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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D'>Thank you, George, <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D'>I will look into it. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D'>Nick <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D'>Nicholas S. Thompson<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D'>Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D'>Clark University<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D'><a href="http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/"><span style='color:#0563C1'>http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'>From:</span></b><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'> Friam [mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com] <b>On Behalf Of </b>George Duncan<br><b>Sent:</b> Saturday, February 02, 2019 11:33 AM<br><b>To:</b> The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <Friam@redfish.com><br><b>Subject:</b> [FRIAM] Learning about Bayesian Statistics<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:18.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>At Friday's church service Nick asked about how one might learn the basics of Bayesian statistics. I said I would think about it, and so here are my conclusions.<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:18.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:18.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>For historical and philosophical background: Read The Emergence of Probability by Ian Hacking<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:18.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:18.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>For a systematic course: Take Coursera, Bayesian Statistics, a course from Duke University with a 7-day free trial. <o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:18.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:18.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>Also of course there are several reasonable texts on Bayesian Statistics.<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:18.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal>George Duncan<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal>Emeritus Professor of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University<br><a href="http://georgeduncanart.com/" target="_blank">georgeduncanart.com</a><o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal>See posts on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal>Land: (505) 983-6895 <o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal>Mobile: (505) 469-4671<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal> <br>My art theme: Dynamic exposition of the tension between matrix order and luminous chaos.<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><div><h1 style='margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;letter-spacing:-.25pt;font-weight:normal'>"Attempt what is not certain. Certainty may or may not come later. It may then be a valuable delusion."</span><span style='letter-spacing:-.25pt'><o:p></o:p></span></h1><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;letter-spacing:-.25pt'>From "Notes to myself on beginning a painting" by Richard Diebenkorn. </span><o:p></o:p></p></div><table class=MsoNormalTable border=0 cellpadding=0 width="85%" style='width:85.0%;border-collapse:collapse!important'><tr><td style='padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'><p align=center style='mso-margin-top-alt:3.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:9.0pt;margin-left:0in;text-align:center'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:#5D5651'>"It's that knife-edge of uncertainty where we come alive to our truest power." Joanna Macy.</span><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif;color:#5D5651'><o:p></o:p></span></p></td></tr><tr><td valign=top style='padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'></td></tr></table><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></body></html>