[FRIAM] vax v unvax

David Eric Smith desmith at santafe.edu
Wed Aug 18 23:04:40 EDT 2021 

Indeed, Roger, 

Spirit of fun in the original already very clear.

Why I get some sort of pleasure, when there is already a perfectly good reductio ad absurdum, in looking for ways to change its appearance of tautology, I do not understand.  Fortunately _that_ is not an important question.

Eric



> On Aug 19, 2021, at 11:50 AM, Roger Critchlow <rec at elf.org> wrote:
> 
> Eric -
> 
> No problem with the modification, I was just making noise at that point:  death panels, statistical police, knowledge is oppression, and so on.
> 
> I see, Morris did exactly what you were suggesting and then went on to itemize every quibble that might come up in the conclusion.
> 
> I might even remember Simpson's Paradox after this, at least for a few days.
> 
> -- rec --
> 
> -- rec --
> 
> On Wed, Aug 18, 2021 at 8:27 PM Frank Wimberly <wimberly3 at gmail.com <mailto:wimberly3 at gmail.com>> wrote:
> So that's why I'm feeling uneasy as I approach 80.  😐
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ---
> Frank C. Wimberly
> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, 
> Santa Fe, NM 87505
> 
> 505 670-9918
> Santa Fe, NM
> 
> On Wed, Aug 18, 2021, 5:38 PM David Eric Smith <desmith at santafe.edu <mailto:desmith at santafe.edu>> wrote:
> May I offer a tiny rewording to one of your sentences, Roger?
> 
> Given that right now I am in a months-long redraft of a paper, which feels like having my teeth drilled, trying to say some things about the difference between what one can do with summary statistics and what one does with population-wide regressions.  I am in a situation where I can’t use terms (this community doesn’t use them), can’t cite to where they are explained (not their literature; they will not go follow a cite), and can’t explain them in-line (too long; people don’t want to read all that).  Complain complain complain.
> 
> Interesting thing is that the particular “data” we are getting are, of course, summary statistics. So:
> 
> You said:
> 
>> Next the statistics police will be telling us how to use the data!
> 
> 
> How about:
> 
>> Next the statistics police will be telling us how to use the statistics!
> 
> 
> Eric
> 
> 
>> On Aug 19, 2021, at 7:00 AM, Roger Critchlow <rec at elf.org <mailto:rec at elf.org>> wrote:
>> 
>> The Israeli data turned up in Andrew Gelman's blog today
>> 
>> https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2021/08/18/coronavirus-and-simpsons-paradox-oldsters-are-more-likely-to-be-vaccinated-and-more-likely-to-have-severe-infections-so-you-need-to-adjust-for-age-when-comparing-vaccinated-and-unvaccinated-peopl/ <https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2021/08/18/coronavirus-and-simpsons-paradox-oldsters-are-more-likely-to-be-vaccinated-and-more-likely-to-have-severe-infections-so-you-need-to-adjust-for-age-when-comparing-vaccinated-and-unvaccinated-peopl/>
>> 
>> The argument broken out in his correspondent's blog:
>> 
>> https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/israeli-data-how-can-efficacy-vs-severe-disease-be-strong-when-60-of-hospitalized-are-vaccinated <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.covid-datascience.com%2fpost%2fisraeli-data-how-can-efficacy-vs-severe-disease-be-strong-when-60-of-hospitalized-are-vaccinated&c=E,1,r88QWsw9ZFie03L99WBI-GfoUio7QJL9q0f6LgfquHy6yusuS3afGu9rl-P2qKIe3neZBMCmbb-dV2vLzn84I9vqbj9PkeulwJ9dRSdlThEZ27Vn6yCOrCAc&typo=1>
>> 
>> Next the statistics police will be telling us how to use the data!
>> 
>> Oh, and someone noticed that a lot of the unvaccinated can't afford to take two days off for vaccination side effects, no medical leave, you could try offering her 2 days and a few hours pay to get vaccinated.
>> 
>> -- rec --
>> 
>> 
>> On Wed, Aug 18, 2021 at 4:58 PM Marcus Daniels <marcus at snoutfarm.com <mailto:marcus at snoutfarm.com>> wrote:
>> Another hypothesis is that they tend to be less engaged in the economy and their communities and so are thus less susceptible; smaller social networks and lower spatial density.  And further they attach themselves to these crazy ideas because no one ever has the opportunity to push back except people that go way out of their way like Glen.
>> 
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com <mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com>> On Behalf Of David Eric Smith
>> Sent: Wednesday, August 18, 2021 1:09 PM
>> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam at redfish.com <mailto:friam at redfish.com>>
>> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] vax v unvax
>> 
>> This is one that it would be nice to see broken down by age and other conditions.
>> 
>> If unvaxxed hospitalizations are a true “cross section of America” (like jury duty), whereas the vaxxed ones are mainly old or sick with something else, that would be an important variable for deriving a risk profile  by category.
>> 
>> Time, time, time, to chase things down….
>> 
>> Eric
>> 
>> > On Aug 19, 2021, at 4:53 AM, uǝlƃ ☤>$ <gepropella at gmail.com <mailto:gepropella at gmail.com>> wrote:
>> > 
>> > 
>> > Soooo ... our house cleaner is anti-vax. My friends tell me we should fire her. I've resisted confronting her over it. But hospitals being overrun influenced me to press her a little bit. I claimed that the majority of hospitalizations are the unvaxxed. She claimed that down near her (I think closer to Centralia, WA), it was flipped, that the majority of hospitalizations were vaccinated. We had the usual conversation where she ended with "you believe your data and I believe my data" blather. So I decided to see if I could find news articles claiming the majority of hospitalized covid cases are the vaccinated. And I found this:
>> > 
>> > Higher Death, Hospitalization Rates Among Vaccinated Individuals: UK 
>> > COVID-19 Data
>> > https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.visiontimes.co <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.visiontimes.co>
>> > m%2f2021%2f07%2f04%2fdeaths-hospital-vaccinated-uk.html&c=E,1,S5wT7eG_
>> > LxnTLuUE1RbuVEziaTP99eeGAnZxv_dtTYhpTiIkicxQt2mvokLXVbixkXhDcXvoLjNg1n
>> > GUqSLe66RnTqmVs_5EGMgv3Z6cPUYQEg,,&typo=1
>> > 
>> > Most COVID-19 Patients at Israel Hospital Fully Vaccinated, Doctor Calls Mandates ‘Diabolic’
>> > https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.visiontimes.co <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.visiontimes.co>
>> > m%2f2021%2f08%2f08%2fisrael-hospital-vaccinated.html&c=E,1,FDPrPMNiU5e
>> > 621cpzQhoViPiTlcpkww8iHTLVFR9vwhMrJ_5m1j77NIXnZYqEweYmhJcGmbR5PUWpuOvQ
>> > F1ZPV23_7Fw9AKvzzPGnjmS-w,,&typo=1
>> > 
>> > They're both from the "Vision Times", which looks to me like a Falun Gong outlet, popular with Trumpists, anti-CCP, etc. So, I don't really want to do any debunking or verification. I *want* to write it off as garbage. But their source: https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fassets.publishing.service.gov.uk%2fgovernment%2fuploads%2fsystem%2fuploads%2fattachment_data%2ffile%2f1001359%2fVariants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_16.pdf&c=E,1,Z0AX7_CvU6zmg1ca9s0IY3_E3dshyhV2o2XdB9IZiLRuF4FqVWdK_4ijYuyJIk-wyRPEoaaRJUlchbHLmor1XP3Y-0_ioCec73m-PpoXtafAhLUS702P8MUqhA,,&typo=1 <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fassets.publishing.service.gov.uk%2fgovernment%2fuploads%2fsystem%2fuploads%2fattachment_data%2ffile%2f1001359%2fVariants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_16.pdf&c=E,1,Z0AX7_CvU6zmg1ca9s0IY3_E3dshyhV2o2XdB9IZiLRuF4FqVWdK_4ijYuyJIk-wyRPEoaaRJUlchbHLmor1XP3Y-0_ioCec73m-PpoXtafAhLUS702P8MUqhA,,&typo=1> seems legit. And the numbers in the article seem to match Table 4.
>> > 
>> > Plugging in the numbers from the latest briefing: 
>> > https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars <https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars>
>> > -cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
>> > 
>> > It really does seem to show that the death rate among vaxxed is higher than that among unvaxxed.
>> > 
>> > The LifeSiteNews site is obviously troll nonsense. But my concern is mostly about that tech report from the UK and Herzog Hospital. Are these counter examples to the NYT unvax/vax data? Are they small enough to be within error?
>> > 
>> > --
>> > ☤>$ uǝlƃ
>> > 
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