease off? 
>
>      
>
>     Nick
>
>
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