[FRIAM] Fwd: A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum

[Merle Lefkoff]

No, Stephen, not Eric.

On Thu, Apr 15, 2021 at 10:07 PM Stephen Guerin <stephen.guerin at simtable.com>
wrote:

> Merle,
>
> Hopefully you aren't referring to Eric's suggestion for a framework of
> analysis and planning. I suspect your use of Embodied Energy is
> complimentary to his description.
>
> On Thu, Apr 15, 2021, 4:41 PM Merle Lefkoff <merlelefkoff at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
>> I'm afraid I have to bail from this stream because it causes me to
>> question once more how people in the West get educated.
>>
>>
>>> Pieter,
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> I meant the “has to be” a bit ironically.  The sound of an ugly fact
>>> puncturing a beautiful theory.  Psssssst!
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> If I were to believe that populations were rising, that copper use was
>>> rising,  that copper supplies were flat or dwindling, why would I not
>>> expect copper prices to be rising?
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Which of my assumptions is wrong.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Or is it your expectation that we will develop a plastic with the
>>> conductive properties of copper?
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Nick Thompson
>>>
>>> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com
>>>
>>> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> *On Behalf Of *Pieter
>>> Steenekamp
>>> *Sent:* Thursday, April 15, 2021 1:03 PM
>>> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
>>> friam at redfish.com>
>>> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Nick,
>>>
>>> I'm not with you, what HAS to be wrong?
>>>
>>> It's impossible to predict the future, anything could happen. I'm
>>> particularly attracted to the views of David Deutsch. I quote from his
>>> https://www.thebeginningofinfinity.com/ :
>>> "  The resulting stream of ever-improving explanations has potentially  *infinite
>>> reach*: we are subject only to the laws of physics, and they impose no
>>> upper limit to what we can eventually understand, control, and achieve.
>>> "
>>>
>>> Life on earth is good and is getting better and better for all of us.
>>> Sure, a disaster could strike, nothing is inevitable, but I can see no
>>> reason why the progress we have made HAS to stop. Why?
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> On Thu, 15 Apr 2021 at 20:11, <thompnickson2 at gmail.com> wrote:
>>>
>>> Pieter,
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> That just HAS to be wrong.  What am I missing, here?  NOT a rhetorical
>>> question.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Does anybody know, in orders of magnitude, the relation between the
>>> potential rooftop gain and the total energy needs of a place like Santa Fe?
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> N
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Nick Thompson
>>>
>>> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com
>>>
>>> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> *On Behalf Of *Pieter
>>> Steenekamp
>>> *Sent:* Thursday, April 15, 2021 11:58 AM
>>> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
>>> friam at redfish.com>
>>> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Yeah, just like we were seriously running out of stuff in 1980
>>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon%E2%80%93Ehrlich_wager
>>> But of course, it's different this time around
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> On Thu, 15 Apr 2021 at 19:41, Merle Lefkoff <merlelefkoff at gmail.com>
>>> wrote:
>>>
>>> Nick, I think we have an energy supply problem.  We don't have enough
>>> stuff left in the ground to dig up to supply our technology much longer at
>>> a price anyone can afford.  I have a colleague who has calculated that we
>>> will run out of copper in three years, as just one example.  My
>>> understanding is that copper wire conducts most of our electricity.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> On Thu, Apr 15, 2021 at 11:17 AM <thompnickson2 at gmail.com> wrote:
>>>
>>> Merle, and all,
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> A naïve question:  Do we have an energy supply problem or do we have an
>>> energy distribution problem?   For starters, let there be a solar collector
>>> on the roof of every house in santa fe, roughly the area of the roof
>>> (roofly the area of the rough?) .  Assuming energy were entirely miscible,
>>> what proportion of the total energy needs (except food, of course) of Santa
>>> Feans would that generate.  I assume hundreds of percents, right?
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> N
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Nick Thompson
>>>
>>> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com
>>>
>>> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> *On Behalf Of *Merle Lefkoff
>>> *Sent:* Thursday, April 15, 2021 10:51 AM
>>> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
>>> friam at redfish.com>
>>> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Almost, but not quite, Jochen.  He doesn't know about embodied energy.
>>> A motor car has an embodied energy contents of 20 800k kWh, while an
>>> electric car's embodied energy amounts to 34 700 kWh.  Perhaps if he knew
>>> this he wouldn't be so optimistic.  We are racing toward our doom.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> On Thu, Apr 15, 2021 at 10:06 AM Jochen Fromm <jofr at cas-group.net>
>>> wrote:
>>>
>>> Interesting IEEE podcast: an interview with Václav Smil, who wrote a
>>> book about "Grand Transitions", similar to "The Major Transitions in
>>> Evolution" from John Maynard Smith and Eörs Szathmáry
>>>
>>>
>>> https://spectrum.ieee.org/podcast/geek-life/history/a-theory-of-almost-everything
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> -J.
>>>
>>>
>>>
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>>>
>>>
>>> --
>>>
>>> Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
>>> Center for Emergent Diplomacy
>>> emergentdiplomacy.org
>>>
>>> Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA
>>>
>>>
>>> mobile:  (303) 859-5609
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>>>
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>>> --
>>>
>>> Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
>>> Center for Emergent Diplomacy
>>> emergentdiplomacy.org
>>>
>>> Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA
>>>
>>>
>>> mobile:  (303) 859-5609
>>> skype:  merle.lelfkoff2
>>>
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>>
>> --
>> Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
>> Center for Emergent Diplomacy
>> emergentdiplomacy.org
>> Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA
>>
>> mobile:  (303) 859-5609
>> skype:  merle.lelfkoff2
>> twitter: @merle110
>>
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-- 
Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
Center for Emergent Diplomacy
emergentdiplomacy.org
Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA

mobile:  (303) 859-5609
skype:  merle.lelfkoff2
twitter: @merle110
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