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<p class="MsoNormal">There’s another type of paralysis that does not involve doubt but computation cost in resolving or characterizing doubt:<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">A soon as it takes more time to compute the likely first-order consequences of various potential actions (even using coarse-graining or surrogate models or whatever simplification) than just waiting for time to pass, action is arbitrary.
One could have precise information about all the aspects of a decision but putting it together into a recommendation for action could be too hard. One could probably even prove it is impossible in some cases.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;color:black">From: </span></b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;color:black">Friam <friam-bounces@redfish.com> on behalf of Nick Thompson <nickthompson@earthlink.net><br>
<b>Reply-To: </b>The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam@redfish.com><br>
<b>Date: </b>Tuesday, July 10, 2018 at 9:21 PM<br>
<b>To: </b>'The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group' <friam@redfish.com><br>
<b>Subject: </b>Re: [FRIAM] What's so bad about Scientism?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color:#1F497D">Fascinating response, Marcus.</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color:#1F497D"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color:#1F497D">Does this mean you cannot imagine
</span><span style="font-family:Wingdings;color:#1F497D">è</span><span style="color:#1F497D"> rational</span><span style="font-family:Wingdings;color:#1F497D">ç</span><span style="color:#1F497D"> paralyzing doubt? So, imagine yourself in some situation of
grave consequence, Truman’s decision to use the bomb or Comey’s decision to restart the investigation (or to announce its conclusion in the first place), or one of those “two track” hypotheticals that utilitarian’s are so fond of*, can you imagine yourself,
not anxious, not in need of therapy at all, but unable to act? </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color:#1F497D"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color:#1F497D">I suppose one could have a standard rule: in situations of grave consequence, I do nothing, or I flip a coin.
</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color:#1F497D"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color:#1F497D">In some dire situations animals “freeze”. It’s rational for animals because many predators’ prey- catching systems work on motion. Human decision paralysis might just be an evolutionary hold over.
</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color:#1F497D">Does that make it neurotic or just ill-suited to modern circumstances.
</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color:#1F497D"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color:#1F497D">Nick </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color:#1F497D"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color:#1F497D">*You are the man in charge of a track switch beyond which tied to the tracks, on one side, four French Poodles and on the other side your beloved Aunt Susie. Incidentally, you should also know that the passenger
cars on the train are loaded with a thousand pregnant girl scouts. (So don’t try to jam that switch in the middle, you wise guy!) </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color:#1F497D"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color:#1F497D">Nicholas S. Thompson</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color:#1F497D">Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color:#1F497D">Clark University</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color:#1F497D"><a href="http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/">http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/</a></span><o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color:#1F497D"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><b>From:</b> Friam [mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com] <b>On Behalf Of
</b>Marcus Daniels<br>
<b>Sent:</b> Saturday, July 07, 2018 12:10 PM<br>
<b>To:</b> The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam@redfish.com><br>
<b>Subject:</b> Re: [FRIAM] What's so bad about Scientism?<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText">“By doubt, here, I don't mean entertained doubt. I mean doubt sufficiently profound that one cannot, when one needs to, pursue any course of action. REAL doubt. Paralyzing doubt.”<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText">That’s a different thing, anxiety and/or depression. Treatable with exercise, medication, or therapy.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText">Marcus<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText"> <o:p></o:p></p>
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