[FRIAM] lockdowns

[Gillian Densmore]

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On Tue, Apr 6, 2021 at 12:55 PM <thompnickson2 at gmail.com> wrote:

> Dave, and all,
>
>
>
> One of the central ideas of the original (French, 19 century) positivism
> is the idea that some phenomena (like crime) are very stable at the
> aggregate level, even though high unpredictable at the individual level.
> (i.e., we are much better at predicting how many murders there will be in
> Paris this year than we are at predicting who will murder whom.)  (I say
> this with all the confidence of an Old Fart who is losing his memory but
> not his confidence in his memory.)   Now, I have been trying to work out a
> theory concerning the relation between lockdowns and fear based on my
> assumption that the statistical relation between fear and transmission is
> precise, but the relation between lockdowns and transmission and lockdowns
> and fear is wooly.  I am assuming that there is a delayed feedback relation
> between fear and transmission such that when transmission is down, fear
> goes down and then transmission rises and then fear rises, resulting in the
> wild oscillations characteristic of delayed feedback systems.  Ok, so let's
> start with the assumption that if we were able to abstract this delayed
> feedback cycle from the data, would there be any variance left to attribute
> to lockdowns and other forms of public policy.  I am not entirely sure what
> the effect of lockdowns is on fear.  I can imagine that lockdowns actually
> reduce fear in some people.  Seeing that others are careful, I am a little
> less careful, etc.  But I can also imagine that lockdowns increase
> compliance is some other people, whose social anxiety is stronger than
> their viral anxiety.   Could these two effects more or less cancel one
> another out?  Or could their effect be to enhance the oscillation in the
> basic delayed feedback system, since public policy has characteristically
> been a follower, not a leader, of fear.
>
>
>
> But Dave, as often, I detect in you a desire that lockdowns be nugatory.
> What is the basis for that *desire?*
>
>
>
> Nick
>
>
>
> Nick Thompson
>
> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> On Behalf Of u?l? ???
> Sent: Monday, March 15, 2021 4:19 PM
> To: friam at redfish.com
> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] lockdowns
>
>
>
> Both Bhattacharya and Ioannidis have been vocal in opposing lockdowns,
> even to the extent of lobbying for herd immunity. That they *confirmed*
> their political biases is not news. It would be interesting to see if they
> preregistered their hypotheses and analysis methods.
>
>
>
> On 3/15/21 2:56 PM, Prof David West wrote:
>
> > the AP published a study that seems to demonstrate lock downs had no
> effect on Corona spread. South Dakota and Connecticut (small states) had
> very similar outcomes despite widely variant degree of lock down. So too
> Florida and California, the latter draconian while the former laissez-faire.
>
> >
>
> > Of course all the usual caveats applicable to such studies apply.
>
> >
>
> > I wonder if any country/state would dare to do an honest cost-benefit
> study?
>
>
>
>
>
> --
>
> ↙↙↙ uǝlƃ
>
>
>
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