[FRIAM] the end of the pandemic

Sun Sep 12 16:28:26 EDT 2021

Pollyanna!      (ironic)

---
Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
Santa Fe, NM 87505

505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM

On Sat, May 16, 2020, 10:32 AM Marcus Daniels <marcus at snoutfarm.com> wrote:

> Here’s what I expect will probably happen.   The PANDEMIC will be declared
> over, like Mission Accomplished with W.   There will be a slower burn until
> fall, and then it will accelerate again.   But people will be acclimate to
> the death rate, like they acclimate to gun violence.    Unemployment and
> homelessness will soar and be persistent.   Suicides will go up, and be
> normalized.   Meanwhile, people with the means will self-isolate and be the
> first to get access to antiviral treatments.  Out in the blood and muck,
> herd immunity will begin to emerge in at risk populations.   The U.S. will
> continue to have high prevalence compared to other countries. History will
> look back on this as a Chernobyl moment, where the prestige of the United
> States fell to Asia.   And a second term of Trump will ensure it.
>
>
>
> *From: *Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> on behalf of Prof David West <
> profwest at fastmail.fm>
> *Reply-To: *The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
> friam at redfish.com>
> *Date: *Saturday, May 16, 2020 at 8:25 AM
> *To: *"friam at redfish.com" <friam at redfish.com>
> *Subject: *Re: [FRIAM] the end of the pandemic
>
>
>
> Steve,
>
>
>
> Yes the subject line is click-bait. In the body of the message I made a
> distinction between the disease pandemic and the perceived PANDEMIC. The
> latter will go away whether or not the disease does.
>
>
>
> The metrics for the latter would include increased traffic to websites
> like the Mathematica Individual COVID Risk calculator and less to WHO, CDC,
> and other overall statistical sites; a noticeable shift from personal
> interest stories about succuming to COVID to ones about succumbing to
> economic hardship; gaming floors in Las Vegas casinos opening with lots of
> assurance that gamblers are at no greater risk than when visiting a grocery
> store; stories about death rates moving from the front page to the second
> page or section; significant increase in lawsuits against restrictions with
> quick, probably out of court, capitulation by governor's; and the central
> theme of stories about the pandemic, what the science tells, us,
> whistleblowers, etc will be almost purely political in nature.
>
>
>
> Going beyond mid-June, I would predict that you will see "wave crests" in
> terms of cases and deaths, but not "spikes." They will be big enough for
> the "experts" to claim they are right, but not big enough to trigger any
> socio-economic response and most people will regard any reporting of same
> with cynicism. Any attempt to reimpose lock-downs would likely result in
> furious resistance and widespread civil disobedience.
>
>
>
> davew
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> On Tue, May 12, 2020, at 7:13 PM, Steven A Smith wrote:
>
> Dave -
>
> The COVID-19 pandemic will end, at least in the US, by mid-June, 2020.
>
> Ignoring the "bait" that I (and others) took earlier, I'll try to respond
> to the singular prediction above:
>
>
>
> What means "end"?   What is a specific statistic that you believe to
> indicate that the pandemic has ended?
>
> From Wikipedia:
>
> A *pandemic* (from Greek <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ancient_Greek>
>  πᾶν, *pan*, "all" and δῆμος, *demos*, "people") is an epidemic
> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic> of disease
> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disease> that has spread across a large
> region, for instance multiple continents
> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Continents> or worldwide, affecting a
> substantial number of people. A widespread endemic
> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endemic_(epidemiology)> disease with a
> stable number of infected people is not a pandemic. Widespread endemic
> diseases with a stable number of infected people such as recurrences of seasonal
> influenza <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seasonal_influenza> are
> generally excluded as they occur simultaneously in large regions of the
> globe rather than being spread worldwide.
>
> The WHO published THIS description of phases of a pandemic:
>
> https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK143061/
>
> [image: Image removed by sender.]
>
> *In the **post-pandemic** period, influenza disease activity will have
> returned to levels normally seen for seasonal influenza. It is expected
> that the pandemic virus will behave as a seasonal influenza A virus. At
> this stage, it is important to maintain surveillance and update pandemic
> preparedness and response plans accordingly. An intensive phase of recovery
> and evaluation may be required.*
>
>
>
> Or maybe some other (measurable) definition?
>
> - Steve
>
>
>
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