[FRIAM] Cautionary Tales: CliFi

[Marcus Daniels]

With ubiquitous, inexpensive energy, electrocatalysis could be used to convert carbon dioxide to clean hydrogen fuel.

From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> On Behalf Of Steve Smith
Sent: Thursday, January 27, 2022 7:26 PM
To: friam at redfish.com
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Cautionary Tales: CliFi



On 1/27/22 5:17 PM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-04281-w


If only ubiquitous, inexpensive energy was the solution to (or the lack of it the root rather than one of the symptoms of) our overshoot problems.

I believe it is yet another installment in what seems to be a series of piecewise Sigmoid curves... exponential growth that gives way to (self-limiting) asymptotic "saturation"  which then yields a qualitative jump to the next paradigm/technology.  (from human power to animal power to wind/river to coal-steam to internal combustion/turbine to fission to fusion)...  each one with it's "horseshit parable" of unintended (but surely predictable in some sense) consequences.

We are better at kicking the can down the road or engaging in a Red-Queen style "race against ourselves" than anything.

The electrification of many things *does* relieve a bunch of endemic problems to fossil-fuels whle offering some of the efficiencies of scale (gas fired turbine is more efficient than an oversized V8 ICE idling at every stoplight and in the parking lot to keep the HVAC/Radio running in spite of the losses to transmission/storage/motors/etc.) and while I might enumerate some of the more obvious un(der) spoken to problems, I doubt even the strongest opponents (from the dark-brown right and the bright green right) can have a good understanding of what unintended/expected consequences are implied.

I've become quite the techno/progress-luddite in spite of having a strong affinity to both.   I studied Physics and joined LANL and worked on myriad projects (still do) with the illusion that if I helped just kick the can a little harder or help the red queen run a little faster, it would change the nature of those games fundamentally.

I can't see that it has.   Musk is trying to kick our cans from fossil fuel extraction/combustion/spills to Lithium (and heavy metals) extraction/discarding as well as the can of an out of-balance biosphere on earth to terraforming Mars (with care and thoughtful intention and no unexpected side-effects?).

It is all well out of my control (except my own habits/consumption/behaviour) but I can't help noting that most if not all of my "best ideas" have turned out to be variations on "kick the can" and "red queen".

Gramble,

 - Steve





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