<html><head><meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"></head><body style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;" class="">You might also like Nate Silver’s book “The Signal and the Noise”. It’s almost non technical and has interesting examples of the use and non use of Bayesian reasoning from the house market collapse to evaluating baseball players. <div class=""><br class=""></div><div class="">Ed<br class=""><div class="">
<div dir="auto" style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;" class=""><div style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none;"><div style="orphans: 2; widows: 2;" class="">____________ </div><div style="orphans: 2; widows: 2;" class=""><br class=""></div><div style="orphans: 2; widows: 2;" class=""><div class="">Ed Angel<br class=""><br class=""></div><div class="">Founding Director, Art, Research, Technology and Science Laboratory (ARTS Lab)<br class="">Professor Emeritus of Computer Science, University of New Mexico<br class=""><br class="">1017 Sierra Pinon</div><div class="">Santa Fe, NM 87501<br class="">505-984-0136 (home)<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span> <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span><a href="mailto:angel@cs.unm.edu" class="">angel@cs.unm.edu</a></div><div class="">505-453-4944 (cell) <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span><a href="http://www.cs.unm.edu/~angel" class="">http://www.cs.unm.edu/~angel</a><br class=""><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span> <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span></div></div></div><br class="Apple-interchange-newline"></div><br class="Apple-interchange-newline">
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<div><br class=""><blockquote type="cite" class=""><div class="">On Feb 3, 2019, at 12:03 AM, George Duncan <<a href="mailto:gtduncan@gmail.com" class="">gtduncan@gmail.com</a>> wrote:</div><br class="Apple-interchange-newline"><div class=""><div dir="ltr" class=""><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:tahoma,sans-serif;font-size:large">At Friday's church service Nick asked about how one might learn the basics of Bayesian statistics. I said I would think about it, and so here are my conclusions.</div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:tahoma,sans-serif;font-size:large"><br class=""></div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:tahoma,sans-serif;font-size:large">For historical and philosophical background: Read The Emergence of Probability by Ian Hacking</div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:tahoma,sans-serif;font-size:large"><br class=""></div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:tahoma,sans-serif;font-size:large">For a systematic course: Take Coursera, Bayesian Statistics, a course from Duke University with a 7-day free trial. </div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:tahoma,sans-serif;font-size:large"><br class=""></div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:tahoma,sans-serif;font-size:large">Also of course there are several reasonable texts on Bayesian Statistics.</div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:tahoma,sans-serif;font-size:large"><br class=""></div><div class=""><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_signature" data-smartmail="gmail_signature"><div dir="ltr" class=""><div class=""><div dir="ltr" class=""><div class=""><div dir="ltr" class=""><div dir="ltr" class=""><div dir="ltr" class=""><div dir="ltr" class=""><div class="">George Duncan</div><div class="">Emeritus Professor of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University<br class=""><a href="http://georgeduncanart.com/" target="_blank" class="">georgeduncanart.com</a></div><div class="">See posts on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram</div>
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<div class=""> <br class="">My art theme: Dynamic exposition of the tension between matrix order and luminous chaos.<br class=""></div><div class=""><br class=""></div><div class=""><h1 style="letter-spacing:-0.02em;margin:0px" class=""><font size="2" face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-weight:normal" class="">"Attempt what is not certain. Certainty may or may not come later. It may then be a valuable delusion."</font></h1><div class=""><span style="font-size:small;letter-spacing:-0.02em;line-height:1.125em" class=""><font face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif" class="">From "Notes to myself on beginning a painting" by Richard Diebenkorn. </font></span></div><table width="85%" style="color:rgb(93,86,81);font-family:Helvetica;font-size:18px;margin:auto;border-collapse:collapse!important" class=""><tbody class=""><tr class=""><td style="text-align:center" class=""><p style="margin-top:4px;margin-bottom:12px" class=""><font size="2" class="">"It's that knife-edge of uncertainty where we come alive to our truest power." Joanna Macy.</font></p></td></tr><tr class=""><td valign="top" style="font-size:13px;text-transform:uppercase" class=""><p style="margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:27px;color:rgb(146,146,146);text-align:center" class=""><br class=""></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div>
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