[FRIAM] flu versus COVID

[Marcus Daniels]

When the populace won't tolerate this the populace won't get this.   But mostly people are morons.

-----Original Message-----
From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> On Behalf Of Prof David West
Sent: Saturday, September 12, 2020 11:33 AM
To: friam at redfish.com
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] flu versus COVID

Nothing in my post was intended to malign Fauci, nor attack his credibility. I did attempt to call him on a specific mistake (one he may have later corrected). He is not among the "powers that be."

I totally stand by my accusation that "governance by fear" seems to have become the default for setting policy  — fear of pornography to justify repressive Web policies; fear of drugs to justify repressive regulation on use; fear of crime to justify militarization of police; fear of WMD to justify Iraq; fear of terror to justify TSA, fear of extinction to justify carbon regulation; fear of COVID to justify lock down.

I have a real problem with this trend. One, it denigrates and devalues the populace as too dumb to understand the real issues, the messiness of incomplete but increasing knowledge, and the complexity and provisionality of solutions; two, any error, however minor, has the power to call into question the whole; and three it is ultimately self-defeating.

davew




On Sat, Sep 12, 2020, at 10:42 AM, glen∉ℂ wrote:
> Never ascribe malice (or governance by fear) when incompetence will 
> suffice. -- paraphrased from some pithy archetype somewhere sometime.
> 
> I was totally with you until the last 2 paragraphs, though I haven't 
> checked your facts. In my posts about "credibility", I tried to lay 
> out the idea that someone like Fauci is NOT properly labeled 
> [in]credible because of any single act/statement or even the truth 
> status of one or several acts/statements. Credibility comes from 
> consistent *care*, including revisiting things later and making 
> attempts to abut or correct previous acts/statements.
> 
> Fauci shows such care. Therefore, Fauci is credible, even if he's made mistakes.
> 
> When you talk about ruling through fear, the real culprit is, as EricS 
> pointed out, the political pressure on people like Fauci to render 
> opinions *aligned* with some party line. To accuse Fauci of such in 
> light of the recent news from Woodward's book and the pressure on CDC 
> rank and file is disinformation. You're focus on the victim makes your 
> post incredible disinformation, even if (or especially if) the first 
> part of your post is factual. It's a typical abuse of facts to foster 
> a false narrative.
> 
> But it's also important to realize we're all, always, susceptible to 
> such faulty reasoning. Attempts to be diligent and correct in such is 
> the source of credibility. I was once accused of being a spammer 
> because I posted too much, even though my accuser admitted the
> *content* of my posts were on topic and not spam, the very volume was 
> offensive to him. This is yet another example of normal people's small 
> appetite for verbosity. Pithiness, pseudo-profound bullshit, and false 
> narratives are all aspects of the same beast. It's impossible to 
> harden ourselves to such risk without holing up in our echo-chamber 
> dungeons, surrounded by others who've "jumped over the bar" to be 
> included in our in-group.
> 
> 
> On 9/12/20 7:44 AM, Prof David West wrote:
> > Sloppy reporting, and sloppy pronouncements — yes, you Dr. Fauci — have contaminated the discussion about COVID and appropriate responses. Specifically with regard equating or improperly substituting IFR with CFR.
> > 
> > IFR = infection fatality rate
> > CFR = case fatality rate
> > 
> > A "case"requires symptoms.
> > 
> > Seasonal flu has an IFR of 0.1% and a CFR of 2-3%
> > 
> > COVID has an IFR of 1.0% [initially WHO and CDC stated a higher 
> > percent] and a CFR of 2-3%
> > 
> > For whatever reason, Dr Fauci and other official statements have compared COVID's CFR to the flu's IFR to assert the "deadliness" of the disease and to justify draconian measures.
> > 
> > Naysayers, compare CFR to CFR to assert that COVID is no more deadly than the flu. They are correct. With the "TRUTH" on their side, they rail against the lock down.
> > 
> > There is a justification for social distancing and masks in the difference between IFR and IFR coupled with the higher infection rate of COVID and the flu( a lot of flu immunity exists), plus the "infectious phase" of 12 days (COVID) instead of 2 (flu).
> > 
> > In my opinion the "powers that be" have such a low opinion of the average intelligence of the populace that they misrepresent the data in order to scare the crap out of people in order to get them to comply with directives instead of making the reasonable and correct, but more nuanced and complicated, factual argument for their policies.
> > 
> > Governance by fear seems to be standard operating procedure these days. 9-11 yielded the TSA abomination (expensive, ineffective and annoying). Can't wait to see what COVID inflicts — especially with the talk of "forced vaccinations" I have heard bandied about.
> 
> 
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