[FRIAM] semi-idle question

Steve Smith sasmyth at swcp.com
Sat Apr 24 14:33:12 EDT 2021 

DaveW -

I think the eugenics movement(s) of the last century as well as the many
clan structures in indigenous peoples and royal bloodlines throughout
history have been structured with the aspiration of either inducing
genetic drift in a desired direction, or (in the case of clan structures
and incest taboos) perhaps mute it's worst outcomes.

The divergence of Neandertalis/Devonisis/Sapiens presumed to have
happened hundreds of thousands of years ago and the
reconvergence/subsumption roughly 40,000 years ago seem to represent the
most *significant* evolution we know of among "modern" humans...    The
time-scales I consider in your questoin are on the order of hundreds of
years, not tens or hundreds of thousands.   That alone suggests to me
that we will not see anything we can measure as "evolution".   The
divergence of traits we identify as "race" seem to have happened over
tens of thousands of years as well.   From our experience with domestic
animal breeding, we probably have (refer to Eugenics literature) some
sense of how many generations it would take us to "breed in" or "breed
out" various traits.  

As Marcus and other technophile/posthumanist proponents have indicated,
it seems that germline modification (e.g. CRISPR) is likely to become
acutely more significant (for the first world?) than any natural
"drift", much less evolution by natural selection.


And then all the ways we might entirely stunt/block evolution:

   
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/texas-rancher-cloned-deer-lawmakers-want-legalize_n_607ef3e0e4b03c18bc29fdd2

Who knew we had come this far from Dolly
<https://dolly.roslin.ed.ac.uk/facts/the-life-of-dolly/index.html>?

Can species NOT involved in deliberate breeding programs (e.g. wild
things) evolve quickly enough to stay ahead of the anthropogenic changes
afoot?   I think the simple answer is "hell yes!" but the more
interesting relevant answer is sadly more like "barely" or "probably not
hardly" if we are talking about our favorite or photogenic species
(large mammals, colorful birds, ...  in particular).

For better or worse, the large mammal strategies including high
mass/surface ratios also yield longer dependency and reproductive lags,
so while the bacteria might achieve population doubling in tens of
minutes, Whales, Elephants, Polar Bears and Humans have reproductive
periods on the order of decades.

I think the Big Green Lie thread is asking if human *cultural* or
*social* evolution can be quick enough to avert the disasters we think
(some of us) we see looming on the near horizon.   A very specific
(engineered?) pandemic might yield a very acute selection pressure.

In the wild, maybe in the niche areas where conditions are going out of
human survival range (e.g. dewpoint too high for human sweat-cooling to
maintain a temperature below the threshold for breakdown of enzymes (and
other metabolic macromolecules) will uncover/select-out those with
metabolisms more able to skirt that hairy edge...  but how many
generations of that kind of selection (without significant mixing with
other populations) would be required to see a coherent gene pool
reflecting that survival trait?   And with modern
knowledge/travel/technology, the chances of humans staying put and
enduring those conditions and NOT creating/importing some form of
mechanical/chemical refrigeration (or just moving into pit-houses
coupled to the much lower temperature earth?)

I'm definitely not going to depend on it!

- Steve

On 4/24/21 10:50 AM, thompnickson2 at gmail.com wrote:
>
> Well, it’s obviously both/and with trade-offs between. 
>
>  
>
> Please see attached.  It’s short.  
>
>  
>
> Nick
>
>  
>
> Nick Thompson
>
> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com <mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com>
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
> <https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/>
>
>  
>
> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> *On Behalf Of *Merle Lefkoff
> *Sent:* Friday, April 23, 2021 9:21 AM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
> <friam at redfish.com>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] semi-idle question
>
>  
>
> Dave, I found this in Wikipedia:  "The social brain hypothesis was
> proposed by British anthropologist Robin Dunbar
> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robin_Dunbar>, who argues that human
> intelligence did not evolve primarily as a means to solve ecological
> problems, but rather as a means of surviving and reproducing in large
> and complex social groups."
>
>  
>
> That might explain why we are now leading our species off the cliff. 
>
>  
>
> On Fri, Apr 23, 2021 at 7:12 AM Prof David West <profwest at fastmail.fm
> <mailto:profwest at fastmail.fm>> wrote:
>
>     Can human beings evolve?
>
>     Was reading about Pepper Moths in England during the Industrial
>     Revolution. (population genetics)
>
>     Population was white with dark spots and the occasional dark
>     colored moth was easy prey.
>     Pollution killed lichen and caused the trees (moth's habitat) to
>     be covered in soot, turning them dark.
>     Population of black moths went from 2% in 1848 to 95% by 1895.
>
>     Is is possible for humans to evolve in response to climate change
>     in a similar way? more general prevalence of melanin, craving for
>     spicy hot food?
>
>     Of course moths used many generations to achieve their change and
>     their lifespan is a fraction of a humans, so extinction is more
>     likely than adaptation. But, is it at least possible in principle?
>
>     davew
>
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>
> -- 
>
> Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
> Center for Emergent Diplomacy
> emergentdiplomacy.org <http://emergentdiplomacy.org>
>
> Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA
>
>
> mobile:  (303) 859-5609
> skype:  merle.lelfkoff2
>
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