[FRIAM] Has anybody been lookiung at covid numbers

[Eric Charles]

I haven't looked up Santa Fe's numbers specifically... but if it is
anything like national numbers, the difference is that last year we were in
the early stages of a massive uptick, and this year we are in the middle of
a rapid fall off (with the recent cold snaps having no noticeable effect).
If you look at the graph below, you will see an upswing starting October
18th of last year which peaked January 14th, and by Nov 20th it was
already 950 a day above where  it started. In contrast, this year we are
down over 950 a day from the peak on Sept 24th.

A winter spike could still happen, but we are over a month out from where
it started last year, but I don't think it is going to. If the current
trend continues, we'll be at a negligible number of deaths per day within
about 2 months. I think that's overly optimistic, but 3-4 months is
probably very realistic (barring a new variant), even if we allow for a
modest post-holiday uptick.

How that should play into any particular person's particular plans, I can't
say. Even in the unrealistically-optimistic 2-month scenario, that's still
30,000 more deaths. More than double that for the more realistic 4 month
scenario.


[image: image.png]
<echarles at american.edu>


On Sat, Nov 20, 2021 at 12:37 AM <thompnickson2 at gmail.com> wrote:

> Good to hear from you, Jackie.  A fresh voice on the list.  Always
> welcome.  Sometimes we regulars bore ourselves to death.
>
>
>
> We decided not to meet with the extended family in Houston, a hard
> decision that I instantly stopped regretting when I saw the new numbers.
> The only question in my mind is whether we avoid my son’s family for a week
> or two when they return.   People keep telling me about vaccinated people
> they know who have croaked and I am definitely in the vulnerable group …
> age, diabetes, heart disease --.   There are some folks on this list who
> are very good at numbers and have vulnerabilities of their own.  I am
> guessing we will hear from them in time.  I am guessing that unless I am
> planning to stay in my house for the rest of my life, I should probably not
> worry about it too much.
>
>
>
> Thanks for your message.  Don’t be a stranger.
>
>
>
>
>
> Nick Thompson
>
> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
>
>
> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> *On Behalf Of *Jacqueline Kazil
> *Sent:* Friday, November 19, 2021 11:10 PM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
> friam at redfish.com>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Has anybody been lookiung at covid numbers
>
>
>
> Hi! Jackie here. Nick, I too can get hysterical about Covid. I left DC for
> Missouri and lived on a dead-end street in the country with my in-laws for
> almost a year sharing a bedroom with my three year old and newborn. Then my
> mom was in an intensive care situation after an accident - for 52 days.
> This was in Florida during the summer surge -- at one point covid
> positivity rate was > 25% in the county she was in.  I couldn't leave
> Florida, because my baby's daycare in DC has a covid policy that you had to
> quarantine if your house was exposed to a covid positivity rate of >10% &
> my moms hospital had a policy that said you had to quarantine if you leave
> the state of Florida, you had a to quarantine (I didn't understand this
> one. This was a policy for the sake of having a policy. All other states
> were better places to be). With these two policies in play, despite not
> seeing my children for more than a month and having to quit breastfeeding,
> I decided not to travel home... and sometimes life sucks. [As I write this,
> I feel like this is a simulation in the works.]
>
>
>
> In Florida during the time with my mom, I was pushed outside of my comfort
> zone. I was in an environment where a lot of the population feels
> differently than I do about safety. I also was walking into hospitals with
> covid patients where vaccinated nurses were dropping like flies. I gave up
> a little, because of the stress I only had so much energy to worry about
> covid. A friend even convinced me to eat in a restaurant indoors -- barely,
> once.
>
>
> I just looked up Santa Fe county, and it is just over 10% covid positivity
> rate.
>
> https://covidactnow.org/us/new_mexico-nm/county/santa_fe_county/?s=25691480
>
> Covid positivity rate is supposed to be a signal of knowledge spreading. I
> would say over 10% right before Thanksgiving is probably a not a good place
> to be. This means it is spreading and people know, but some don't. With
> families getting together -- the "some don't" part is not good.
>
>
>
> With my experience of being in various environments, I would say that if I
> were in a place with a rate of 10% or higher, I would worry enough to
> batten down the hatches for the holidays, because... sometimes life sucks.
> I would limit the number of people I interacted with.
>
>
>
> Also to consider in this equation -- how many people already had covid
> that already counted in the vaccine numbers.
>
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