[FRIAM] Roger Mcnamee !!??
Steve Smith
sasmyth at swcp.com
Mon Jan 10 20:28:05 EST 2022
I say "buy low and sell high"...
On 1/10/22 4:50 PM, Frank Wimberly wrote:
> So it went down over 20% today. Should have shorted it. A lot of my
> stocks have gone up 30% more or less in the last year--like AAPL. I
> wonder if I should sell them short or just sell them. Advice?
>
> ---
> Frank C. Wimberly
> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
> Santa Fe, NM 87505
>
> 505 670-9918
> Santa Fe, NM
>
> On Mon, Jan 10, 2022, 4:42 PM Marcus Daniels <marcus at snoutfarm.com> wrote:
>
> Here's a stock that could be shorted, but golly it is doing well
> right now.
>
> https://www.reit.com/investing/reit-directory/rexford-industrial-realty-inc
>
> So, one imagines that an 1862-scale flood comes to LA due to some
> enormous atmospheric river, and then it finally pays.
> Ideally there'd be some inverse real estate ETF that was regional,
> e,g. Abu Dhabi, where one expects it to get bad.
>
> Marcus
> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
> *From:* Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> on behalf of David Eric
> Smith <desmith at santafe.edu>
> *Sent:* Monday, January 3, 2022 4:14 AM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
> <friam at redfish.com>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Roger Mcnamee !!??
> This is an interesting direction.
>
> How small a minority does one have to be in, for it to count as an
> arbitrage opportunity? In the El Farol and Minority Game
> abstractions, any minority is enough.
>
> If we think about the dichotomy in public health, or in reason vs.
> hormonal aggression, the split in the US (at least by political
> commitments) is not so far from 50/50. But as far as “profiting
> from the committed wrong”, that market seems to be cornered
> already by a very tiny percent, who have priced in much of the
> available surplus. The difference between the dupes and the
> honest but powerless seems unimportant compared to the difference
> between both of those and the insiders with power, access, and
> control. Somehow these richly structured extensive-form games
> with coalitional solution concepts seem very far from the market
> model in which we often think about arbitrage.
>
> I am also reminded of the aphorism in that other realm “The market
> can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” Or in the
> case of climate, agricultural, and social instability, alive.
>
> I wonder what makes an adequate toolbox of concepts and analogies
> with which to think about this (at least somewhat) systematically.
>
> Eric
>
>
>> On Jan 2, 2022, at 2:58 PM, Marcus Daniels <marcus at snoutfarm.com>
>> wrote:
>>
>> Nick writes:
>>
>> < So, what does a healthy 2040 community look like. What are we
>> working TOWARD, here. Once of the things that the Mcnamee podcast
>> highlighted for me was my feeling that, in a chaotic world,
>> people like me,/planners,/are just out of tune with the world. >
>>
>> I don't think it really matters how people interact in social
>> media or what they think. What will matter is how people adapt
>> to climate change and the exhaustion of food and energy, and the
>> migrations resulting from climate change. That's where the
>> opportunities will be. If there are millions of people that
>> deny it is happening like they deny pandemics, then things simply
>> must be arranged so that the natural accounting occurs. The
>> planners will look past the chaos and make their investments..
>> and wait.
>>
>> Marcus
>> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
>> *From:*Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> on behalf
>> ofthompnickson2 at gmail.com<thompnickson2 at gmail.com>
>> *Sent:*Sunday, January 2, 2022 1:32 PM
>> *To:*'The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group'
>> <friam at redfish.com>
>> *Subject:*Re: [FRIAM] Roger Mcnamee !!??
>> So, what does a healthy 2040 community look like. What are we
>> working TOWARD, here. Once of the things that the Mcnamee podcast
>> highlighted for me was my feeling that, in a chaotic world,
>> people like me,/planners,/are just out of tune with the world.
>>
>> By the way, I think “surfing the web” , as it has been used, is a
>> terrible metaphor. What most of us do is like water skiing the
>> web. Bouncing over the wake, never actually getting into the
>> water. Gives surfing a bad name. A surfer finds the few
>> survivable paths through an immense concentration of hostile
>> forces. Surfing is more like martial arts. In fact we must
>> begin to surf the web. To realize the manners in which its
>> hostile forces constrain us and find the few paths that allow us
>> to master those forces and come out of the curl safely. We
>> thought it was a playground; now we see it’s a minefield.
>>
>> n
>>
>> Nick Thompson
>> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com <mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com>
>> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwordpress.clarku.edu%2fnthompson%2f&c=E,1,-Fd2M0MU4wX5y1N6mhhnNrFlsG64cdcJ8jOErlxB0hvFzR4dcEnKSSt2EqX5s2fb-wPOBqSH4X2Ap1mYP24zv3_muYGYijRLpnFKTxxN3dQyGtSp1B6x&typo=1>
>>
>> *From:*Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com>*On Behalf Of*Marcus Daniels
>> *Sent:*Sunday, January 2, 2022 2:18 PM
>> *To:*The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
>> <friam at redfish.com>
>> *Subject:*Re: [FRIAM] Roger Mcnamee !!??
>>
>> Nick writes:
>>
>> < Imagined a world in which we all worked at home, everything was
>> on zoom, and everything was delivered by Amazon by drone. I
>> realize this is a reductio, but hum along with me for a few
>> bars. There would be no intermediate social landscape between
>> the home and the distribution center. No intermediate human scales.
>>
>> I can’t say immediately why this would be a bad thing, but my gut
>> doesn’t like it.>
>>
>> I can't think of many examples where the intermediate scales are
>> anything but wasteful or intrusive. Maybe to see a tailor
>> coupled to the purchase of certain clothes? I still drive to
>> services (dentist, doctor, hair stylist), just not to
>> redistributors, because they don't really add anything. There's
>> still a farmer's market that seems as popular as ever -- but they
>> DO offer something unique. I can drive five minutes to Home
>> Depot but honestly half the time their inventory is exhausted for
>> what I want, and I end up ordering it online.
>>
>> Marcus
>>
>> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
>> *From:*Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> on behalf
>> ofthompnickson2 at gmail.com<thompnickson2 at gmail.com>
>> *Sent:*Sunday, January 2, 2022 1:03 PM
>> *To:*'The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group'
>> <friam at redfish.com>
>> *Subject:*Re: [FRIAM] Roger Mcnamee !!??
>>
>> Marcus,
>>
>> I would like to be convinced …. But
>>
>> Imagined a world in which we all worked at home, everything was
>> on zoom, and everything was delivered by Amazon by drone. I
>> realize this is a reductio, but hum along with me for a few bars.
>> There would be no intermediate social landscape between the home
>> and the distribution center. No intermediate human scales.
>>
>> I can’t say immediately why this would be a bad thing, but my gut
>> doesn’t like it.
>>
>> Nick
>>
>> Nick Thompson
>> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com
>> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwordpress.clarku.edu%2fnthompson%2f&c=E,1,p4rsPfl7qCnkvPDXzYT5M-1fZBZKaCDIB1z2Osc-CfFDLgw598S0mD13_Sppk4ua_2uMIZVWNAECmtZ8s2kblHg2quJex4YawfboMGbRTDU_u15bu8836eLAHQ,,&typo=1>
>>
>> *From:*Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com>*On Behalf Of*Marcus Daniels
>> *Sent:*Sunday, January 2, 2022 1:38 PM
>> *To:*'The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group'
>> <friam at redfish.com>
>> *Subject:*Re: [FRIAM] Roger Mcnamee !!??
>>
>> I can see living without Facebook (I do), but why can't we live
>> with Amazon? It seems like they did a pretty good job of
>> displacing the likes of Walmart. It could happen again. What
>> added inherent value do stores have, other than as a mechanism to
>> prevent he consolidation of market influence w.r.t. to prices?
>> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
>> *From:*Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> on behalf
>> ofthompnickson2 at gmail.com<thompnickson2 at gmail.com>
>> *Sent:*Sunday, January 2, 2022 12:03 PM
>> *To:*'The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group'
>> <friam at redfish.com>
>> *Subject:*[FRIAM] Roger Mcnamee !!??
>>
>> I just listened to this podcast
>>
>> https://feeds.megaphone.fm/VMP5489734702
>> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2ffeeds.megaphone.fm%2fVMP5489734702&c=E,1,G87ToIzgI5DT4ZpiKuXcRc2EHcS4lpVgIftU98yiNor7PFNa9lCoDMtpA2GT4_2eudXeeatF6BgR-Peqwvf8pBQOnsbOiuYBI693rGSZCjDA8-JbvEUZ&typo=1>
>>
>> a conversation between the former prosecutor, Joyce Vance, and
>> the musician, financier, turncoat Facebook investor Roger
>> Mcnamee, who likens this moment with big tech to the moment
>> before the food industry regulations of the early 1900’s and
>> anti-pollution legislation of the 60’s, moments when Da People
>> reasserted control over over-weening industry interests. He is
>> author of the book,/Zucked/.
>>
>> An hour-long pod cast is a terribly inefficient way to learn
>> about something, so I hope that one you, for whom none of this is
>> news, can offer a more condensed source.
>>
>> We are basically talking about the Amazon paradox, here: can’t
>> live with it; can’t live without it. How much ARE we willing to
>> pay to have the trains run on time?
>>
>> As usual, I am in need of instruction.
>>
>> Nick Thompson
>> ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com
>> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwordpress.clarku.edu%2fnthompson%2f&c=E,1,AekdfP2MBl31iUxGjknOMPY6CLKTWZ0Uy_4dTUwGKgNke6kg7BN0qwu3VC8xzay12y6vtDYGszhL0ussBgpgtjOzZjJu9AWkUutwzgaFOibLSYQ0DDICSZg,&typo=1>
>>
>>
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