[FRIAM] vax v unvax
Sarbajit Roy
sroy.mb at gmail.com
Fri Aug 20 06:43:42 EDT 2021
This article may help
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01377-8.pdf
On Thu, Aug 19, 2021 at 8:36 PM Roger Critchlow <rec at elf.org> wrote:
> What boggles my mind is that the aggregated results are so
> consistently wrong. The aggregated efficacy of 67.5% is less than all the
> stratified efficacies. The 2 group efficacies are less than 9 out of 10 of
> the 10 group efficacies. I imagine plotting this and getting a little
> firework as the efficacy rates just keep going up and up. All of the
> aggregated efficacies are underestimates for all or almost all of the
> stratified efficacies.
>
> I just read a NYTimes brief on measuring vaccine efficacy and saw plots in
> which the single number estimate for efficacy was surrounded by a region of
> uncertainty, which is what I expect when someone gives me a single number
> estimate of some measurement. I'm guessing that the clinical trials
> balanced age group participation in the trials so all age groups had the
> same vaccination rate, but I don't see how they could design to control for
> the increasing frailty of older bodies. Is it possible that the single
> number efficacy estimates understate the efficacy
>
> Oh, the quantity 1-vax/unvax is *efficacy* when measured during clinical
> trials. The same quantity is *effectiveness* when measured after vaccine
> deployment. A distinction which must be useful in some discussions.
>
> -- rec --
>
> On Wed, Aug 18, 2021 at 11:21 PM Frank Wimberly <wimberly3 at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
>> Simpson's example: in a high school class females get higher grades in
>> their classes but males get higher scores on the SAT. For both genders SAT
>> scores and grades are positively correlated but in the whole class they are
>> negatively correlated.
>>
>> ---
>> Frank C. Wimberly
>> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
>> Santa Fe, NM 87505
>>
>> 505 670-9918
>> Santa Fe, NM
>>
>> On Wed, Aug 18, 2021, 9:05 PM David Eric Smith <desmith at santafe.edu>
>> wrote:
>>
>>> Indeed, Roger,
>>>
>>> Spirit of fun in the original already very clear.
>>>
>>> Why I get some sort of pleasure, when there is already a perfectly good
>>> reductio ad absurdum, in looking for ways to change its appearance of
>>> tautology, I do not understand. Fortunately _that_ is not an important
>>> question.
>>>
>>> Eric
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> On Aug 19, 2021, at 11:50 AM, Roger Critchlow <rec at elf.org> wrote:
>>>
>>> Eric -
>>>
>>> No problem with the modification, I was just making noise at that
>>> point: death panels, statistical police, knowledge is oppression, and so
>>> on.
>>>
>>> I see, Morris did exactly what you were suggesting and then went on to
>>> itemize every quibble that might come up in the conclusion.
>>>
>>> I might even remember Simpson's Paradox after this, at least for a few
>>> days.
>>>
>>> -- rec --
>>>
>>> -- rec --
>>>
>>> On Wed, Aug 18, 2021 at 8:27 PM Frank Wimberly <wimberly3 at gmail.com>
>>> wrote:
>>>
>>>> So that's why I'm feeling uneasy as I approach 80. 😐
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> ---
>>>> Frank C. Wimberly
>>>> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
>>>> Santa Fe, NM 87505
>>>>
>>>> 505 670-9918
>>>> Santa Fe, NM
>>>>
>>>> On Wed, Aug 18, 2021, 5:38 PM David Eric Smith <desmith at santafe.edu>
>>>> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> May I offer a tiny rewording to one of your sentences, Roger?
>>>>>
>>>>> Given that right now I am in a months-long redraft of a paper, which
>>>>> feels like having my teeth drilled, trying to say some things about the
>>>>> difference between what one can do with summary statistics and what one
>>>>> does with population-wide regressions. I am in a situation where I can’t
>>>>> use terms (this community doesn’t use them), can’t cite to where they are
>>>>> explained (not their literature; they will not go follow a cite), and can’t
>>>>> explain them in-line (too long; people don’t want to read all that).
>>>>> Complain complain complain.
>>>>>
>>>>> Interesting thing is that the particular “data” we are getting are, of
>>>>> course, summary statistics. So:
>>>>>
>>>>> You said:
>>>>>
>>>>> Next the statistics police will be telling us how to use the data!
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> How about:
>>>>>
>>>>> Next the statistics police will be telling us how to use the
>>>>> statistics!
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> Eric
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> On Aug 19, 2021, at 7:00 AM, Roger Critchlow <rec at elf.org> wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>> The Israeli data turned up in Andrew Gelman's blog today
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2021/08/18/coronavirus-and-simpsons-paradox-oldsters-are-more-likely-to-be-vaccinated-and-more-likely-to-have-severe-infections-so-you-need-to-adjust-for-age-when-comparing-vaccinated-and-unvaccinated-peopl/
>>>>>
>>>>> The argument broken out in his correspondent's blog:
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/israeli-data-how-can-efficacy-vs-severe-disease-be-strong-when-60-of-hospitalized-are-vaccinated
>>>>> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.covid-datascience.com%2fpost%2fisraeli-data-how-can-efficacy-vs-severe-disease-be-strong-when-60-of-hospitalized-are-vaccinated&c=E,1,r88QWsw9ZFie03L99WBI-GfoUio7QJL9q0f6LgfquHy6yusuS3afGu9rl-P2qKIe3neZBMCmbb-dV2vLzn84I9vqbj9PkeulwJ9dRSdlThEZ27Vn6yCOrCAc&typo=1>
>>>>>
>>>>> Next the statistics police will be telling us how to use the data!
>>>>>
>>>>> Oh, and someone noticed that a lot of the unvaccinated can't afford to
>>>>> take two days off for vaccination side effects, no medical leave, you could
>>>>> try offering her 2 days and a few hours pay to get vaccinated.
>>>>>
>>>>> -- rec --
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> On Wed, Aug 18, 2021 at 4:58 PM Marcus Daniels <marcus at snoutfarm.com>
>>>>> wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>> Another hypothesis is that they tend to be less engaged in the
>>>>>> economy and their communities and so are thus less susceptible; smaller
>>>>>> social networks and lower spatial density. And further they attach
>>>>>> themselves to these crazy ideas because no one ever has the opportunity to
>>>>>> push back except people that go way out of their way like Glen.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> -----Original Message-----
>>>>>> From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> On Behalf Of David Eric Smith
>>>>>> Sent: Wednesday, August 18, 2021 1:09 PM
>>>>>> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
>>>>>> friam at redfish.com>
>>>>>> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] vax v unvax
>>>>>>
>>>>>> This is one that it would be nice to see broken down by age and other
>>>>>> conditions.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> If unvaxxed hospitalizations are a true “cross section of America”
>>>>>> (like jury duty), whereas the vaxxed ones are mainly old or sick with
>>>>>> something else, that would be an important variable for deriving a risk
>>>>>> profile by category.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Time, time, time, to chase things down….
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Eric
>>>>>>
>>>>>> > On Aug 19, 2021, at 4:53 AM, uǝlƃ ☤>$ <gepropella at gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>>> >
>>>>>> >
>>>>>> > Soooo ... our house cleaner is anti-vax. My friends tell me we
>>>>>> should fire her. I've resisted confronting her over it. But hospitals being
>>>>>> overrun influenced me to press her a little bit. I claimed that the
>>>>>> majority of hospitalizations are the unvaxxed. She claimed that down near
>>>>>> her (I think closer to Centralia, WA), it was flipped, that the majority of
>>>>>> hospitalizations were vaccinated. We had the usual conversation where she
>>>>>> ended with "you believe your data and I believe my data" blather. So I
>>>>>> decided to see if I could find news articles claiming the majority of
>>>>>> hospitalized covid cases are the vaccinated. And I found this:
>>>>>> >
>>>>>> > Higher Death, Hospitalization Rates Among Vaccinated Individuals:
>>>>>> UK
>>>>>> > COVID-19 Data
>>>>>> >
>>>>>> https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.visiontimes.co
>>>>>> >
>>>>>> m%2f2021%2f07%2f04%2fdeaths-hospital-vaccinated-uk.html&c=E,1,S5wT7eG_
>>>>>> >
>>>>>> LxnTLuUE1RbuVEziaTP99eeGAnZxv_dtTYhpTiIkicxQt2mvokLXVbixkXhDcXvoLjNg1n
>>>>>> > GUqSLe66RnTqmVs_5EGMgv3Z6cPUYQEg,,&typo=1
>>>>>> >
>>>>>> > Most COVID-19 Patients at Israel Hospital Fully Vaccinated, Doctor
>>>>>> Calls Mandates ‘Diabolic’
>>>>>> >
>>>>>> https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.visiontimes.co
>>>>>> >
>>>>>> m%2f2021%2f08%2f08%2fisrael-hospital-vaccinated.html&c=E,1,FDPrPMNiU5e
>>>>>> >
>>>>>> 621cpzQhoViPiTlcpkww8iHTLVFR9vwhMrJ_5m1j77NIXnZYqEweYmhJcGmbR5PUWpuOvQ
>>>>>> > F1ZPV23_7Fw9AKvzzPGnjmS-w,,&typo=1
>>>>>> >
>>>>>> > They're both from the "Vision Times", which looks to me like a
>>>>>> Falun Gong outlet, popular with Trumpists, anti-CCP, etc. So, I don't
>>>>>> really want to do any debunking or verification. I *want* to write it off
>>>>>> as garbage. But their source:
>>>>>> https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fassets.publishing.service.gov.uk%2fgovernment%2fuploads%2fsystem%2fuploads%2fattachment_data%2ffile%2f1001359%2fVariants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_16.pdf&c=E,1,Z0AX7_CvU6zmg1ca9s0IY3_E3dshyhV2o2XdB9IZiLRuF4FqVWdK_4ijYuyJIk-wyRPEoaaRJUlchbHLmor1XP3Y-0_ioCec73m-PpoXtafAhLUS702P8MUqhA,,&typo=1
>>>>>> seems legit. And the numbers in the article seem to match Table 4.
>>>>>> >
>>>>>> > Plugging in the numbers from the latest briefing:
>>>>>> >
>>>>>> https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars
>>>>>> > -cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
>>>>>> >
>>>>>> > It really does seem to show that the death rate among vaxxed is
>>>>>> higher than that among unvaxxed.
>>>>>> >
>>>>>> > The LifeSiteNews site is obviously troll nonsense. But my concern
>>>>>> is mostly about that tech report from the UK and Herzog Hospital. Are these
>>>>>> counter examples to the NYT unvax/vax data? Are they small enough to be
>>>>>> within error?
>>>>>> >
>>>>>> > --
>>>>>> > ☤>$ uǝlƃ
>>>>>> >
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