[FRIAM] what's the view from Europe?

[Marcus Daniels]

For now, convoys coming out of Poland or other countries can try to disguise arms as humanitarian relief.
One could imagine that Javelins could be hidden in small trucks.   It gets harder to disguise a MiG-29.

But there’s no plausible deniability here about Javelins and other weapons intended for Ukraine.   The stated intent of NATO and the US is to enable Ukrainian armed forces to kill Russian soldiers.   At some point, probably relatively soon, it won’t be possible to smuggle large volumes of advanced weapons into Ukraine.   Then what?    Wait for Putin to knock on the door of a NATO country?   He’ll say, “but I have tactical nuclear weapons”, what are you going to do? [1]

Another option is to declare that convoys to and from Ukraine will get NATO escorts.   Then it is on the Russians to escalate:  Don’t you dare shoot at us.
I don’t see any way that Putin can be allowed to come out of this.   His military needs to be degraded.   It can happen now, or it can happen later.   If it happens later there are going to be a lot of dead Ukrainians.   At this point I wouldn’t be surprised if he wants it to be a radioactive DMZ.

Marcus

[1] https://www.russiamatters.org/analysis/escalate-deescalate-part-russias-nuclear-toolbox

From: Friam <friam-bounces at redfish.com> On Behalf Of Steve Smith
Sent: Saturday, March 5, 2022 8:09 PM
To: friam at redfish.com
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] what's the view from Europe?



On 3/4/22 8:29 PM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
https://twitter.com/Kasparov63/status/1499440540290584583

I started watching this guy (Beau of the Fifth Column) semi-regularly months ago even though his affect triggers a lot of my attempts to ignore my own redneck roots.   I don't think I've mentioned him before... I half expect Glen is already clued in to him.  It is hard to see/hear him without expecting to hear the Trump Train tooting in the background, but he's quite the opposite.  Scary relevant/clued in/clear IMO.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sPzQ1DyGZHs

This "episode" felt like a powerful smack-down of those (politicians/pundits?) who are rattling "no fly" sabers.   To summarize, my takeaway was "if you think you can establish a no-fly zone in Ukraine, it would be yonks better to keep your powder dry and do a first strike because a no-fly *will* be Putin's pretext, even though he'll likely find another anyway".

In personal anecdote space, Mary's nephew  in Madison WI hosted a young woman from Ukraine as an exchange student a few years ago.   They did a GoFundme to raise the cash to do everything they could to get her out.  She was hunkered down 80 miles East of Kyiv  on a farm she was interning (organic farming) on... all the women and children evacuated  fairly early on but they didn't have room for all so she and another young woman stayed behind.    In the last two days, she worked her way from there to Lviv (<50 miles from Poland) and hopes to make it to the border where the current time just standing in line to be processed is order 20 hours (according to her) though Poland has no document requirements...   if you show up at the border and you are not a military age (16-60?) age male they take your name and try to help you figure out what to do next I guess.    The nephew and wife who are expecting their second child any day now are trying to get her here to their rural homestead to live indefinitely.   Otherwise (imminent birth) her nephew would be in Poland to meet her.

My Ukrainian colleagues are still incommunicado with me, but our mutual colleagues who have remained engaged (Matt and Janire of 4Pi Productions, some of you met/knew through SFx... English/Spanish) speak with the non-Russian of the duo (Yuri) every day or two.   They are hyper-focused capable 40-somethings and at least Yuri will be one of the guys figuring out how to pry the tracks off of tanks with prosumer drones or something.

I have one other Ukranian (Karkeiv) contact that I have only had one brief contact with a couple of days ago.  She is a lot less resourceful and in spite of having power, water, even internet (intermittently) doesn't know what to do beyond hiding in her basement (apartment building) everytime there is a air raid warning.   She wasn't able to give me enough info in our brief exchange to know how to even begin to help her personally.    Right now financial aid in general (as per Glen's ideations against over-focusing on only helping people you know) seems like the "most/least" we can do.

My former NREL colleague (now IOHK/Global ala Cardano/Ada) has 12 colleagues in Ukraine, he only knew of 2 a week ago and a similar or larger number in Russia) and expects to get more "insider stories" from both quarters "soon".

This feels much bigger in my lifetime than 9/11, Iraq/Afghanistan, COVID, even Trump....   maybe it is the proximity in time, or a lifetime of cold-war spectre.









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