[FRIAM] FW: Covid-Lancet-PART-2 (002).doc

Thu May 6 18:38:03 EDT 2021

Pieter, there is a good conversation to have here, but these bastards who seem committed to doing _everything_ in bad faith irritate me to the point where I spend time writing FRIAM posts instead of doing anything that will _ever_ benefit anyone or accomplish anything.  

Yes, the mRNA platform is great, and should be a geme-changer.  Let’s pursue that topic.  I’m fully with you on that.

And?

Oh, human challenge trials are an “innovative technique”.  They also explicitly violate the Hippocratic oath.  Do we fail to do them for no particular reason, or has someone thought about whether the Hippocratic oath is an important consideration?  Dunno, hmmmm.  How would one decide?

Oh, public health people admonished Americans away from buying medical masks early on.  Clearly just because those bureaucrats are so dead set against efficiency.  We haven’t had that conversation ad nauseam on this channel already?   We know why they did it; they are communicating to Americans, which is like communicating to a troupe of Tasmanian devils surrounding a roadkill.  They know their words have consequences, and they feel the weight of that responsibility.  Then, sometimes they also make mistakes.  Do we criticize to correct, or exploit to destroy?

And, just by the bye of things not mentioned.  Let’s do a ballpark of what the best-case scenario might have been with very proactive response and people really trying to work together, like maybe some events in US society in WWII.  Instead of having spent maybe USD5Tn by the end of the trump term, with — what was it at the time — something like 450k people dead, I could imagine that with a scaled-up S. Korea like response, the economic support could have been maybe USD 1Tn to 1.5Tn to achieve a similar backstop, and maybe 100k people dead.  That would have been _really hard_ to pull off, but it is the kind of hard that good countries aspire to and sometimes achieve. And the fact that _all_ that didn’t happen is clearly to the fault of some public health people who didn’t know early how much transmission was fomites and how much respiratory droplets?  Or trying to redirect masks to hospitals?  The public health people were _against_ testing?  I believe that last claim is flatly false, and overwhelmingly documented to be so.  There was nothing else going on at the time?  Hmm, can’t recall.  Or since?  Or still, even worse?  How would one tell?  And Americans have a great record of really being supportive of each other, and using great reasoning based on all the best evidence, but were just thwarted again and again by the public health officials and agencies?  

And the vaccines were developed so rapidly, this time only because the agencies removed obstacles that they could have removed any time.  Well, for the adenovirus vaccines (a largely established technology)  there is a claim to that effect that can be made fairly.  But of course the article puts up the mRNA vaccines as evidence of how, because the agencies got out of the way (is implied), BioNTech and Moderna had vaccines in a few days.  That is deliberate BS, and I doubt the writer is such an idiot that he doesn’t know it.  (cf. the very useful article in NYT a couple of weeks ago on Kariko and a little about the history of mRNA update and expression research.)  They were done in a few days because of 30 years of work, much of it publicly funded, that was waiting in the wings, and had been postponed earlier, and only pushed through now, only because there hadn’t been a disease structure that enabled the (non-human-challenge) trial at a price the companies were willing to pay.  The disinformation on that simple matter of fact has been wonderfully employed by those who will now ensure that we have an endemic, no longer just a pandemic.

And now there is a fight on about suspending patent limits on vaccine production to open to more operators, and the companies argue that it wouldn’t make any difference because it is current capacity saturation that limits us (Jon’s DW news articles yesterday, which the Canadians say is false even now), deliberately bypassing the obvious intent of the suspension that capacity can be built by more actors in parallel, going forward from now.  The company objection is that it would not be capacity _they own_, cf my rant from yesterday.  But sure, now that the technology _exists_, clearly everyone will be fine.  I find that foreshortening of the conversation harmful, because it is again anti-empirical.  We are not distributing the technology we have well enough to evade an endemic — the needed and productive conversation is in large part WHY that is occurring, and what we want to change.  These guys will tie themselves in any knot to distract from a real version of that discussion.

So I don’t object to all the good points you raise about mRNA vaccines and their potential.  I feel obliged to notice, however, the specific strategy by this klatch of writers, of using the techno-points to obstruct the conversation about human cooperation, which is immediately actionable, and responsible for a large part of the shortfall.  Because the empirical discussion is in large part a discussion about the restraint of POWER.  They live to prevent that discussion, and they will take us all down with them if they succeed.

There is a thing we do, that they exploit.  If they include a few statements that aren’t false in an overall framework that is deliberately distorted, we all bend over backward to grant them standing because a few things they say overlap with the truth.  Maybe at first, a little.  But conversations have a pragmatics and it is relevant.

So, onward…

Eric

> On May 7, 2021, at 6:02 AM, Pieter Steenekamp <pieters at randcontrols.co.za> wrote:
> 
> I know I run the risk of responses like "it's Pollyanna, oh sorry I mean Pieter, again", but I'll take the risk and share the link with the speculation about technological progress with mRNA vaccines that will end pandemics like covid.
> https://reason.com/video/2021/05/06/why-covid-19-may-be-the-last-pandemic/ <https://reason.com/video/2021/05/06/why-covid-19-may-be-the-last-pandemic/> 
> 
> On Thu, 6 May 2021 at 22:34, <thompnickson2 at gmail.com <mailto:thompnickson2 at gmail.com>> wrote:
> Thanks, Peiter,
> 
>  
> 
> At 83, we are fully vaccinated, and although we have changed our behavior very little, we breath easier.  You have that to look forward to.
> 
>  
> 
> Nic
> 
>  
> 
> Nick Thompson
> 
> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com <mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwordpress.clarku.edu%2fnthompson%2f&c=E,1,LzzALi0u8gDIlgQ7gbMlaNo6sh98MHQpgNNaY2jqiyEZCc6gI_PHTmNAQSewV9mrY6EyStoO5ulZJnzgr4LOkJ3HWyGTPqWdLn7QRxhANtfp76TsyniLtaILg-o,&typo=1>
>  
> 
> From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com <mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com>> On Behalf Of Pieter Steenekamp
> Sent: Thursday, May 6, 2021 2:24 PM
> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam at redfish.com <mailto:friam at redfish.com>>
> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] FW: Covid-Lancet-PART-2 (002).doc
> 
>  
> 
>  is it true that the matter simply stands with the Hah-vud studies retracted, and nothing more said?  That doesn’t seem right.
> 
>  
> 
> I just don't know.
> 
> I speculated that the topic was just way too politicized to get to the bottom of it without spending serious time and effort on it and I chose not to do that. 
> 
> On a personal note, we don't yet have vaccinations in South Africa, my wife and I are each having daily doses of Quercetin, a natural over-the-counter version of  Hydroxychloroquine, and vitamin D and Zinc and a couple of other immune boosters too.   
> 
> 
>  
> 
> On Thu, 6 May 2021 at 21:46, <thompnickson2 at gmail.com <mailto:thompnickson2 at gmail.com>> wrote:
> 
> Thanks, Pieter,
> 
>  
> 
> Interesting.  As somebody who has followed the research, is it true that the matter simply stands with the Hah-vud studies retracted, and nothing more said?  That doesn’t seem right.
> 
>  
> 
> Nick
> 
>  
> 
> Nick Thompson
> 
> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com <mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwordpress.clarku.edu%2fnthompson%2f&c=E,1,6d7TP_vqDWcjrW5F3OlIgvw2YJNC0S5wasTA7C8vZD5E930imzlrZB3382JfTvmH4-dN0qR7aG1NwTbNibwKT6YGVlklhlvlHfothNpu7aX5&typo=1>
>  
> 
> From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com <mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com>> On Behalf Of Pieter Steenekamp
> Sent: Thursday, May 6, 2021 1:12 PM
> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam at redfish.com <mailto:friam at redfish.com>>
> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] FW: Covid-Lancet-PART-2 (002).doc
> 
>  
> 
> I'm not particularly fond of Donald Trump, but the elephant in the room is that  Hydroxychloroquine became well-known after Trump advocated it. At the time I followed and researched it a bit and I came to the conclusion that both the mainstream media and the medical industry were against  Hydroxychloroquine mainly because Trump actively advocated it. The Lancet saga certainly did not influence me to change that conclusion.
> 
>  
> 
> On Thu, 6 May 2021 at 19:52, Frank Wimberly <wimberly3 at gmail.com <mailto:wimberly3 at gmail.com>> wrote:
> 
> This does not seem interesting to me.  The vaccines have been demonstrated to be effective and safe to very large degrees based on many millions of inoculations.  Why should I care about some suspect studies with small n.
> 
> ---
> Frank C. Wimberly
> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, 
> Santa Fe, NM 87505
> 
> 505 670-9918
> Santa Fe, NM
> 
>  
> 
> On Thu, May 6, 2021, 11:33 AM <thompnickson2 at gmail.com <mailto:thompnickson2 at gmail.com>> wrote:
> 
> Dear Phellow Phriammers,
> 
>  
> 
> I have noted that most of what I have written here of late has been ignored, and that’s ok, actually.  Usually, it is the possibility that you MIGHT read what I write that keeps me writing and, behaviorist to the last, writing is what I need to do in order to think. 
> 
>  
> 
> But this situation is different.  I really don’t know what to think about Pavlovic’s <https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Dragan-Pavlovic-4> paper.  There may have been some trouble with the cloud version, so I have attached it to this message.
> 
>  
> 
> So, this is a case where I really need some help.  I realize that you are all engaged in this excellent correspondence about UBI, which has revealed all sorts of “-ists” that I never thought were alive and well in the world, let alone in this group.  I would not interfere with that for a second.  But, could a few of you take a look at his paper <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2f1drv.ms%2fw%2fs%21AptIKbsAd7gjllccpq9yXXQ4hb2N%3fe%3dHCzjaV&c=E,1,9pBJ0Tcyusk3WTspTcCPtcePMH1x44umboUxMOanfywVcMnUUVrRQaUC1fhHnX5ymWOwJjp6fcSwtYTOFeQE5EnxE1nBkmyr2Aqx9_zIAJrDVH4j&typo=1>  (very short, a commentary, actually).  I think he is actually a candidate for this group.  He is an MD, Phd, anaesthesiologist, retired in Paris, who has participated in hundreds of scientific papers,  who is passionate ( I worry, perhaps sometimes a bit too passionate) about dozens of different things and suspicious of everything. He wants, for instance, to dig a gigantic tunnel to bring large ships directly from the danube to the Mediterranean.   
> 
>  
> 
> I, of course, live in a bubble, but I don’t like to have that fact thrust in my face as powerfully as when he reveals to me that the two HAAA=VUD papers denouncing Chloquoroquine were retracted a year ago, and I never found out.  I can’t get any sense of whether there has been any attempt to revive them or to redo the original clinical study that suggested HCQ’s efficacy against CoVid.   
> 
>  
> 
> Any little bit of help you could give me would be great.
> 
>  
> 
> Nick
> 
>  
> 
> Nick Thompson
> 
> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com <mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwordpress.clarku.edu%2fnthompson%2f&c=E,1,fYzwtIGJ5fIZJ0U2dKOGaQ_WxgECX8hff0Ju77X9ZBymZx5b3bU11YJQPGvQCpG7f9WGJu1owy66m72FfekHBjxwJYgVgrAbnSb2TyIC8w,,&typo=1>
>  
> 
> From: thompnickson2 at gmail.com <mailto:thompnickson2 at gmail.com> <thompnickson2 at gmail.com <mailto:thompnickson2 at gmail.com>> 
> Sent: Wednesday, May 5, 2021 9:48 PM
> To: 'The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group' <friam at redfish.com <mailto:friam at redfish.com>>
> Cc: 'Prof David West' <profwest at fastmail.fm <mailto:profwest at fastmail.fm>>
> Subject: Covid-Lancet-PART-2 (002).doc
> 
>  
> 
> Dear Colleagues,
> 
>  
> 
> I attach a paper <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2f1drv.ms%2fw%2fs%21AptIKbsAd7gjllccpq9yXXQ4hb2N%3fe%3dHCzjaV&c=E,1,65mfIP4xq3ylK4e1j_0zh0Xx8HIgV3jPa5Inr7iZ51LXrhwv8zmFvbT4lHv37Iuqd_HMevx93FdqF_dKau40BEUjFO_Ed733InU1bkHywA,,&typo=1> written by an internet acquaintance I made some years back, Dragan Pavlovic.  I am sending it along for two reasons.  First, it reveals (to me, at least) that the two negative studies on Hydroxychloroquine use in SARS-CoVid-19 treatment were based on unverified data and were withdrawn by their authors almost immediately.  (Have the rest of you known this for the last year and not told me?  I cannot believe, after we pilloried poor Dave for advocating for it, that he has not gloated about it. ) Second, Pavlovic raises the intension/extension distinction in the context of the interpretation of scientific results and also questions Randomized Control Trials as the "Gold Standard" for discovery. Thus, I think he is a kindred spirit, being a bit of a grumpy contrarian like many of us here.  I have promised to forward any comments you make to him, so be polite but speak truth.   
> 
>  
> 
> Thanks,
> 
>  
> 
> Nick Nicholas Thompson
> 
> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
> 
> Clark University
> 
> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com <mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwordpress.clarku.edu%2fnthompson%2f&c=E,1,zaJU3TmpZ2KCs9qAgL-GSP2XsZXvKYFKUv7N7RPH0FXYX1jwVjLyN8dV9GkW5cTFHqY3nCGunX203UbUH7uAJy9Og2BzjEjjqFa2_5wAR0yZE75tLQ,,&typo=1>
>  
> 
>  
> 
>  
> 
>  
> 
>  
> 
>  
> 
> - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. .
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fbit.ly%2fvirtualfriam&c=E,1,Jv4so-y4eEE8GUyNrzsspvoil3Z9maVxILBVznK85qGg30uWkh2Vuvl84J82BGhh0srUnMHrb_kB7ZQQEIqNhdsBNest9JQ1AgkkVpAEfAI,&typo=1>
> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fmailman%2flistinfo%2ffriam_redfish.com&c=E,1,2KdwgbIkFQZfgFLqpQJI7ffllgnlYRo5bzI5eBbxP0598l4hjjpEgwBBojoOncALZGv5Ob6HezDxEvr00esVwyUfpzMf8ZUGDgnxA8j1YvgHhw,,&typo=1>
> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2ffriam-comic.blogspot.com%2f&c=E,1,wxrufh1iEmr1eDHdPdduYzkOp30tmJEkWIVRlmUs-7SsFlDSpOnARrkK68OLtoNLEBmcibGwB65YjSx99dP84_DK7a4WN_kP0DgkLysZPY5a3RnvLAQw&typo=1>
> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ <http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/>
> - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. .
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fbit.ly%2fvirtualfriam&c=E,1,82m632UVX6jgk7sEtQqPEdyQTUKw7WEllr78Y6M3pOJGgL59JBpCyN-2KG6JT_xBE0S_vjrms41WcI7illSkFWGFLklgmkFQV27Lm7lzLYmqdoDd&typo=1>
> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fmailman%2flistinfo%2ffriam_redfish.com&c=E,1,HNSKAQo98-tZtSm0mDoPEa2uGL4C1anQRTDituw7AL4ReVMpWgvPjCwjNPFQii3B60muB9Mvr8gPb6jGwRyCNyaoD_HgTnSygbr45Bewn5pcgZ6alDm3SFiT3Y_e&typo=1>
> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2ffriam-comic.blogspot.com%2f&c=E,1,lIzESPMi-5V0E0c8pWxwoRzNlfY8jiUFTqmyrBh8l2I0P16kgEtJOmh5Jz5QyzC1-2s4MuD-6wiC0tn0Te9V_Re8Drz7sVaR2Jtvbkn5zUthenfgPA,,&typo=1>
> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ <http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/>
> - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. .
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fbit.ly%2fvirtualfriam&c=E,1,cfhJj9XEe3uJxKZgCQQnSEeuoib4xTXZOAqEq3DiBzZploeeyFG1uxOSXCNSVWbrw5HAuMYesk6T0sjLJP-qNdOu4vMCwJnZ559vqjxX2JNnIf_rBnaRMsU,&typo=1>
> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fmailman%2flistinfo%2ffriam_redfish.com&c=E,1,llgo3jXgiVYlk0u5QukX7v0rH82VI9QUUJfV1yEcvOM7TpaN5wb9EV2vzt6mA5K4aG7vQaLoL64WQtWt4N0x_d7kGgO8lrNw4h26EkdNU4tuq64,&typo=1>
> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2ffriam-comic.blogspot.com%2f&c=E,1,yq1s2xJu70TxZc38s2s2yj2fs40RpkBcUhw7Fs_4lDo1Jw0xIlzHR87TKYozycjCDeAShcFDjKkf-SxnwAInm16lk7OTKneZnh7ZG65sK5UBKcA,&typo=1>
> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ <http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/>- .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. .
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fbit.ly%2fvirtualfriam&c=E,1,H1sFP-9TDB99mLji38kkxQMK8DkYJ2w7odJqTe3ErOjbyq0W5d8bgzqbyNCVK-5ivJXg21NPsRK8sar9njn86d-CVNJxqb4qa-lSI0JJTTsLjrnZ88P1&typo=1>
> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fmailman%2flistinfo%2ffriam_redfish.com&c=E,1,8lmcOuVcXq1597kDy-4qhzwu44hRIsJHbBGs-2GZzhChjUa3qjo-0O3oL7vO2pg3V4YmFQyh4h9QnfCfSJV12R8IiGNw_oqXW_xzzOD7&typo=1>
> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2ffriam-comic.blogspot.com%2f&c=E,1,cl2qqyvRuteKrm-nLBLoIeTv4oqB2Uv7h7Hb98IuG69O8gDgmRh9hk2piAq2BcimP0Q0jujTA7Asc2_F63E3MyOAY4dXWF2aY02BaCFe0NY0KfM,&typo=1>
> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ <http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/>
> - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. .
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam
> un/subscribe https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fmailman%2flistinfo%2ffriam_redfish.com&c=E,1,4HxuGEjhtA9zeWaVGkHJL3OxkDrtwT_tZMiYOtIEwdnVfAk_OXxvVtWVIXG6JcIWWovlzIyVt19H_CydLD1cA1mYEkiAHjL3QPM9I6VlJhIE3GQk5YnVae5zH3o,&typo=1
> FRIAM-COMIC https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2ffriam-comic.blogspot.com%2f&c=E,1,sbL4b7qP7Kh-p9KJ7qEikJ0HyfnfFi_gkTlZ-FYZoGHDGBP87aMPd5BUe08Hg9aJ7Jj1WvzSUb1nitrFB7KBb0CtZ_y83XZu1mO-xG5Y7ky9&typo=1
> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/attachments/20210507/88182616/attachment-0001.html>