[FRIAM] Don't forget your flu shots, ...

Thu Sep 15 11:00:36 EDT 2022

>From The Hill, below.  The burden is that the flu season is going to be
lousy, and that some are doubting the Administration's recommendation that
one get the covid and flu vaccine at the same time.  Apparently getting the
flu vaccine too early can lead to it's effectiveness waning in the late
winter.  So, perhaps get your booster today and your flooster late in
October?  I have already had both, so my die is cast.  

(Signed)

NannyNIck

Health experts are warning the nation to brace for what could be an
exceptionally severe flu season this fall and winter, as more people who
have not built up immunity over the last few years mix and mingle. There are
two big reasons why more people could be vulnerable to the flu this year.  

The first is that with coronavirus restrictions such as the wearing of masks
all but forgotten, people are more likely to come into contact with the flu
virus this year than over the last two years.  The second reason is that
fewer people are likely to be immune from the flu virus this year because
fewer people have been getting the flu over the last two years - as the
pandemic locked people down and as people worried more about getting
COVID-19.  

Richard Webby, a virologist at St. Jude Children's Research Hospital's
infectious diseases department, said the past two flu seasons simply have
not seen the same levels of exposure to the flu. 

"As a population, our immunity to the flu is down a bit," Webby said. "When
the virus comes back, it's probably going to have a little bit more room to
spread, a little bit more room to potentially cause disease." 

In a normal year, exposure to the influenza virus generates some community
immunity as about 10 to 30 percent of people are exposed to the flu in a
normal season. But fewer people were exposed in 2020 and 2021, resulting in
a decline in natural immunity. For example, pediatric flu deaths normally
exceeded 100 every year before the pandemic.  

But the past two flu seasons have seen reported pediatric flu deaths fall
under 40, with only one pediatric death confirmed in 2020. This lowered
population immunity means that people are at a higher risk of contracting
the flu this year, according to Webby. 

Amesh Adalja, <https://thehill.com/people/amesh-adalja/>  senior scholar at
the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security at the Bloomberg School of
Public Health, said the flu season for the past two years has essentially
been "nonexistent" and added that this trend was always bound to end once
social distancing became less practiced.  According to Adalja, evidence of
the flu picking back up is a sign that people are returning to "some
semblance of their life pre-COVID."  

The Southern Hemisphere is giving the United States a preview of sorts of
what is to come.  It's been winter in the Southern Hemisphere, and those
countries have experienced a tough flu season. Australia, as one example,
experienced its worst flu season in five years, with the rate of cases
peaking earlier than it usually does in the country.  In both 2020 and 2021,
the Australian Department of Health and Aged Care noted a lower rate of
reported flu cases and severity, with only 37 laboratory-confirmed
flu-associated deaths reported in 2020 and zero reported in 2021. Flu
hospitalizations and deaths reached an all-time low in Australia last year. 

There were nearly 600 cases of laboratory-confirmed influenza in Australia
in 2021. During this year's flu season, the country has reported more than
217,000 cases, though this is still lower than in 2019, when Australia
reported more than 300,000 cases, the highest number of cases on record for
the country. 

Webby noted flu deaths and hospitalizations in Australia were still
relatively low this year despite the sizable flu season that the country
saw. Deaths and hospitalizations are largely driven by infections among the
elderly, and Australia still practiced precautions when it came to this
demographic. 

If such precautions are also taken in the U.S., then higher flu
hospitalizations and deaths could similarly be avoided, Webby said. 

Experts who spoke with The Hill agreed that what was observed in the
Southern Hemisphere appeared to be something of a return to a normal flu
season, one that was not "suppressed" by the COVID-19 pandemic. Both Webby
and Adalja were doubtful that a "twindemic" of both flu and coronavirus
would occur this year.  "I don't think that these two viruses can sort of go
gangbusters at the same time," Webby said.   

With the recent authorization of the bivalent COVID-19 booster dose, the
White House has begun recommending that people receive both their booster
shots and flu shots at the same time, hoping to avoid surges of both
viruses.  For the 2022-2023 flu season, the Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention has stated that September and October are good times to get
vaccinated. With many COVID-19-conscious people likely to get their booster
shots sooner than later, some have questioned whether September, when
COVID-19 boosters became available, is too soon to get immunized against the
flu and if it would be better to get the two shots at different times.  

Adalja said it was better to time your flu shot so that it is effective
throughout the entire flu season.  "If you get it too early, there's clear
evidence that it wanes off by the end of the season," he said.
"Traditionally, it peaked around February. So if you're getting a flu shot
now in early September, you can't expect it to be that effective at the tail
end of the flu season. So I've always recommended people get their flu
vaccine sometime in late October."  Adalja further said he did not believe
the White House's recommendation of getting flu shots at the same time as
COVID-19 shots was evidence-based.  "What they're trying to do is increase
uptake of both and come up with a kind of a gimmick for people to get, you
know, a two-for-one, when it really may foul up the efficacy of the flu
vaccine if it's given too early," said Adalja.

Tags Amesh Adalja  <https://thehill.com/people/amesh-adalja/> Coronavirus
<https://thehill.com/social-tags/coronavirus-2/> COVID-19
<https://thehill.com/tag/covid-19/> Flu  <https://thehill.com/tag/flu/> flu
<https://thehill.com/social-tags/flu/> Wint
<https://thehill.com/tag/winter/> 

Nick Thompson

ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com <mailto:ThompNickSon2 at gmail.com> 

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

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