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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal>Marcus, <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>I haven\u2019t known a Marxist for many years, but I think this corresponds to a dictum of Marxist thought: <b><i>Stop Feeding the Dinosaur!</i></b><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>That may, of course, be the best utilitarian strategy, the strategy with the least suffering in the long run. Some comments: as a higher-life-form chauvinist, to join you in your opinion, I would have first to assume that human beings didn\u2019t end their existence with a nuclear \u2026 um \u2026 event. Second, I guess I am not a utilitarian, because I keep thinking of my grandchildren. I don\u2019t think anybody with grand children can take your rational position to heart. <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Whatever \u201cheart\u201d is. <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Nick <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><p class=MsoNormal>Nicholas Thompson<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Clark University<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><a href="mailto:ThompNickSon2@gmail.com"><span style='color:#0563C1'>ThompNickSon2@gmail.com</span></a><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><a href="https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/"><span style='color:#0563C1'>https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/</span></a><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in'><p class=MsoNormal><b>From:</b> Friam <friam-bounces@redfish.com> <b>On Behalf Of </b>Marcus Daniels<br><b>Sent:</b> Wednesday, January 1, 2020 12:45 PM<br><b>To:</b> doug carmichael <doug@dougcarmichael.com>; The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam@redfish.com><br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [FRIAM] climate change questions<o:p></o:p></p></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'>It seems to me the solution is to do nothing. The world has to become relatively toxic and inhospitable. Then people will be unable or unwilling to reproduce, the population will drop, and the earth can heal. <o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center'><hr size=2 width="98%" align=center></div><div id=divRplyFwdMsg><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='color:black'>From:</span></b><span style='color:black'> Friam <<a href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com">friam-bounces@redfish.com</a>> on behalf of doug carmichael <<a href="mailto:doug@dougcarmichael.com">doug@dougcarmichael.com</a>><br><b>Sent:</b> Wednesday, January 1, 2020 12:37 PM<br><b>To:</b> The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <<a href="mailto:friam@redfish.com">friam@redfish.com</a>><br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [FRIAM] climate change questions</span> <o:p></o:p></p><div><p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p></div></div><div><p style='text-indent:13.5pt;font-stretch:normal'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif'>Let\u2019s say we are able to bring the price of solar generated electricity below that of electricity generated by fossil fuels. This leaves several important questions: <o:p></o:p></span></p><p style='text-indent:13.5pt;font-stretch:normal;min-height:18.4px'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p style='text-indent:13.5pt;font-stretch:normal'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif'>Who pays for replacing the gas heater with an electric heater? That includes installation and remodeling costs as well as the cost for the device. The energy companies will work hard to make sure we generate that electricity with oil and gas - and more coal than we want to acknowledge. The number of new electric heaters that would have to be manufactured is on the order of 50-100 million for the US, and what of half the world that still cooks on open fires? Such manufacturing is going to produce more pollution and use even more energy. It requires old technologies of mining the minerals and producing the plastics that go into the manufacturing these units, as well as their transportation from mine to factory, and from the factory to homes. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><p class=MsoNormal>doug<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><br><br><o:p></o:p></p><blockquote style='margin-top:5.0pt;margin-bottom:5.0pt'><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:12.0pt'>On Jan 1, 2020, at 11:26 AM, Prof David West <<a href="mailto:profwest@fastmail.fm">profwest@fastmail.fm</a>> wrote:<o:p></o:p></p></blockquote></div><blockquote style='margin-top:5.0pt;margin-bottom:5.0pt'><div><p class=MsoNormal>\ufeff <o:p></o:p></p><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>forgive me, but "it is clear" implies that there is no other alternative. I don't believe that because I have read myriad ways of remediating the consequences of that use. Those alternatives are expensive, but more expensive than the social and economic consequences of ending fossil fuels?<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>If the only solution is one that will not be utilized, do we simply resign ourselves to the inevitable?<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>davew<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal>On Wed, Jan 1, 2020, at 8:16 PM, Douglass Carmichael wrote:<o:p></o:p></p></div><blockquote style='margin-top:5.0pt;margin-bottom:5.0pt' id="x_qt"><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>We are stuck at the point where, to stay under 1.5 or 2, it is clear that we must cut fossil fuel extraction and use and there is no existing politics todo it because it mans loss of jobs, failures of mortgages, collapse of banks - and starvation. And this is Implies that we must move toward powerful centralization and decentralization at the same time.<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>doug<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><blockquote style='margin-top:5.0pt;margin-bottom:5.0pt'><div><p class=MsoNormal>On Jan 1, 2020, at 10:55 AM, <<a href="mailto:thompnickson2@gmail.com">thompnickson2@gmail.com</a>> <<a href="mailto:thompnickson2@gmail.com">thompnickson2@gmail.com</a>> wrote:<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal>Friammers:<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal>Let\u2019s constitute ourselves as the \u201cclimate change jury\u201d. The jury can have a conviction but only if we all agree. Otherwise we remain a hung jury. <span class=xqt-apple-converted-space> </span><o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal>So, does the Jury agree that with Dr. Kwok of JPL that \u201c \u2026 sea level rise, disappearing sea ice, melting ice sheets and other changes are happening\u201d?<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal>If, so, is the jury prepared to convict human activities for causing those changes?<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal>I am polling the jury.<span class=xqt-apple-converted-space> </span><o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal>Nick<span class=xqt-apple-converted-space> </span><o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal>Nicholas Thompson<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal>Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal>Clark University<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><a href="mailto:ThompNickSon2@gmail.com"><span class=xcolour><span style='color:#0563C1'>ThompNickSon2@gmail.com</span></span></a><o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><a href="https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/"><span class=xcolour><span style='color:#0563C1'>https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/</span></span></a><o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p></div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>From:</span></b><span class=xqt-apple-converted-space><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'> </span></span><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>Friam <<a href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com"><span style='color:purple'>friam-bounces@redfish.com</span></a>><span class=xqt-apple-converted-space> </span><b>On Behalf Of<span class=xqt-apple-converted-space> </span></b>Frank Wimberly<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>Sent:</span></b><span class=xqt-apple-converted-space><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'> </span></span><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>Wednesday, January 1, 2020 11:27 AM<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>To:</span></b><span class=xqt-apple-converted-space><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'> </span></span><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <<a href="mailto:friam@redfish.com"><span style='color:purple'>friam@redfish.com</span></a>><o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>Subject:</span></b><span class=xqt-apple-converted-space><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'> </span></span><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>Re: [FRIAM] climate change questions<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><div><p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p></div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal>From NASA:<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/16/is-it-too-late-to-prevent-climate-change/"><span style='color:purple'>https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/16/is-it-too-late-to-prevent-climate-change/</span></a><o:p></o:p></p></div></div><div><p class=xqt-msonormal style='margin-bottom:12.0pt'><span class=xsize> </span><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Palatino-Roman",serif'><o:p></o:p></span></p><div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>-----------------------------------<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>Frank Wimberly<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>My memoir:<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><a href="https://www.amazon.com/author/frankwimberly"><span style='color:purple'>https://www.amazon.com/author/frankwimberly</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>My scientific publications:<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Frank_Wimberly2"><span style='color:purple'>https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Frank_Wimberly2</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>Phone (505) 670-9918<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div></div></div></div><div><p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p></div><div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal>On Wed, Jan 1, 2020, 11:24 AM Frank Wimberly <<a href="mailto:wimberly3@gmail.com"><span style='color:purple'>wimberly3@gmail.com</span></a>> wrote:<o:p></o:p></p></div></div><blockquote style='border:none;border-left:solid #CCCCCC 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-top:5.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:5.0pt'><div><div><p class=MsoNormal>What scares me is recent assertions that we have passed the tipping point and there is nothing we can do about it. I have no references.<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p></div></div><div><p class=xqt-msonormal style='margin-bottom:12.0pt'><span class=xsize>Frank</span><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Palatino-Roman",serif'><o:p></o:p></span></p><div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>-----------------------------------<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>Frank Wimberly<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>My memoir:<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><a href="https://www.amazon.com/author/frankwimberly"><span style='color:purple'>https://www.amazon.com/author/frankwimberly</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>My scientific publications:<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Frank_Wimberly2"><span style='color:purple'>https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Frank_Wimberly2</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>Phone (505) 670-9918<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div></div></div></div><div><p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p></div><div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal>On Wed, Jan 1, 2020, 11:09 AM <<a href="mailto:thompnickson2@gmail.com"><span style='color:purple'>thompnickson2@gmail.com</span></a>> wrote:<o:p></o:p></p></div></div><blockquote style='border:none;border-left:solid #CCCCCC 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-top:5.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:5.0pt'><div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>Dave,<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>I like these questions, and I think The Congregation should take them as a<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>challenge.<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>What can we-all, we who have long association, and a generalized (if<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>somewhat guarded) respect, come to agree upon with respect to climate change<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>and human activity? By what process, with what attitudes, by what rules of<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>engagement, are we likely to arrive at ANY truth of that matter. Because,<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>if we, here, cannot agree on some matters, agreement would seem to be beyond<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>human reach.<span class=xqt-apple-converted-space> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>So, for starters, I find I am inclined to disagree with your facts as<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>stated. They seem to assert that Things (whatever Things are) are not as<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>bad as they were predicted to be. Yet, I find, I am inclined to believe<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>that in fact Things are worse. The only specific data I feel I have been<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>exposed to recently is ocean surface rise and glacial melting. But even<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>there, I would be hard pressed to match your specific references to any of<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>my own. So, I guess the conclusion is, I disagree, but I don't know what I<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>am talking about. Ugh!<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>I could (after some labor) cite data to support the following concern: what<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>we should be watching out for, perhaps more than long term climate warming,<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>is increases in year-to-year climate variability. You can grow rape seed in<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>Canada and maize in the US, and as the climate alters, the bands of climate<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>supporting these two crops will move north. But what happens if one year<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>the climate demands one crop and the next the other? And the switch from<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>one to the other is entirely unpredictable. Anybody who plants a garden<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>knows that only two dates have a tremendous effect on the productivity of<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>your garden: first frost and last frost. The average frost free period in<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>my garden in Ma 135 days or so, but only a few miles away, it is as short as<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>90. And while we have never had a 90 day frost year, we have had last frost<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>dates in June and first frost dates in early September. It would take a<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>very small year-to-year increase in variability to turn my garden from<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>something that could support life for a year in New England into a 30 x 50<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>wasteplot. <span class=xqt-apple-converted-space> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>I think I could show you that the period in which we live, the Holocene, is<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>a period of remarkably low, year-to-year, variation in climate VARIABILITY.<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>I think I could convince you that everything that has occurred in the last<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>ten thousand years by way of civilization is entirely dependent on that<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>anomalous stability. The neanderthals were not too stupid to do<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>agriculture; the climate of the Pleistocene would not permit it. The whole<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>idea of nation states depends on the idea that one can make more or less the<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>same kind of living by staying more or less in the same place and doing more<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>or less the same thing. A return to Pleistocene year-to-year variation<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>would obliterate that possibility. <span class=xqt-apple-converted-space> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>If then, I could convince you, that --quite apart from Global Warming-- we<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>are seeing an increase in climate variability, then, by God, I think I could<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>scare the Living Crap out of you. <span class=xqt-apple-converted-space> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>The only question is whether we have the energy and sitzfleisch to do it,<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>and some way to keep our correspondence is order so that it's value could be<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>harvested for the long run.<span class=xqt-apple-converted-space> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>Happy New Year!<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>Nick<span class=xqt-apple-converted-space> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>Nicholas Thompson<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>Clark University<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><a href="mailto:ThompNickSon2@gmail.com"><span style='color:purple'>ThompNickSon2@gmail.com</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><a href="https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/"><span style='color:purple'>https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>-----Original Message-----<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>From: Friam <<a href="mailto:friam-bounces@redfish.com"><span style='color:purple'>friam-bounces@redfish.com</span></a>> On Behalf Of Prof David West<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>Sent: Wednesday, January 1, 2020 9:45 AM<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>To:<span class=xqt-apple-converted-space> </span><a href="mailto:friam@redfish.com"><span style='color:purple'>friam@redfish.com</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>Subject: [FRIAM] climate change questions<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>Questions, that do NOT, in any manner or form deny the reality of climate<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>change.<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>In 1990, citing the "best scientific models available" stated that because<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>of carbon dioxide emissions, the Earth would warm by an average of 3 degrees<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>Fahrenheit and the U.S. as the largest producer, by an average of 6 degrees<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>Fahrenheit by 2020.<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>The UN IPCC report of the same year predicted a range of temperature<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>increases ranging from 1-5 degrees F, with the most likely expectations<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>being 3-5 by the year 2020.<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>The current report predicts a rise of 2-5 degrees by 2100.<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>The New York Times, CNN, and the President of Exxon USA predicted the end of<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>domestic oil and gas reserves by 2020.<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>The undisputed rise in Earth (and US) temperature as of 2020 is 1 degree.<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>Exactly how does one go about constructing a reasoned, and accurate,<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>argument for the need to address climate change in the context of badly<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>incorrect predictions, grounded in the best available scientific models, and<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>over-hyped "disaster scenarios" promulgated by those with political or<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>simply "circulation" motives.<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>In light of this context of "error" and "hype," is it fair to tar everyone<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>expressing questions or doubts with the same "deny-er" brush?<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>Is it possible to constructively criticize either the models or the proposed<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>"solutions" without being dismissed as a troglodyte "deny-er?"<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>Is there a way to evaluate a spectrum of means (eliminating coal to carbon<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>scrubbers to ...) along with analyses of cost/benefit ratios, human<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>socio-economic impact, etc. and compare them?<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>Is there more than one strategy for getting out of this mess; and if so, how<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>do we decide (and/or construct a blend) on one that will optimize our<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>chances?<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>davew<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>============================================================<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><a href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com"><span style='color:purple'>http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>archives back to 2003:<span class=xqt-apple-converted-space> </span><a href="http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/"><span style='color:purple'>http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>FRIAM-COMIC<span class=xqt-apple-converted-space> </span><a href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/"><span style='color:purple'>http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</span></a><span class=xqt-apple-converted-space> </span>by Dr. Strangelove<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>============================================================<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>to unsubscribe<span class=xqt-apple-converted-space> </span><a href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com"><span style='color:purple'>http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>archives back to 2003:<span class=xqt-apple-converted-space> </span><a href="http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/"><span style='color:purple'>http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'>FRIAM-COMIC<span class=xqt-apple-converted-space> </span><a href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/"><span style='color:purple'>http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</span></a><span class=xqt-apple-converted-space> </span>by Dr. Strangelove<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div></blockquote></div></blockquote></div></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span class=xsize><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Palatino-Roman",serif'>============================================================</span></span><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span class=xsize><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Palatino-Roman",serif'>FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv</span></span><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span class=xsize><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Palatino-Roman",serif'>Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College</span></span><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span class=xsize><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Palatino-Roman",serif'>to unsubscribe</span></span><span class=xqt-apple-converted-space><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Palatino-Roman",serif'> </span></span><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><a href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com"><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Palatino-Roman",serif;color:purple'>http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span class=xsize><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Palatino-Roman",serif'>archives back to 2003:</span></span><span class=xqt-apple-converted-space><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Palatino-Roman",serif'> </span></span><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><a href="http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/"><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Palatino-Roman",serif;color:purple'>http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span class=xsize><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Palatino-Roman",serif'>FRIAM-COMIC</span></span><span class=xqt-apple-converted-space><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Palatino-Roman",serif'> </span></span><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><a href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/"><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Palatino-Roman",serif;color:purple'>http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</span></a></span><span class=xqt-apple-converted-space><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Palatino-Roman",serif'> </span></span><span class=xsize><span style='font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Palatino-Roman",serif'>by Dr. Strangelove</span></span><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div></blockquote></div></div><div><p class=MsoNormal>============================================================<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal>FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal>Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal>to unsubscribe <a href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com">http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</a><o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal>archives back to 2003: <a href="http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/">http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/</a><o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal>FRIAM-COMIC <a href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/">http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</a> by Dr. Strangelove<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div></blockquote><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><p class=MsoNormal>============================================================<br>FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv<br>Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College<br>to unsubscribe <a href="http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com">http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</a><br>archives back to 2003: <a href="http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/">http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/</a><br>FRIAM-COMIC <a href="http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/">http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/</a> by Dr. Strangelove<o:p></o:p></p></div></blockquote></div></div></body></html>