[FRIAM] Fwd: A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

Thu Apr 15 23:21:15 EDT 2021

First rule of parliamentary order: You do not get to call the question in the same speech in which you offer comment.  

You are out of order. 

(};-)]

Nick Thompson

 <mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com

 <https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> On Behalf Of Merle Lefkoff
Sent: Thursday, April 15, 2021 4:41 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam at redfish.com>
Subject: [FRIAM] Fwd: A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

I'm afraid I have to bail from this stream because it causes me to question once more how people in the West get educated.  

Pieter,

I meant the “has to be” a bit ironically.  The sound of an ugly fact puncturing a beautiful theory.  Psssssst! 

If I were to believe that populations were rising, that copper use was rising,  that copper supplies were flat or dwindling, why would I not expect copper prices to be rising?  

Which of my assumptions is wrong.  

Or is it your expectation that we will develop a plastic with the conductive properties of copper? 

Nick Thompson

 <mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com

 <https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com <mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com> > On Behalf Of Pieter Steenekamp
Sent: Thursday, April 15, 2021 1:03 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam at redfish.com <mailto:friam at redfish.com> >
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

Nick,

I'm not with you, what HAS to be wrong?

It's impossible to predict the future, anything could happen. I'm particularly attracted to the views of David Deutsch. I quote from his https://www.thebeginningofinfinity.com/ :
"  The resulting stream of ever-improving explanations has potentially  infinite reach: we are subject only to the laws of physics, and they impose no upper limit to what we can eventually understand, control, and achieve.  "

Life on earth is good and is getting better and better for all of us. Sure, a disaster could strike, nothing is inevitable, but I can see no reason why the progress we have made HAS to stop. Why?

On Thu, 15 Apr 2021 at 20:11, <thompnickson2 at gmail.com <mailto:thompnickson2 at gmail.com> > wrote:

Pieter,

That just HAS to be wrong.  What am I missing, here?  NOT a rhetorical question. 

Does anybody know, in orders of magnitude, the relation between the potential rooftop gain and the total energy needs of a place like Santa Fe?

N

Nick Thompson

 <mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com

 <https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com <mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com> > On Behalf Of Pieter Steenekamp
Sent: Thursday, April 15, 2021 11:58 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam at redfish.com <mailto:friam at redfish.com> >
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

Yeah, just like we were seriously running out of stuff in 1980
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon%E2%80%93Ehrlich_wager
But of course, it's different this time around

On Thu, 15 Apr 2021 at 19:41, Merle Lefkoff <merlelefkoff at gmail.com <mailto:merlelefkoff at gmail.com> > wrote:

Nick, I think we have an energy supply problem.  We don't have enough stuff left in the ground to dig up to supply our technology much longer at a price anyone can afford.  I have a colleague who has calculated that we will run out of copper in three years, as just one example.  My understanding is that copper wire conducts most of our electricity.   

On Thu, Apr 15, 2021 at 11:17 AM <thompnickson2 at gmail.com <mailto:thompnickson2 at gmail.com> > wrote:

Merle, and all, 

A naïve question:  Do we have an energy supply problem or do we have an energy distribution problem?   For starters, let there be a solar collector on the roof of every house in santa fe, roughly the area of the roof (roofly the area of the rough?) .  Assuming energy were entirely miscible, what proportion of the total energy needs (except food, of course) of Santa Feans would that generate.  I assume hundreds of percents, right?  

N

Nick Thompson

 <mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com

 <https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com <mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com> > On Behalf Of Merle Lefkoff
Sent: Thursday, April 15, 2021 10:51 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam at redfish.com <mailto:friam at redfish.com> >
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

Almost, but not quite, Jochen.  He doesn't know about embodied energy.  A motor car has an embodied energy contents of 20 800k kWh, while an electric car's embodied energy amounts to 34 700 kWh.  Perhaps if he knew this he wouldn't be so optimistic.  We are racing toward our doom.

On Thu, Apr 15, 2021 at 10:06 AM Jochen Fromm <jofr at cas-group.net <mailto:jofr at cas-group.net> > wrote:

Interesting IEEE podcast: an interview with Václav Smil, who wrote a book about "Grand Transitions", similar to "The Major Transitions in Evolution" from John Maynard Smith and Eörs Szathmáry 

https://spectrum.ieee.org/podcast/geek-life/history/a-theory-of-almost-everything

-J.

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-- 

Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
Center for Emergent Diplomacy
emergentdiplomacy.org <http://emergentdiplomacy.org> 

Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA

mobile:  (303) 859-5609
skype:  merle.lelfkoff2

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-- 

Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
Center for Emergent Diplomacy
emergentdiplomacy.org <http://emergentdiplomacy.org> 

Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA

mobile:  (303) 859-5609
skype:  merle.lelfkoff2

twitter: @merle110

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-- 

Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
Center for Emergent Diplomacy
emergentdiplomacy.org <http://emergentdiplomacy.org> 

Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA

mobile:  (303) 859-5609
skype:  merle.lelfkoff2

twitter: @merle110

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