[FRIAM] Roger Mcnamee !!??

Mon Jan 10 19:23:54 EST 2022

Did you say that you've seen "Don't Look Up"?

---
Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
Santa Fe, NM 87505

505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM

On Mon, Jan 10, 2022, 5:06 PM Marcus Daniels <marcus at snoutfarm.com> wrote:

> Frank wrote:
>
> < So it went down over 20% today.  Should have shorted it.  A lot of my
> stocks have gone up 30% more or less in the last year--like AAPL.  I wonder
> if I should sell them short or just sell them. >
>
> Oh, context of that thread was how to redistribute wealth towards those
> that are prepared to adapt to climate change.
> Shorting real estate via an inverse ETF would be one way to limit exposure
> on a long horizon.
>
> Marcus
> ------------------------------
> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> on behalf of Frank Wimberly <
> wimberly3 at gmail.com>
> *Sent:* Monday, January 10, 2022 4:50 PM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
> friam at redfish.com>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Roger Mcnamee !!??
>
> So it went down over 20% today.  Should have shorted it.  A lot of my
> stocks have gone up 30% more or less in the last year--like AAPL.  I wonder
> if I should sell them short or just sell them.  Advice?
>
> ---
> Frank C. Wimberly
> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
> Santa Fe, NM 87505
>
> 505 670-9918
> Santa Fe, NM
>
> On Mon, Jan 10, 2022, 4:42 PM Marcus Daniels <marcus at snoutfarm.com> wrote:
>
> Here's a stock that could be shorted, but golly it is doing well right now.
>
> https://www.reit.com/investing/reit-directory/rexford-industrial-realty-inc
>
> So, one imagines that an 1862-scale flood comes to LA due to some enormous
> atmospheric river, and then it finally pays.
> Ideally there'd be some inverse real estate ETF that was regional, e,g.
> Abu Dhabi, where one expects it to get bad.
>
> Marcus
> ------------------------------
> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> on behalf of David Eric Smith <
> desmith at santafe.edu>
> *Sent:* Monday, January 3, 2022 4:14 AM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
> friam at redfish.com>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Roger Mcnamee !!??
>
> This is an interesting direction.
>
> How small a minority does one have to be in, for it to count as an
> arbitrage opportunity?  In the El Farol and Minority Game abstractions, any
> minority is enough.
>
> If we think about the dichotomy in public health, or in reason vs.
> hormonal aggression, the split in the US (at least by political
> commitments) is not so far from 50/50.  But as far as “profiting from the
> committed wrong”, that market seems to be cornered already by a very tiny
> percent, who have priced in much of the available surplus.  The difference
> between the dupes and the honest but powerless seems unimportant compared
> to the difference between both of those and the insiders with power,
> access, and control.  Somehow these richly structured extensive-form games
> with coalitional solution concepts seem very far from the market model in
> which we often think about arbitrage.
>
> I am also reminded of the aphorism in that other realm “The market can
> stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.”  Or in the case of
> climate, agricultural, and social instability, alive.
>
> I wonder what makes an adequate toolbox of concepts and analogies with
> which to think about this (at least somewhat) systematically.
>
> Eric
>
>
> On Jan 2, 2022, at 2:58 PM, Marcus Daniels <marcus at snoutfarm.com> wrote:
>
> Nick writes:
>
> < So, what does a healthy 2040 community look like.   What are we working
> TOWARD, here.  Once of the things that the Mcnamee podcast highlighted for
> me was my feeling that, in a chaotic world, people like me, *planners, *are
> just out of tune with the world. >
>
> I don't think it really matters how people interact in social media or
> what they think.   What will matter is how people adapt to climate change
> and the exhaustion of food and energy, and the migrations resulting from
> climate change.  That's where the opportunities will be.   If there are
> millions of people that deny it is happening like they deny pandemics, then
> things simply must be arranged so that the natural accounting occurs.   The
> planners will look past the chaos and make their investments.. and wait.
>
> Marcus
> ------------------------------
> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> on behalf of
> thompnickson2 at gmail.com <thompnickson2 at gmail.com>
> *Sent:* Sunday, January 2, 2022 1:32 PM
> *To:* 'The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group' <
> friam at redfish.com>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Roger Mcnamee !!??
>
> So, what does a healthy 2040 community look like.   What are we working
> TOWARD, here.  Once of the things that the Mcnamee podcast highlighted for
> me was my feeling that, in a chaotic world, people like me, *planners, *are
> just out of tune with the world.
>
>
> By the way, I think “surfing the web” , as it has been used, is a terrible
> metaphor.  What most of us do is like water skiing the web.  Bouncing over
> the wake, never actually getting into the water.   Gives surfing a bad
> name.  A surfer finds the few survivable paths through an immense
> concentration of hostile forces.  Surfing is more like martial arts.  In
> fact we must begin to surf the web.   To realize the manners in which its
> hostile forces constrain us and find the few paths that allow us to master
> those forces and come out of the curl safely.  We thought it was a
> playground; now we see it’s a minefield.
>
>
> n
>
>
> Nick Thompson
> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwordpress.clarku.edu%2fnthompson%2f&c=E,1,-Fd2M0MU4wX5y1N6mhhnNrFlsG64cdcJ8jOErlxB0hvFzR4dcEnKSSt2EqX5s2fb-wPOBqSH4X2Ap1mYP24zv3_muYGYijRLpnFKTxxN3dQyGtSp1B6x&typo=1>
>
>
> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> *On Behalf Of *Marcus Daniels
> *Sent:* Sunday, January 2, 2022 2:18 PM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
> friam at redfish.com>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Roger Mcnamee !!??
>
>
> Nick writes:
>
>
> < Imagined a world in which we all worked at home, everything was on
> zoom, and everything was delivered by Amazon by drone.  I realize this is a
> reductio, but hum along with me for a few bars.  There would be no
> intermediate social landscape between the home and the distribution
> center.  No intermediate human scales.
>
>
> I can’t say immediately why this would be a bad thing, but my gut doesn’t
> like it.>
>
>
> I can't think of many examples where the intermediate scales are anything
> but wasteful or intrusive.   Maybe to see a tailor coupled to the purchase
> of certain clothes?  I still drive to services (dentist, doctor, hair
> stylist), just not to redistributors, because they don't really add
> anything.   There's still a farmer's market that seems as popular as ever
> -- but they DO offer something unique.    I can drive five minutes to Home
> Depot but honestly half the time their inventory is exhausted for what I
> want, and I end up ordering it online.
>
>
> Marcus
>
>
> ------------------------------
> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> on behalf of
> thompnickson2 at gmail.com <thompnickson2 at gmail.com>
> *Sent:* Sunday, January 2, 2022 1:03 PM
> *To:* 'The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group' <
> friam at redfish.com>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Roger Mcnamee !!??
>
>
> Marcus,
>
>
> I would like to be convinced …. But
>
>
> Imagined a world in which we all worked at home, everything was on zoom,
> and everything was delivered by Amazon by drone.  I realize this is a
> reductio, but hum along with me for a few bars.  There would be no
> intermediate social landscape between the home and the distribution
> center.  No intermediate human scales.
>
>
> I can’t say immediately why this would be a bad thing, but my gut doesn’t
> like it.
>
>
> Nick
>
>
> Nick Thompson
> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwordpress.clarku.edu%2fnthompson%2f&c=E,1,p4rsPfl7qCnkvPDXzYT5M-1fZBZKaCDIB1z2Osc-CfFDLgw598S0mD13_Sppk4ua_2uMIZVWNAECmtZ8s2kblHg2quJex4YawfboMGbRTDU_u15bu8836eLAHQ,,&typo=1>
>
>
> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> *On Behalf Of *Marcus Daniels
> *Sent:* Sunday, January 2, 2022 1:38 PM
> *To:* 'The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group' <
> friam at redfish.com>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Roger Mcnamee !!??
>
>
> I can see living without Facebook (I do), but why can't we live with
> Amazon?   It seems like they did a pretty good job of displacing the likes
> of Walmart.  It could happen again.  What added inherent value do stores
> have, other than as a mechanism to prevent he consolidation of market
> influence w.r.t. to prices?
> ------------------------------
> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> on behalf of
> thompnickson2 at gmail.com <thompnickson2 at gmail.com>
> *Sent:* Sunday, January 2, 2022 12:03 PM
> *To:* 'The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group' <
> friam at redfish.com>
> *Subject:* [FRIAM] Roger Mcnamee !!??
>
>
> I just listened to this podcast
>
>
> https://feeds.megaphone.fm/VMP5489734702
> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2ffeeds.megaphone.fm%2fVMP5489734702&c=E,1,G87ToIzgI5DT4ZpiKuXcRc2EHcS4lpVgIftU98yiNor7PFNa9lCoDMtpA2GT4_2eudXeeatF6BgR-Peqwvf8pBQOnsbOiuYBI693rGSZCjDA8-JbvEUZ&typo=1>
>
>
> a conversation between the former prosecutor, Joyce Vance, and the
> musician, financier, turncoat Facebook investor Roger Mcnamee, who likens
> this moment with big tech to the moment before the food industry
> regulations of the early 1900’s and anti-pollution legislation of the 60’s,
> moments when Da People reasserted control over over-weening industry
> interests.  He is author of the book, *Zucked*.
>
>
> An hour-long pod cast is a terribly inefficient way to learn about
> something, so I hope that one you, for whom none of this is news, can offer
> a more condensed source.
>
>
> We are basically talking about the Amazon paradox, here: can’t live with
> it; can’t live without it.  How much ARE we willing to pay to have the
> trains run on time?
>
>
> As usual, I am in need of instruction.
>
>
> Nick Thompson
> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwordpress.clarku.edu%2fnthompson%2f&c=E,1,AekdfP2MBl31iUxGjknOMPY6CLKTWZ0Uy_4dTUwGKgNke6kg7BN0qwu3VC8xzay12y6vtDYGszhL0ussBgpgtjOzZjJu9AWkUutwzgaFOibLSYQ0DDICSZg,&typo=1>
>
>
>
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